Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BRATISLAVA450
2006-06-08 15:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

MODERATE MECIAR ATTEMPTING TO WIN SUPPORT IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI PINR LO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2371
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSL #0450/01 1591507
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081507Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9909
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000450 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI PINR LO
SUBJECT: MODERATE MECIAR ATTEMPTING TO WIN SUPPORT IN
SLOVAKIA AND ABROAD

REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 854

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000450

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI PINR LO
SUBJECT: MODERATE MECIAR ATTEMPTING TO WIN SUPPORT IN
SLOVAKIA AND ABROAD

REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 854

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a recent meeting with poloffs, HZDS
(Movement for a Democratic Slovakia) MP and Foreign Relations
Committee member Diana Strofova discussed the party's
post-election prospects. HZDS is currently polling at around
11 percent and will certainly win seats in the June 17
parliamentary elections. The party is walking the fine line
between keeping leader Vladimir Meciar's image vibrant for
his hard-core supporters while trying to erase bad memories
(both at home and abroad) of Slovakia as the "black hole of
Europe" under his authoritarian, corrupt prime ministership
from 1993 to 1998. Like other HZDS leaders, Strofova readily
admitted that mistakes had been made in the past, but vowed
that HZDS was a reformed party. In this year's elections,
the party's top three priorities are investment, savings, and
regional development, and no door has been closed regarding
inclusion in a future coalition. Neither PM Dzurinda's SDKU
nor Robert Fico's Smer have ruled out cooperation with HZDS.
END SUMMARY.

CAN HZDS SHED ITS PAST?
--------------


2. (C) Strofova reflected on the history of HZDS as the
governing party for most of the post-communist 1990s, saying
it was natural that mistakes would have been made during the
difficult feat of creating new institutions after the 1993
split of Czechoslovakia. Strofova stressed that this
election was very different from those of years past. In the
1990s, the transition from communism to democracy and the
free market were the main issues, and in 1998 the focus was
keeping Meciar out of the government. In 2006, however,
voters are disinterested. Furthermore, post-election
coalitions are particularly difficult to predict this year.

COALITION PARTNERS--WITH WHOMEVER WILL HAVE US!
-------------- --


3. (C) Like most parties, HZDS would prefer to be a member
of a smaller coalition (2 or 3 parties),but Strofova

recognized that this probably would not happen. She said it
is highly unlikely that HZDS will work with KDH (Christian
Democratic Party),due to historical differences and KDH's
continued attacks against HZDS. (Comment: We were amused by
this phrasing; KDH has stated very clearly that it will never
work with Meciar due to his past behavior and acts. End
comment.) SDKU (Slovak Democratic and Christian Union) is a
more favorable partner, as it has recently tempered its
rhetoric against HZDS. Strofova boasted that HZDS has become
"more moderate" and now supports "most of" the economic
reform of Dzurinda's government. Strofova believes that the
EU does not favor the religiously-oriented KDH, and after
their falling out early this year, SDKU might be tempted to
replace KDH with HZDS in forming a future coalition. She
acknowledged that HZDS voters are most sympathetic to the
center-left Smer, but the strong personalities of Vladimir
Meciar and Robert Fico would make it difficult to reach an
agreement. On the other hand, Strofova noted that Fico had
stayed away from TV duels with Meciar to avoid potential
conflicts between the two leaders. (Comment: Interestingly,
Smer has told us that they have placed greater emphasis this
time on attracting older voters outside the main
cities--HZDS's traditional base--than on the younger voters
they (unsuccessfully) courted in 2002. End comment.)
However, Meciar himself seems among the largest obstacles to
HZDS's inclusion in the ruling coalition. Meciar as chairman
of HZDS, or even as chairman of Parliament, is one thing, but
Meciar as a minister is entirely another; the other parties
do not want the former PM in any government position.


4. (SBU) Strofova acknowledged that Dzurinda's reforms had
been necessary, but that too many had been introduced at the
same time, deepening the gap between rich and poor and
affecting HZDS core voters. Special HZDS working groups have
suggested changes to the reforms, and continue to work on
proposals. Still, HZDS would prefer to just "fix the
negative aspects" of past reforms rather than "change
everything."

