Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BRATISLAVA455
2006-06-09 12:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR'S BREAKFAST WITH KDH CHAIRMAN PAVOL

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3608
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSL #0455/01 1601250
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091250Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9919
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000455 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S BREAKFAST WITH KDH CHAIRMAN PAVOL
HRUSOVSKY

REF: BRATISLAVA 434

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000455

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S BREAKFAST WITH KDH CHAIRMAN PAVOL
HRUSOVSKY

REF: BRATISLAVA 434

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador hosted a one-on-one breakfast
with Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) party Chairman and
former Chairman of parliament Pavol Hrusovsky on June 8 to
discuss the upcoming elections. Hrusovsky said Prime
Minister Dzurinda's SDKU would be the most popular
center-right party, receiving a mid-teen percentage of the
vote; he predicted Smer would be the largest vote-getter
overall, taking between 20-25 percent of the vote. Hungarian
coalition party SMK, KDH, Movement for a Democratic Slovakia
(HZDS, the party of former PM Vladimir Meciar),and
nationalist party SNS will all receive around 10 percent.
Hrusovsky thinks the missteps of Free Forum (SF) chairwoman
Zuzana Martinakova will probably doom SF, and said the
communists have an outside chance of winning seats in
parliament. According to Hrusovsky, the big "unknown" was
the relative distance between Smer and likely second place
finisher SDKU. Hrusovsky said that KDH wants a
"center-right" coalition, would like to hold the Justice and
Interior Ministries, and hinted that cooperation with SNS was
not entirely off the table. END SUMMARY.

KDH WOULD PRESENT ALTERNATIVE TO "CATASTROPHIC" COALITION
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Ambassador asked Hrusovsky about the oft-rumored
combination of KDH, Smer and SMK -- noting that Smer's recent
vitriolic attack on President Bush over Iraq had colored our
view of the party. Fico had previously told us that Iraq
would not be a Smer campaign issue, and his recent change of
tactic (reftel) made us skeptical of his trustworthiness.
Hrusovsky responded that he has worked in Parliament with
Fico for many years and that Fico was "not to be trusted."


3. (C) Despite his lack of trust in Fico, Hrusovsky noted
that a SMK-KDH-Smer combination was not his first choice, but
could be presented to Fico as an alternative to a

"catastrophic" Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition that public commentary
and polling suggests is a distinct mathematical possibility.
While noting that the SMK was best suited to be a Smer
partner (NOTE: As an ethnic party, they have many members
with views that were not necessarily center right. END
NOTE),such a coalition would mean bridging the huge policy
differences between KDH and Smer on a range of issues. Since
Fico could not partner with SNS if he was working already
with SMK, KDH was a logical third alternative, since Fico
would not have to deal with the "crazy" and "bipolar" Meciar,
who would "be nothing but headaches." (NOTE: Smer Vice
Chairman Pavol Paska told DCM June 5 that his party would not
be willing to accommodate and KDH demands to further codify
the Vatican Treaty in Slovak law or to limit access to
abortion -- two key elements of KDH's platform. MP Frantisek
Miklosko has told us a future coalition between Smer and KDH
would have to contain a written agreement not to touch these
issues for four years. END NOTE.)


4. (C) Asked what Ministries he would want in such a
coalition, Hrusovsky noted that both former Interior Minister
Vladimir Palko and former Justice Minister Daniel Lipsic had
done extremely well, and KDH and would want those ministries
again; but with Smer the dominant partner, these ministries
would not be available. (Comment: Lipsic thinks any
cooperation would be a sell-out of the party's principles,
but does not rule out the possibility.)

WHO WANTS THE FOREIGN MINISTRY?
--------------


5. (C) Hrusovsky said KDH would be interested in the
Foreign Ministry, but would never be accepted because their
program -- including the implementation of four corollaries
signed with the Vatican -- was often at odds with EU
secularism. Hrusovsky also doubted that SMK could hold the
post, as nationalists in all parties would be infuriated by
the thought of having an ethnic Hungarian as the Foreign
Minister of Slovakia. (Comment: An MFA contact and former
KDH member said Slovakia simply was not yet ready for an
ethnic Hungarian Foreign Minister.) KDH would likely be left
with "social policy" ministries like Education, Culture,
Health, or even Regional Development. Of course, Hrusovsky
said, everybody who comes to the table for coalition
negotiations would have a person ready to be nominated for
every ministry.

KDH GOAL: CENTER-RIGHT COALITION, REDUX
--------------


BRATISLAVA 00000455 002 OF 002



6. (C) Hrusovsky took pains to convey that a center-right
coalition like the one that existed for the majority of the
past four years (prior to KDH's withdrawal) was KDH's goal.
When asked if KDH could "kiss and make up" with Dzurinda,
Hrusovsky said this "is not a problem, everything will be
worked out." He explained that KDH's biggest challenge is
not personality conflict with SMK chairman Bela Bugar or PM
Dzurinda, but with the mathematical necessity of finding a
fourth coalition partner (as the latest polling gives the
three center-right parties only 42 percent of parliamentary
seats). The addition of HZDS would give them the numbers,
but KDH members react viscerally to all the history that
Meciar brings, and would have to find a way ("a well-thought
out, written, and tamper-proof document") to limit the
influence of Meciar, whom Hrusovsky called "a crook, and
crazy."

POST-ELECTION STRATEGY
--------------


7. (C) One alternative KDH is considering is to court
disaffected HZDS MPs after the election. Meciar, according
to Hrusovsky, is particularly disillusioned with MP Viliam
Veteska, who Meciar believes is freelancing too much for his
own -- and not the party's -- well-being. Meciar believes
Veteska is the only one smart enough to be a challenge to him
in the party. However, Hrusovsky admits that Veteska -- who
has old Russian connections and was one of Meciar's worst
privatization beneficiaries -- might be more likely to
cooperate with leftist parties. In addition, Meciar has
"stacked" the party list with loyalists to prevent mutiny.
If the worst aspects of Meciar's behavior could not be
contained, KDH would need to take a long term view and not
compromise their principles. "We would have more to gain by
being in opposition to such reminders of the past" Hrusovsky
told the Ambassador.

NO PARTY DIVISION AT KDH
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador asked about the apparent public schism in
KDH between those who might prefer cooperation with Smer, and
those that would like to coalesce with SMK and SDKU. This is
all a game, Hrusovsky noted, meant to counter the impression
that KDH is, by default, "for" Smer since they are quite
publicly "against" HZDS. There is no party division,
Hrusovsky assured the Ambassador, and KDH wants a
center-right agenda.

WOULD HRUSOVSKY WORK WITH SNS?
--------------


8. (C) Hrusovsky's opinion of SNS chair Jan Slota rather
alarmingly left open the possibility of SNS as a partner.
While Hrusovsky dreaded attending the SNS-KDH-SMK debate
later in the day, and condemned Slota for his rhetoric, he
noted that all Slota needed to say is "I'm for Slovakia," and
he would get 10 of the vote. Furthermore, if not drunk,
Slota could be reasoned with. In addition, Hrusovsky
downplayed the role of Gasparovic in shepherding potential
coalition partners. Hrusovsky said Gasparovic is clearly in
favor of Smer, but if he is presented with coalition partners
who have the votes, "he can do nothing." As Hrusovsky noted,
this has happened twice before.
VALLEE