CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000489

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON LO
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 1010


B. BRATISLAVA 476


1. Summary. (U) Slovakia has entered the final countdown to
elections. Polls open Saturday June 17 at 7:00 AM and close
at 10:00 PM (1:00 AM to 4:00 PM EST). The parties are hosting
their grand finale campaign programs, the last polls have
been released, and the final TV debate has been held. Given
the large number of still-undecided voters, these last
campaign events have the potential to be quite influential.
We offer our impressions of some recent events.

LATEST POLLS
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2. (U) In the last pre-election poll by the senior polling
agency UVVM, which sampled 1000 voters, the only consensus
was that Smer would win the most votes in June 17, elections.
The difference between the second and fifth parties was a
mere four percent. The poll showed Free Forum just shy of
the five percent threshold to enter Parliament, and the
Communists just above it. Meciar,s HZDS and Dzurinda,s
SDKU were neck-to-neck with 12.9 and 12.7 percent,
respectively. Interestingly the poll showed a drop in
Smer,s popularity since January, from 37 to 28.5 percent,
and a four percent rise in SDKU,s popularity over the last
six months. KDH remained just under nine percent, preventing
an increase for a SDKU-KDH-SMK coalition. A poll conducted
by the junior polling agency Dicio showed similar results to
the UVVM poll.


3. (U) A third poll, released today by the Polis agency and
expected to be the last before elections, had Smer losing yet
more support, down to 26.6 percent, while SDKU scored second
with 13.7 percent. The joint popularity of SDKU, KDH, and
SMK thus reached 36.6 percent, which was the highest support
received in the agencies, polls since mid-2003. This poll
found insufficient support for either the Communists or Free
Forum to make it to Parliament.

Smer: The Polls Say 32 Percent, But We'll Do Even Better!
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4. (SBU) The final Smer campaign rally took place June 14 on
the banks of the Danube River across from Bratislava.
Turnout was huge -- Smer,s website reports that about 5,000
people attended -- and equally large were the quantities of
free food, beer, and visors. Performances by local bands
opened the festivities. Party Chairman Robert Fico spoke for
about ten minutes, painting a very negative picture of the
dire economic state of Slovakia and calling on Bratislava
residents to come to the polls. Czech Prime Minister
Paroubek gave a more positive speech about the success of
social democracy in the Czech Republic and the injustices of
the Slovak reform package. He emphasized the strong ties
between Slovakia and the Czech Republic. His declaration
that "Prime Minister Fico will be the best in the history of
Slovakia" won wild cheers from the crowd. All the Smer
"Who's Who" were present at the rally, but Vice-Chair Robert
Kalinak had the most superstar appeal. He entered the stage
to squealing women and lots of camera flashes. In contrast,
Vice-Chair Pavol Paska was greeted mostly by people who
seemed to know him.


5. (SBU) The crowd listening to the speeches was mostly older
people. (The young people were still gathered around the
beer stands at that point.) A concert by a 1980s rock group
followed; however, the majority of the crowd had already
moved away from the main stage towards the free sausages,
candy, beer, and soda.


6. (SBU) The political rally was attended not only by Smer
supporters and hungry Slovaks, but also by a group of mostly
young opponents of Fico from the organization ODM. (RefA) A
group of 20-something youth held up a large red banner
reading, "Forty years was enough; we don't want Klement,
Paroubek, Gustav, Fico," comparing former Czech Communist
president Klement Gottwald to Paroubek, and former Slovak
Communist president Gustav Husak to Fico. After leaving the
rally, we were approached by two young men who appeared to be
no older than 20 and were headed towards the rally; they were
handing out bumper stickers with a picture of Fico,s face
crossed out alongside the words, "Thank you for not believing
him," and flyers depicting the party leader as "the little
prince."

SDKU: Autographs From the Architect of the Flat Tax!
-------------- --------------

7. (SBU) SDKU held a well-organized rally on June 14 in a
residential area about one kilometer outside the tourist
center of Piestany. The rally was designed as a meet-and-
greet with approximately 15 well-known SDKU members including
Finance Minister Miklos, Foreign Affairs Minister Kukan, and
Justice Minister Zitnanska. PM Dzurinda has also been

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traveling the country, but did not attend the rally in
Piestany. Each candidate was briefly introduced on stage
in-between songs by the popular Slovak singer from the
1970,s and 80,s (Janko Lehoczky),but in general SDKU
focused on personal interaction with attendees over long
speeches. The candidates signed picture cards; Miklos even
had small posters (11 by 14 inches.) Party workers handed
out balloons, brochures and a coffee table picture book
entitled "Slovakia in Summer." SDKU decided to forego
offering free goulash and beer.


