SMER PICKS UP MOMENTUM IN RACE TO FORM GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000499

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: SMER PICKS UP MOMENTUM IN RACE TO FORM GOVERNMENT

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 491


B. BRATISLAVA 494

C. BRATISLAVA 471

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The morning of June 20, President
Gasparovic made good on his promise to charge Smer chairman
Robert Fico with forming a new government (reftels). Fico
immediately offered cooperation to Hungarian party SMK and
Christian Democratic Movement KDH. According to sources in
all three parties, SMK is ready to cooperate with Smer; KDH's
presidium is split, but a narrow majority of the KDH
leadership prefers cooperation with Smer. As the day
progressed, it appeared that Smer gained significant
momentum, while PM Dzurinda's early efforts to sew up a
"three plus one" coalition of SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS was
undermined by continuing opposition of some KDH leaders to
working with former PM Vladimir Meciar. SDKU meets with SMK
June 21, but the focus remains on KDH. SDKU presumably will
re-energize an effort to persuade KDH not to join Smer.
Despite the slight lift in the political fog, we anticipate a
coalition may not be announced for several more days, and
agreement on a government program and the distribution of
ministries could take even more time. END SUMMARY.

SMER REACHES OUT TO HUNGARIANS, CHRISTIAN DEMS
-------------- -


2. (C) President Gasparovic officially gave Smer the
mandate to form a governing coalition during a morning
meeting June 20 with Smer chairman Robert Fico. Sources from
all three parties involved confirmed press reports that Fico
made a first offer to SMK and KDH, which would officially
swap Smer for Dzurinda's SDKU. SMK says it has no problem
with the proposal; SMK spokeswoman Livia Solymos told us that
it is not yet official, but confirmed that SMK is inclined to
accept the coalition. Smer insider and newly elected MP
Juraj Horvath told us through his deputy Katarina Nevedalova
that he was meeting with SMK this afternoon, and that
negotiations between Smer-KDH-SMK were moving "to the next
level."

KDH STILL HUDDLED UP...
--------------


3. (C) Meanwhile, Michal Dyttert, formerly spokesperson for
KDH's Pavol Hrusovsky when he was Chairman of the National
Assembly, told us the afternoon of June 20 that the KDH
presidium is divided 6 to 5 in favor of going with Smer. He
was confident this majority would prevail. Former KDH MP
Jozef Miklusicak told us in the morning that KDH was still
discussing its course of action, but is inclined to join a
Smer-KDH-SMK coalition.


4. (C) Dyttert said that KDH places high priority on the
Ministries of Interior, Labor and Social Affairs, and
Education, and that chairman Pavol Hrusovsky wants to be
chairman of parliament again. These Ministries --
particularly Interior and Labor and Social Affairs -- are
likely to be high on the agendas of all parties, as they
control a significant percentage of the EU funds which come
into Slovakia. Although Smer's Horvath told us that he
thought any hesitation by KDH -- and particularly former
Minister of Justice Daniel Lipsic -- might be overcome by
offering Lipsic the foreign ministry, a position in which he
previously expressed interest. Dyttert, however, said Lipsic
has "burned all bridges" in the last few days with his public
statements that cooperation with Smer would be inappropriate,
and will not be given any Ministry if KDH succeeds in joining
a ruling coalition.

HZDS: KDH WON'T WORK WITH US
--------------


5. (C) HZDS MP Milan Urbani told us the previously floated
"three plus one" coalition of SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS may be dead
due to KDH's impossible-to-meet condition that Meciar be
replaced as HZDS chairman. Dyttert confirmed this, and said
that HZDS may fall apart over time, but at the moment they
are strongly united behind Meciar. Pre-election predictions
of break-away MPs immediately after the vote are so far
proving to be wrong. Urbani is now predicting a Smer-KDH-SNS
government, but said if KDH rejects Smer's offer, HZDS is
willing to make a deal. HZDS may get that chance:
Nevedalova said that if a Smer-KDH-SMK coalition does not
materialize, Smer's second attempt will be Smer-SMK-HZDS.

SMER OUTLINES ITS OBJECTIVES

BRATISLAVA 00000499 002 OF 002


--------------


6. (C) Nevedalova said Smer will place the highest priority
on controlling the Ministries of Interior, Labor and Social
Affairs, Education, Health, and to a lesser extent, Culture.
Smer is not interested in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
because, with no "heir apparent" within its own ranks,
identifying an effective and appropriate Minister would cause
more problems for Smer than it would be worth during crucial
negotiations. Dyttert said KDH does not have a candidate and
does not want the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and SMK cannot
take it because of the ethnic issue (ref C).

SNS MAY NOT BE PALATABLE TO SMER
--------------


7. (C) Smer faces distinct international pressure to not
work with nationalist party SNS. The international media,
Smer's partners within the European Socialist party, and a
large majority of the party's own members -- including Vice
Chairman Robert Kalinak -- are in staunch opposition to any
cooperation with SNS. Still, they admit, cooperation with
SNS has not been ruled out. KDH's Dyttert said that his
party does not want to co-govern with SNS, and has gone so
far as to consider making "ignoring SNS" (which he considers
prone to use the parliament as a backdrop for racist and
incendiary statements) part of any coalition agreement.

ANYTHING REMAINS POSSIBLE (EVEN SMER-SDKU!)
--------------


8. (C) Assuming PM Dzurinda is hearing the same things
about KDH, he will be pulling out the stops to dissuade the
Christian Democrats. In the meantime, Smer seems to be
inching ever closer to a Smer-SMK-KDH coalition, but already
has a backup plan (Smer-SMK-HZDS) as well as a "anything
goes" mentality. Most important for Fico, Smer insiders
readily admit, is that Fico becomes Prime Minister;
everything else is secondary. Thus, cooperation with parties
like HZDS and SNS cannot be ruled out, and Nevedalova even
hinted that the "best coalition" for Slovakia would be
Smer-SDKU, a possibility that has not, she pointed out, been
completely ruled out. In a press conference later in the
afternoon, Fico also dropped the hint, saying that the
Smer-SMK-KDH coalition was a possibility, but not "the most
attractive" for Smer. When pressed, he said Smer had not
ruled out a "big left-to-right" coalition government with
SDKU. COMMENT: At the moment, it looks like Smer-KDH-SMK is
gaining steam and emerging as the favorite. Fico is keeping
his options open to keep his negotiating position strong, and
show KDH and SMK that he can walk away at any moment.
VALLEE