SLOVAKIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP: ELECTION EDITION, MAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000382

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM SOCI PINR LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP: ELECTION EDITION, MAY
12, 2006

REF: BRATISLAVA 343

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).

SPRING - AND CAMPAIGN SEASON - IS HERE
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1. (SBU) Campaign season for the June 17 elections is in
full swing in Slovakia, as the political parties attempt to
mobilize voters in spite of a trend in regional elections of
decreasing voter turnout. Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda's
Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) and the socially
conservative Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) have been
actively pounding the pavement in Bratislava, passing out
materials. Former PM Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a
Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) and Robert Fico's Smer party rely
more upon public events with food and drink. The Slovak
Hungarian Coalition (SMK) -- confident in its "usual" 10-12
percent at the polls -- has purchased only a few billboards
in southern Slovakia, and is maintaining a generally low
profile. Politicians and government officials are
increasingly out on the campaign trail, with Minister of
Foreign Affairs Eduard Kukan and his Deputy Minister, Magda
Vasaryova (both SDKU) alternating their schedules so while
one is on the road chasing votes, the other remains in
Bratislava to manage the Ministry.

YOU MIGHT VOTE KDH IF...
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2. (U) A KDH campaign newsletter distributed on the streets
of Bratislava includes a five-question quiz citizens can take
to "find out" if they are likely KDH voters. Asking
questions about tax systems, government incentives for
investment, and even whether to give money to homeless people
on the streets, the quiz provides a "key" to the results.
According to the quiz:

- If you score 5-7 points, the year 1989 "came as an
unpleasant surprise" for you. You consider the state the
best solution for every problem, and socialism is fine with
you. You close both eyes to state debt and low productivity.
The EU raises some hope for you, in that you see many
similarly-thinking comrades. You're planning to vote for
Smer or (communist party) KSS, but a day spent in your garden
would probably be more pleasant.

- If you received 8-12 points, you don't have a clear
position. On one hand, you're eager for capitalism and a
market economy, but on the other hand you lack a sense of
freedom and the effort to understand other people. You will
hesitate until the last minute trying to decide whether to
vote at all. In the end, though, you will probably vote for
SDKU.

- If you received 12-15 points, you are a prospective KDH
voter. You don't rely upon the state, but you understand
that sometimes a person needs help from others. Freedom is
important to you in all aspects of life. You have a sense of
justice, but in addition to your reason, you have a heart.
"Thank you for your vote!"


3. (U) In general, KDH is hoping that the public will feel
that traditional values need to be better defended, hence
KDH's campaign slogan "a decent life."

HZDS "ENFORCERS" ENSURE THEIR VOTERS TURN UP
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4. (C) HZDS Vice Chairman Milan Urbani told us that HZDS
will not go door-to-door seeking votes, relying instead on
public events with food and drink to create a "festival
atmosphere" to attract voters. On campaign day, Urbani says
that party discipline is strictly enforced: a HZDS
"observer" at each voting station is provided with a list of
voters in that district who have expressed support for HZDS,
and takes "attendance" as they show up at the polls. In the
afternoon, the observer then calls the local party chief to
report the names of truant HZDS voters, so party activists
can go to their homes, round them up, and take them to
polling stations. Urbani predicted that HZDS could win up to
17-18 percent at the polls by enforcing this voter
discipline.


5. (U) HZDS has also publicly announced a SKK 100,000
(around USD 3400) reward to the local HZDS chief whose
electoral district in the Banska Bystrica region mobilizes
the highest number of votes to his party. Urbani told the
media that he will pay the reward out of his own pocket.

MECIAR KEEPS THE DOORS OPEN FOR COOPERATION

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6. (SBU) During a May 11 "candidate breakfast" hosted by
the American Chamber of Commerce, Meciar was conciliatory
towards the current government, praising most of their record
and offering no harsh criticism. When asked if, as a likely
third-place finisher, HZDS would consider forming a coalition
with Smer or SDKU, Meciar said that HZDS shares many of the
same criticisms of the government as Smer, but that Smer has
no program so he cannot say whether such cooperation could
exist. On SDKU, Meciar said that they are hard to negotiate
with because of "competing interests," but also kept the door
open.

