POLITICAL ROUND-UP: ELECTION EDITION II

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000404

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2013
TAGS: INRA PGOV LO
SUBJECT: POLITICAL ROUND-UP: ELECTION EDITION II

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe Vallee as per E.O. 12958 1.4(b) and
1.4(d)

SDKU INSIDERS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMER-SDKU COALITION
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1. (C) The Foreign Minister's Chief of Staff, Peter Kmec
(strictly protect),told DCM that FM Eduard Kukan has already
been approached by Smer Chairman Robert Fico about serving as
FM in a Smer-led government that includes the SDKU. Under
this scenario, current PM Dzurinda might serve as Speaker of
Parliament. In the event Fico forms a government without
Dzurinda's SDKU, Kmec says that Fico has essentially offered
the job of FM to Jan Kubis, a long time MFA employee who has
previously served as Slovakia's Ambassador to the UN in
Geneva, lead negotiator on the Stability Pact, OSCE Secretary
General, and the UNSYG's Special Representative for
Tajikistan.


2. (C) Kmec says the toughest scenario for Fico will be if
Smer gets less than 25% of valid votes and SDKU does
relatively well. The key then would be Free Forum (SF). If
SF can get over the 5% threshold, Dzurinda will be emboldened
to try to form a coalition with SF, the Christian Democratic
Movement (KDH) and the Party of the Hungarian Coalition
(SMK). Only if absolutely necessary would Dzurinda add the
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) as a fifth
coalition partner. Kmec described Dzurinda as stubborn, and
said he will try to make a deal without Smer. (Comment. From
this discussion DCM was left with the impression SDKU is
resigned to working with Smer in the next government. End
comment.) The worst election outcome, according to Kmec,
would be a two-party Smer-HZDS coalition. Kmec thinks Fico
is wary of this option as his top priority is to build up his
own image as a statesman and leader.


3. (C) Kmec said the private equity group Penta is hedging
its bets by making donations to multiple parties. Penta is
most interested in having influence over a new health
minister and finance minister. (Comment. Penta has been in
the news for several months in relation to their investments
in health insurers and as providers of emergency medical
services. The media frequently speculates that the
government's health care reforms were tailored to benefit
Penta, In January one opposition leader said Penta had
de-facto become the fourth party in the governing coalition.
End comment.) Kmec said Penta is sending signals to the
parties that, even though Penta itself is not interested in
getting access to EU funds, they have the clout to help a new
government get more money from the EU.

FURTHER EVIDENCE?
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4. (C) SDKU DefMin Martin Fedor and Smer MP Robert Kalinak
both attended a showing of a Lockheed-Martin C-130J aircraft
on May 23. Kalinak, who currently chairs the Parliamentary
Defense Committee and is widely expected to be Smer's choice
for DefMin in the next government, was beside Fedor almost
throughout the presentation. The two shared private
conversations and laughs. When Poloff commented to Fedor's
Chief of Cabinet, Rudolf Michalka, that it was good to see
the two men getting on, Michalka replied that all three of
them had spent some time together on a trip to Norway, and
that Fedor and Kalinak had become quite close. Michalka said
the friendship would be useful for avoiding turmoil at MoD
after elections. (Comment. Michalka is known to support SDKU
in the elections, although he does not belong to the party
and does not comment publicly. Almost before he finished
stating that Fedor and Kalinak's friendship could be good for
the MoD, he seemed to realize he had said something he should
not and quickly changed the subject. End comment.) Fedor,
Kalinak and Michalka all use the familiar "ty" form when
addressing one another.

SDKU: KEEPING ON TRACK TO THE EURO
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5. (U) Ivan Stefanec, Plenipotentiary for Euro Adoption and
economic specialist spoke about SDKU,s main economic
objectives at an AmCham breakfast held part of its Election
Speaker Series 2006. Stefanec said the party plans to stay
on course with its current policies, and to further its
reforms. In particular, Stefanec discussed Slovakia,s
intended entry into the European Monetary Union by January of

2009. He emphasized the importance of following through with
the set date, and mentioned some of the steps that have been
taken to prepare Slovak citizens for the new currency. These
include dual listing of prices in Slovak Crowns and Euro six
months before and six months after the adoption, as well as
teaching Euro values in schools starting in the coming
academic year. In regard to political questions about
possible coalitions, Stefanec said that SDKU was prepared to
negotiate with any other party, with the exception of the
Communist Party of Slovakia (KSS). Minister of Justice Lucia
Zitnanska spoke at the same breakfast about the party's plans

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for the justice system, which includes greater investment
into the system and possible structural changes to improve
management and efficiency.

TELLING THEM HOW TO VOTE
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6. (U) Slovakia,s Roman Catholic Bishops have written a
letter to be read during Holy Mass at churches across the
country on May 28. The letter reminds parishioners of their
"Christian duty" to go to the polls and support movements and
parties that support "Christian values." According to the
letter such a party would: support healthy marriages and
families; protect life from conception to death; be
socially-conscious; not indifferent to unemployment and
poverty; fight for justice and the security of citizens; and
respect religious freedom. Even before the letter has been
made public, two opposition parties, HZDS and SNS, have
claimed they meet the Bishop's criteria for support. The
self-described liberal and secular Alliance of New Citizens
(ANO) has protested that the letter is an inappropriate
interference of the Church in public life. Most political
scientists believe the letter best describes the right-wing
KDH, which has refused to comment on the letter before it is
read from the pulpit.

MEDIA NOTES
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7. (SBU) -- Peter Stano of Slovak Radio told PAO he saw a big
difference between a recent MFA press conferences and those
of the past. Before MFA was somewhat modest about its
accomplishments, and willing to share credit with political
allies. Today, they refer frequently to the achievements of
"the second Dzurinda government," using that phrase over and
over as they list major accomplishments, including NATO and
EU entry, various conferences and the Pope's visit.


8. (SBU) The deputy editor of the daily Pravda, Jozef Svolik,
told PAO his newspaper would not endorse any parties or
candidates the way American papers do. Svolik said it is
crucial for the paper to maintain its objectivity, and it
couldn't do that if it was seen as supporting a particular
party or candidate. Svolik feared that if Pravda supported
one party, the paper might lose readers who favored another
party.


9. (SBU) Vladimir Muzik, editor of the popular tabloid daily
Novy Cas told PAO that his paper would not cover elections at
all; "Nobody is interested in politics. Let the other
papers cover it. Maybe if there is a scandal we'll write
something."

SHOPPING FOR VOTES
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10. (SBU) Kalinak, who was once voted the sexiest Slovak MP
by readers of Novy Cas and is considered to be one of
Slovakia's most eligible bachelors, has found a uniquely
successful manner of campaigning. According to Katarina
Nevedelava, Smer's Assistant International Secretary, Kalinak
simply goes shopping for basic groceries. As women invariably
recognize "the poor single man" shopping for himself, he is
able to show himself to be an everyman and create good
word-of-mouth among voters.
VALLEE