Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BRATISLAVA349
2006-04-28 14:03:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

CONFERENCE ON BELARUS: EU ON DEFENSIVE, RUSSIANS

Tags:  PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO 
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PP RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSL #0349/01 1181403
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281403Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9791
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000349 

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO
SUBJECT: CONFERENCE ON BELARUS: EU ON DEFENSIVE, RUSSIANS
STAY AWAY

REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 924

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000349

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO
SUBJECT: CONFERENCE ON BELARUS: EU ON DEFENSIVE, RUSSIANS
STAY AWAY

REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 924


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: An April 25-26 conference on Belarus
held at the Slovak Ministry on Foreign Affairs was an
intellectual lynch mob in two acts. The first day, academics
and activists painted a bleak picture of the Lukashenko
regime, criticized Russian "meddling," and presented
statistical data that showed Lukashenko won the election by a
much smaller margin than announced. Russian MFA
representative Alexej Andrejevic Sazonov, who had traveled to
Bratislava ostensibly for the Conference, failed to show up
for the panel on Belarus' relationship with its neighbors.
Despite an open invitation to any audience member who would
like to represent Russia's views, no one was forthcoming.
The second day focused on EU policy and instruments, with
calls for the creation of an EU Special Representative for
Belarus and a broader visa ban. Throughout the conference,
Belarusian activists repeated their message: the
international community must focus on "saving the lives" of
detained political prisoners, while keeping in mind that the
people of Belarus cannot wait five more years for change.
END SUMMARY.

MANAEV'S NUMBERS: LUKA WON, BUT NOT AS BIG
--------------


2. (SBU) A conference on "The European Union and Belarus
After the Presidential Elections: The Need For a New
Strategic Approach" was held April 25-26 at the Slovak MFA,
and co-sponsored by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the German
Marshall Fund, and the Slovak Foreign Policy Association.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Eduard Kukan called for a focus
on strengthening civil society in Belarus, while declaring
support for ODIHR's declaration that Belarus' March elections
were not free, fair, or transparent. Kukan said that
Slovakia welcomed the April 10 GAERC conclusions on Belarus
as the beginning of improved EU measures, and voiced his
support for the visa ban. However, Kukan said Slovakia
advocates a "bigger list" that is left open for new additions.


3. (SBU) Oleg Manaev, the Director for the Institute for
Independent Socio-Economic and Political Studies in Belarus,
presented what he claimed were more accurate election result
statistics developed from polling conducted in the days

following the election. According to Manaev, Lukashenko
received 63 percent of the vote (vice 83 percent),and
Milinkevich 21 percent (vice 6.1 percent). Kozulin received
4.9 percent (vice the 2.2 announced by the Central Election
Committee). Manaev said that while two thirds of Belarusians
said they watched the televised statements by the candidates,
only 10 percent said it affected the way they voted.

SANNIKOV: NEED TO FOCUS ON THE PRISONERS
--------------


4. (SBU) Charter 97 founder Andrei Sannikov's told the
audience that there was an "uprising, but not a revolution."
Sannikov suggested that the focus of the international
community should be directed at the near-term goal of "saving
the lives" of political prisoners held by the Lukashenko
regime after the protests on October square. According to
Sannikov, the activist community in Belarus is united in its
insistence that Belarus cannot wait another five years for
political change.


5. (SBU) Slovak MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak told
the Conference that Slovakia was proud of its role prompting
EU action, specifically the development of the visa ban list
and discussions of "smart sanctions." Lajcak also told the
panelists that Slovakia was against elevating Schengen visa
fees, as it was important that Europe be accessible to
Belarusian citizens. Lajcak -- who visited Minsk in advance
of the March elections -- also painted a picture of GOB
interlocutors as "apologetic and reserved." In his
interactions with the GOB in March, he said many bureaucrats
were ready to admit that Belarus had problems, but at the
same time seemed unwilling to change. As far as Slovak
foreign policy is concerned, Lajcak said Belarus is "at the
top of the list."

RUSSIA REMAINS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
--------------


6. (SBU) Neither the Belarusian nor Russian Ambassadors to
Slovakia attended the conference, and Russian MFA
representative Alexej Andrejevic Sazonov, who had traveled to
Bratislava ostensibly for the conference, failed to show up.
Highlighting the fact that the relationship between the two
countries is deeper than a simple geopolitical equation,
Manaev said that given the choice between being "European" or
"Russian," 32 percent of Belarusians choose "European" while

BRATISLAVA 00000349 002 OF 003


56 percent choose "Russian." Former Polish Ambassador to
Belarus Mariusz Maszkiewicz, who was detained after
participating in the October square demonstrations, said that
there were several Russians at the square alongside
Belarusian activists who considered it their "duty" to help
Belarus with democracy.