SDKU: DOOR-TO-DOOR WINS SEATS ON THE FLOOR
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7. (C) In contrast to HZDS' public gatherings, SDKU
Secretary General Kamil Homola said door-to-door campaigning

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is the only way to go. He said it is possible to change the
minds of Slovak voters and convince them of the merits of
your arguments only if you talk to them in person. Homola
predicted that SDKU would get 17 percent of the total vote,
and said there were some "surprises" yet to come. (COMMENT:
Homola accurately predicted SDKU results in 2002 based on
mathematical formulas, so he feels very comfortable in his
prediction for this election cycle as well. END COMMENT.)


8. (C) Emboffs have received glossy SDKU campaign
propaganda in their mailboxes, featuring the accomplishments
of SDKU-run ministries during the past four years and titled
"We've Come Part of the Way." SDKU billboards feature long
messages such as "Slovakia needed reforms. We had the
courage to start them." Some members of the diplomatic corps
complained to Foreign Minister Kukan that the slogans on SDKU
billboards are "too complicated" to read at highway driving
speeds. Kukan admitted as much to the Ambassador, noting
that Fico's three-word banners ("Direction for People") was
very effective.

ANO'S NEW BRAND: NOW WITH LESS RUSKO
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9. (C) Alliance of New Citizens (ANO) is trying to shed its
Pavol Rusko-centric image. ANO's campaign theme is "more
women in politics." Though Rusko remains near the top of the
candidate list, ANO has purchased numerous billboards around
Slovakia featuring its top five female candidates and the
slogan "ONA? ANO!" ("Her? Yes!"). Graffiti artists have
taken delight in painting fanciful mustaches on the featured
candidates. COMMENT: During his recent upcountry travels,
the Ambassador reports that ANO billbords are the most
widespread, as Rusko is using a considerable amount of his
personal fortune to finance the high-visibility campaign.
END COMMENT.


10. (SBU) ANO is courting voters with calls for
legalization of domestic partnerships, mandatory English
language instruction in schools, and rejection of the
so-called "conscientious objector" treaty with the Vatican.

FIRST-TIME VOTERS MAY MAKE A DIFFERENCE
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11. (U) According to the Statistics Office, there are
434,000 eligible first-time voters in Slovakia between the
ages of 18-22. Politicians from every party have been
spotted speaking at secondary schools throughout the country.
Analysts cautioned, however, that this voting bloc is
"unstable" and includes many non-voters. Olga Gyarfasova
from the Institute for Public Affairs said that in 2002
first-time voters favored Smer and ANO candidates, but that
this cycle polling indicates their preference for Smer and
Free Forum (SF).


12. (U) The Dzurinda cabinet recently prepared an amendment
to the regulation on high school scholarships that grants
students from low income families a monthly stipend of
between SKK 600 and SKK 12,000 (around USD 20 to around USD
400),depending on family circumstances. The amendment is
seen by some pundits as an attempt to attract first-time
voters to vote for the current coalition parties.

FICO'S ROLE MODEL "UNCOMPROMISING AND GOAL ORIENTED"
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13. (C) In a May 6 ceremony to mark the anniversary of the
death of Slovak aviator and war hero M. R. Stefanik, Smer
chairman Robert Fico gave a speech full of praise for those
who do not rest until they get what they want. Fico hailed
Stefanik as goal-oriented and uncompromising, a leader who
never shrank back and never kowtowed to anyone. In this way,

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Fico said, Stefanik was a model for all members of parliament
to emulate. Fico's nationalistic tone may have pleased
elements from Slovakia's nationalist party SNS and
ultra-nationalist hate group Slovenska Pospolitost, who were
in the crowd, even if Fico did not intend to court them.

DIRTY TRICKS
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14. (U) Campaign season in Slovakia is not without its
dirty tricks. Several industrious mudslingers have come up
with ways to place graffiti on billboards and sidewalk
advertisements that looks convincingly like the fonts used in
the original design; by doing so, they have changed
billboards to read "Don't Vote for..." instead of "Vote
for..." and, in a particularly eye-catching adjustment,
changed a KDH billboard to read "A Decent Life... and Free
Sex!"

THINK FICO WILL WIN? PLACE YOUR BET!
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15. (U) Slovakia's betting parlors recently received the
government's blessing to take bets on the results of the June
17 election.
VALLEE