8. (SBU) All of the candidates we spoke with noted that the
atmosphere was substantially different from 2002, when people
openly showed their discontent and anger at Dzurinda and
other members of his government. There were about 300
attendees at the rally who based on appearance were a mix of
ages and income levels. SDKU holds its final rally at a main
square in Bratislava June 16. To counter Fico,s use of
Czech Prime Minister Paroubek and show his strong ties in the
region, Dzurinda is planning to have several former, current
and potentially future Prime Ministers from the region,
including Mirek Topolanek from the Czech Republic, Scheessel
from Austria and Sanoder from Croatia, participate in this
final rally.

KDH: Just Email Us
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9. (SBU) KDH Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky gave Bratislava one
last push on June 15 when he, KDH Vice Chairman Vladimir
Palko, and MP Frantisek Miklosko campaigned on a main square.
Surprisingly, the three remained in the sidelines, instead
leaving young campaign workers dressed in the party,s
signature yellow t-shirts and caps to hand out balloons and
campaign packets. Many passers-by did just that: passed by
without so much as a glance at the campaigners. However,
Emboff saw the always earnest Miklosko -- probably the
cleanest politician in Slovakia -- engaged in deep discussion
with some potential voters. The largest group of people
(about fifteen) was gathered around the free candies and
beer.


10. (U) KDH,s campaign packet featured the usual goods -- a
pre-election newsletter, a Bocian Kristian (Kristian the
Stork, the party,s mascot) card game, and hard candies.
However, this edition also featured a letter from Hrusovsky
to voters, imploring them to vote as this year,s elections
would, for the first time, take place over only one day and
estimates of the turnout were low.


11. (SBU) We found Hrusovsky apparently trying to disengage
himself from conversation with an older woman. He introduced
himself awkwardly, apologizing that they were getting ready
to leave for the day. When the woman tried to ask more
questions, Hrusovsky encouraged her to come to another event
or to email the party her questions -- a line which he had
also fed another voter in campaign coverage that had aired on
Slovak Television June 12.

THE LAST DEBATE
--------------

12. (U) The final televised pre-election debate took place
the night of June 15. SDKU leader Mikulas Dzurinda, Smer
Chairman Robert Fico and HZDS head Vladimir Meciar
participated. The personal animosity between Fico and
Dzurinda was clearly visible, while Meciar - who often seemed
to be left on the side of heated exchanges - struggled to
remain both neutral and relevant.


13. (U) The moderator opened by asking each candidate how
much their parties pre-election campaigns had cost and where
the money had come from. All three candidates appeared
uncomfortable with the question but none more so than Fico,
who sought to avoid naming the specific banks from which Smer
had taken loans. Dzurinda and Fico claimed to have spent in
the neighborhood of forty million Slovak crowns on their
campaigns but Fico challenged Dzurinda,s figures and said
that based on what he had seen the SDKU campaign must have
cost six or seven times more. Fico charged that the extra
money for the SDKU campaign came from funds stolen from
public funds allocated to various SDKU-controlled ministries.
Despite the fact that none of the candidates wanted to
discuss their financing, the discussion and ensuing
accusations lasted nearly 15 minutes.


14. (U) Fico accused Dzurinda of being dependent on advice
from the U.S. Embassy where he "runs to get instructions."
Fico also attacked Dzurinda for wanting to introduce
university fees. Dzurinda responded by asking Fico why he
takes his own son to a private school everyday and pays for
his tuition. "If you are so concerned about getting free
education to the poorest, why don't you focus on improving
the standard of education and send you sonr to a regular

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school. Instead you drive him in an expensive car to a
private school; this is not a very leftist approach."


15. (SBU) Fico seemed humorless but best prepared to attack
with a flurry of details. Dzurinda was the most composed.
Meciar was clearly the man in the middle with the debate
seemingly taking place around him. He turned red only once:
when the moderator quoted Dzurinda's statement to a Czech
newspaper that Fico is a Bolshevik and Meciar a murderer. At
the end of the debate Fico hinted that a Smer-KDH-SNS
coalition would please him.

FICKLE YOUTH
--------------

16. (U) Poloff watched the last debate of the election
campaign with five university-educated professionals between
25 and 30 years of age. Four of the five voted for left-wing
parties in 1998 and 2002 and, as of two weeks ago, were
inclined to support Smer in this election. As of last night,
however, all four had grudgingly decided to vote for SDKU as
the least-bad option. (Comment. One SDKU contact had actually
admitted to us recently that he was trying to sway some young
undecided voters to choose SDKU "as the least of evils". End
comment.) All five indicated that they absolutely do not like
or trust PM Dzurinda, but that of the three men on stage he
was the least bad. The principle factor that influenced the
left-oriented voters to abandon Smer were recent press
reports that Fico is considering a coalition with SNS and
HZDS. (RefB)


17. Another young (28) friend of Poloff, an ethnic Slovak
from the predominantly Hungarian city of Nove Zamky, has
indicated she will vote for SMK in this election after
supporting SNS in the past two elections. After seeing SMK in
government for the past eight years, she no longer fears they
will try to separate her district from Slovakia and she sees
the practical advantages that having SMK in government brings
to her region. Her parents and her brother still plan to vote
for SNS.

VALLEE