WHY NO RUSSIAN OR BELARUSIAN PARTICIPATION
--------------


7. (SBU) On April 27, MFA Director for CIS and Balkans
Stefan Rozkopal told EUR DAS Rosemary DiCarlo that MFA State
Secretary (Deputy Minister) Magda Vasaryova had sent a letter

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in advance of the conference to the Russian Ambassador
requesting a speaker from Russia as well as the Ambassador's
attendance at the conference. Meanwhile, all other Chiefs of
Mission -- including the U.S. and Belarusian Ambassadors --
were invited via e-mail. However, because of the close
relationship between the Belarusian and Russian Ambassadors
in Bratislava, the Belarusian Ambassador decided that, since
he did not receive a letter like his Russian colleague, he
had not been "officially" invited and was noticeably absent
from the forum. While the Russians later conveniently
double-booked the speaker they had brought in for the
conference (precluding his participation),the Belarusians
did not get off so lightly; the MFA is calling in the
Belarusian Ambassador on May 2 so Rozkopal can inform him
officially of the conference and fill him in on what he
missed.

DAY 2: EU BASHING
--------------


8. (SBU) The second day of the conference was dedicated to
"Revising the EU's Instruments" and "Rethinking the EU's
Policy." German MP Markus Meckel was the first speaker to
call for the creation of an EU Special Representative for
Belarus, and he knocked the EU's funding mechanism for being
able to dole out "10 million dollars in 2 weeks, while
getting 10,000 dollars for a project is almost impossible."
Meckel proposed expanding the EU visa ban to every university
rector that expels a student at Lukashenko's orders, and
every judge who sentences someone to prison for participating
in peaceful protests; "people must realize that they have to
change their own behavior, or at least take responsibility
for their actions" he said.


9. (SBU) Slovak NGO activist Balazs Jarabik said that EU
reaction times are appalling, and that any revision of EU
instruments must address the problems synchronizing policy,
communications, and democratic assistance among the 25.
While the EU effectively uses its 11 Heads of Mission in
Minsk to challenge the status quo, Jarabik called for more
"high level" interactions by Solana and an EU Special
Representative for Belarus; other conference attendees
proposed asking EU aspirants such as Croatia and Turkey to
amplify the EU message by implementing the visa bans
themselves, since many Belarusians go to Croatia and Turkey
for holidays.

GERMAN POLICY PLANNER: EU NEEDS A NEW PHILOSOPHY
-------------- ---


10. (SBU) Martin Kremer, Counselor for EU-related Affairs
at the German Foreign Office's Policy Planning directorate,
told the conference that the EU needs a "new philosophy" that
encompasses Belarus and Russia. He called on the EU to
develop a more "proactive" policy rather than a reactive one,
and for an increase in person-to-person and student
exchanges. Kremer was also one of the strongest voices
calling for the creation of an EU "Action Plan" on Belarus,
which would communicate the benefits of cooperation with the
Union to the Belarusian people. He said that the German and
Finnish EU Presidencies will likely support such activities.

FERRERO-WALDNER REP DEFENDS EU AD NAUSEUM
--------------


11. (SBU) Judith Gebetsrothiner, a member of Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet, said that while there is "room for
improvement" the EU's actions -- including its funding for 30
minutes of broadcasting a week -- should not be overlooked.
Still, she admitted that the EU is a "compromise" institution
which does "what our flexibility allows." While she
delivered a labored defense of EU response times and
policies, several attendees left the room for cigarettes and
coffee, and one analyst pantomimed suicide by hanging himself
by his tie before she delivered her final thought: that the
EU "cannot substantially increase engagement or assistance to
Belarus, but will try to increase student and academic
exchanges."

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12. (SBU) Similarly, Pirkka Tapiola, adviser to the policy
unit of the EU High Representative for Common Foreign and
Security Policy, defended a small visa ban list by saying
that "in politics, you need responsibility" and that it was
better to hold those few people clearly responsible for
Belarus' political situation responsible while sparing the
rest. Tapiola also warned conference members not to expect
the EU to change its posture towards Belarus in the near
term, as the EU (by which he likely meant Javier Solana)
believes its "two track" approach is the right one.

MANAEV: EURONEWS AN UNTAPPED RESOURCE
--------------


13. (SBU) Pursuing media coverage on Euronews, a television
news program broadcast in several European languages
including Russian, was touted as a free alternative to the
EU's multi-million dollar broadcast schemes to date. Manaev
said that his polling data showed that 2.4 percent of
Belarusians listen to the EU-sponsored Deutschewelle
broadcast, 5.7 percent listen to EU-funded European radio,
and 3.7 percent watch the European news. On the other hand,
Manaev said, Euronews is watched by nearly one million
Belarusians, and when Euronews covered the visit of
Milinkevich to western Europe earlier this month, those
viewers were watching. Manaev said that using "free" media
already established in Belarus should be an EU priority.

REVOKING ILO PRIVILEGES: A "NON-SANCTION" OPTION?
-------------- --------------


14. (SBU) The panelists discussed the possibility of
getting the International Labor Organization (ILO) to cancel
Belarus' trade preferences and privileges, which they say
equal EUR 200 million a year. The cancellation of these
privileges are not "sanctions" per se, but could definitely
be used as a practical tool to punish the Lukashenko regime.
VALLEE