SLOVAKIA ORGANIZING V-4 ELECTION MONITORING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000042

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM, AND EUR/UMB
NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2021
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SOCI BO UP LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA ORGANIZING V-4 ELECTION MONITORING TO
BELARUS, BUT NEEDS FINANCIAL SUPPORT

REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 924

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Director of the MFA's Third Territorial Division
(including Eastern Europe and Russia) Stefan Rozkopal
presented us January 18 additional information about V-4
involvement in OSCE election monitoring missions for Belarus'
March 19 Presidential vote and requested U.S. financial
assistance. Rozkopal also noted that there had been little
progress on the OSCE's Needs Assessment Mission (NAM),which
-- although by practice conducted three months before
elections -- has still not received Lukashenko's permission
to enter Belarus. While Slovakia is limited to 10 percent of
the OSCE mission and would like to send observers, Rozkopal
is unsure whether Slovakia has the money or the staff to
establish a presence. He requested that the U.S. help
finance a small but meaningful V-4 delegation, albeit
directly and discreetly.

WATCH BIASED ELECTIONS FOR DOLLARS A DAY
--------------


2. (C) The MFA, like Slovak NGOs and many others in the
international community, will be focusing most of its
resources on the virtually concurrent Ukrainian elections.
Rozkopal said that Slovakia, as the designated V-4 lead on
Belarus, has been in contact with its partners and has
determined that there is interest in making a meaningful V-4
contribution to the OSCE/ODIHR election monitoring mission,
but that the V-4 lacks the money to make this happen. The
V-4 observers -- who would likely wear a pin or patch with an
additional V-4 emblem -- would cost approximately USD 2500
per short term observer (STO). As such, the V-4 could stand
up a relatively respectable presence of 16 observers (four
from each V-4 country) for a total of USD 40,000. As of now,
the GOS had funding only for two MFA observers. A smaller
donation of USD 20,000 would provide for a mission of 8
observers (two from each V-4 country). If the U.S. can
contribute this funding, Slovakia would then approach a
Slovak NGO to coordinate the V-4 observers as part of the
OSCE contingent.

U.S. ASSISTANCE WOULD HAVE TO BE DISCREET
--------------


3. (C) Speaking of the difficulties already inherent in
staffing such a mission, Rozkopal noted that no Slovak NGO
has yet been identified as a suitable partner for this
mission. Former Ambassador to the U.S. Martin Butora's NGO
Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) can no longer receive
visas, Pontis Foundation has been "black listed," and
Obcianske Oko ("Civic Eye") is tied down by its role in the
Ukrainian elections as part of the European Network of
Election Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO). Given the
sensitivities that Belarus has already voiced about U.S. and
EU criticism in the lead-up to a possible joint demarche (see
para 5),Rozkopal said that any funding would have to be done
quietly, and either government-to-government or
government-to-NGO. Rozkopal, who believed that
redistributing any donation via the MFA to the NGOs staffing
the STO mission might be problematic for adinistrative
reasons, said he would prefer if the USG or private U.S.
funds could direct any assistance directly to the (as yet
unnamed) NGO coordinator. Once any contribution was
codified, Rozkopal said he and the NGO community would
contact V-4 capitals to staff the contingent, which he said
could be done relatively quickly and effectively.


4. (C) Rozkopal noted that "time is running out fast" and
that, as the NAM still has not received permission to enter
Belarus. Hypothetically, he wondered whether the OSCE might
need to consider "what the point of no return is," i.e.,
should the OSCE take a stand and publicly announce that it is
"too late" for their mission to work due to lack of
cooperation from Belarus.

ROZKOPAL ON EU APPROACH TO BELARUS
--------------


5. (C) Rozkopal also passed to us a draft EU statement on
Belarus distributed by the Austrian Presidency for the
January 19 OSCE Permanent Council meeting, as well as a
report on a January 18 meeting between the Austrians and
Belarusian Foreign Minister Matynov. The latter document
contained a telling phrase: "...(Belarus) was ready to
improve relations with the West and the EU in particular and
was ready to take any steps. They were ready to discuss
everything, except one issue -- Lukashenko remaining as


President." Rozkopal told us that as far as the joint U.S. -
EU demarche on Belarus was concerned, his opinion was that
the joint demarche would "not make sense" if it were
delivered to anyone other than Lukashenko. We countered that
the approach needed to be made regardless of recipient;
Rozkopal accepted the point.
VALLEE


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