HZDS REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTION RESULTS
-------------- -


5. (SBU) Strofova was confident in HZDS gaining a strong
percentage of the vote in the June 17 elections, estimating
as much as 15 to 20 percent. (Comment: Polls are currently
showing HZDS at about 11 percent, but low voter turnout and
aggressive action to get core voters to the polls on election
day could bump the number higher. End comment.) The party

BRATISLAVA 00000450 002 OF 003


is historically underestimated in the polls, and Strofova
believes that voters often do not admit their HZDS preference
because of societal prejudice against followers of Meciar.
The party's strongest support can be found in the cities of
Trencin and Nitra, while the larger cities of Bratislava and
Kosice tend to vote for other parties; Strofova attributed
this to the party's unfavorable history and failure to "sell
reform" to the great city centers. HZDS has also lost some
of its support in Zilina to the Slovak National Party (SNS).


6. (U) Strofova described HZDS's campaign approach as an
effort to remain as apolitical as possible in order to
prevent the estrangement of voters who are fed up with
politics and rhetoric. As a party with a historically older
following, HZDS has made efforts to attract young voters.
These include visiting schools throughout Slovakia, using the
Internet to propel its message, and forming an organization
of HZDS youth.

HZDS DETERMINED TO PLAY A ROLE IN NEXT GOVERNMENT
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Strofova said that any future government would have
to "lean" on HZDS, whether it was included in the government
or not. If included in the new government, HZDS would prefer
the ministries of Defense, Social Affairs, and Interior in
the cabinet. The party's main priorities following the
elections would be investment, education, and regional
development. Strofova was certain that Slovakia had a
positive image abroad, but that the country needed to find a
balance between what it offered its foreign partners and what
it received in return.

BUT CAN HZDS HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER?
--------------


8. (C) HZDS has already suffered from divisions and
defections from the party. During breakfast at the CMR, KDH
chairman Pavol Hrusovsky told Ambassador that Meciar is angry
at Vice Chairman of Parliament and of HZDS Viliam Veteska for
funding his own billboards and demonstrating too much
independence from Meciar. Hrusovsky told the Ambassador he
thinks this could lead some HZDS members to split from the
party after the elections and join a parliamentary coalition
as independents.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Strofova took a break from her busy campaign schedule
because "international acceptance," particularly by the USG,
is as high a priority for HZDS as election results. Only a
positive showing on both fronts will make HZDS a legitimate
partner for the next governing coalition, and the party is
desperate to be back in government after eight years on the
sidelines. Another HZDS MP, Milan Urbani, is a regular
caller at the embassy in a constant but unsuccessful lobbying
attempt to win the U.S. "blessing" for Meciar in a future
coalition. After the Ambassador attended a recent conference
on regional development hosted by a HZDS governor, at which
Meciar briefly spoke, HZDS issued a statement declaring this
proof of international legitimacy, although the Ambassador
did not arrive at the conference until Meciar had left.
Tellingly, the sponsors had placed Meciar's conference table
nametag next to the Ambassador's.


10. (C) Besides Meciar's continuing erratic behavior as party
leader, which has resulted in a mass exodus of members over
the years, HZDS has a real policy problem as it seeks greater
support; the more HZDS backs the reform agenda of the
Dzurinda government to gain international acceptance and
coalition potential, the more voters it loses to parties such
as Smer and the Slovak National Party (SNS). Even Meciar's
public "good behavior" during this campaign seems
disingenuous to many observers, who say he
seems--intentionally--like "a shadow of his former self."
Recent public expressions by Meciar that a Smer-HZDS-SNS
coalition would be a good option for Slovakia contradict
Urbani's private message that HZDS really wants to work with
a SDKU-KDH-SMK coalition in the future. Meciar may be
thinking more practically. A strong Smer and HZDS showing
theoretically could lead to a smaller coalition than one with
right-of-center parties, giving him more leverage. Only the
final election results June 18 will clarify HZDS's options
and intentions.


11. (C) Bio Note: The 33-year old Strofova appears engaging,
pragmatic, and reasonable. She is the sole face in the HZDS
line-up that defies its the "Old Boys" image. She obtained
her prominence in the party thanks to the influence of her
ex-husband, Jozef Majsky, who is currently serving a prison
sentence for defrauding thousands of people in various

BRATISLAVA 00000450 003 OF 003


business enterprises and pyramid schemes. Strofova aspires
to be a foreign policy expert within HZDS. She is a member
of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and participates actively
at embassy foreign policy speaker events. Strofova's
willingness to admit to past mistakes of HZDS and her skill
at speaking diplomatically on behalf of the infamous party
were surprising. Our overall impression is that she indeed
wants to represent the "new face" of HZDS, but is
opportunistic rather than principled and is well-practiced at
predicting and projecting the message people want to hear.
She is married to a Czech businessman with whom she has a
baby daughter. End note.

VALLEE