SLOVAKIA FRUSTRATED WITH EU RESPONSE TO BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000234

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA FRUSTRATED WITH EU RESPONSE TO BELARUS
ELECTION

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A March 24 event on "next steps in
Belarus" hosted by the British Ambassador to Slovakia and
featuring presentations by representatives from both the
Slovak MFA and NGO community, highlighted Slovakia's
disappointment in the lack of a clear, timely EU response to
Belarus' March 19 presidential election. The event -- which
included participation by former Foreign Minister Pavol
Demes, whose op-ed that day in daily Pravda was biting in its
criticism of EU after-action -- reflected frustration by all
parties that the EU was unable to issue a meaningful
statement despite the fact that the results of the election
were "well known" in advance. By the end of the event, the
room had been polarized. French and Austrian diplomats
squared off to defend their countries' actions in response to
the four panelists' chiding of the lack of "moral clarity" in
the EU response. The panelists begged that the body work
quickly to "catch up" with the United States to present a
strong, joint approach. Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the
overnight crackdown in Minsk, the PM's foreign policy advisor
tells us that Slovak leaders are "furious" with inaction on
the situation, and that while "taking hits" within the EU,
Slovakia continued to struggle in Brussels to make its own
points for strong, decisive language in the upcoming council
conclusions. END SUMMARY.

PONTIS FOUNDATION SEES CHANGES FROM 2002
--------------


2. (SBU) Balazs Jarabik from the Pontis Foundation gave the
assembled diplomats, government officials, and NGO
representatives an overview of the Belarusian opposition's
response and the space for dialogue that protests on October
Square seemed to have created. Noting many changes from the
2002 elections, Jarabik highlighted the first-time phenomenon
of mass protests, an increased number of signs, flags, and
banners, as well as a diminished "fear factor," particularly
evidenced by the March 18 freedom concert held in Minsk. The
Pontis Foundation circulated documents March 19 that claimed
Russian President Vladimir Putin had called Lukashenko to
urge the Belarusian President away from a violent response to
protests; Jarabik repeated his speculation that Russia is
still heavily involved in advising Lukashenko's response.
Jarabik recommended that the west change its economic
approach to Belarus, noting that the EU -- as Belarus'
largest trading partner -- needed to "tackle the status quo"
and deny Lukashenko "breathing room" through a coordinated
economic response.

PAVOL DEMES COMES DOWN HARD ON THE EU
--------------


3. (SBU) The German Marshall Fund's Pavol Demes highlighted
the importance of the opposition's "unity" during the
election cycle, both in the formation and support of a
10-plus candidate, and in the opposition's response to the
election results. Calling the opposition movement -- and
particularly Zubr (whose representative Vladimir Kobets was
present) and the "jeans solidarity movement" -- "unexpected"
and "brave," Demes carried forward with themes presented in
his op-ed. He came down hard on the EU, and particularly the
Austrian presidency, for failing to take a "clear position
followed up by practical steps" in response to Lukashenko's
victory. (COMMENT: An English translation of the article
has been forwarded to the desk. END COMMENT)


4. (SBU) Demes speculated that the EU response was so tepid
that Belarus would not even headline the March 23 EU Prime
Ministers or Foreign Ministers dinners in Brussels that
evening, but MFA Director for CIS and Balkans Stefan Rozkopal
said that Slovak FM Eduard Kukan -- as well as Prime Minister
Dzurinda -- were both planning on raising the issue before
their EU colleagues.

SLOVAK MFA DISAPPOINTED IN EU STATEMENT
--------------


5. (SBU) Rozkopal said that, as the results of the election
were "not surprising," Slovakia had hoped that the EU would
have been able to agree on a statement which could have been
made public Monday or Tuesday at the latest. He wondered
pointedly why the EU failed to get a statement out when it
knew in advance what the results would be. Saying that he
agreed fully with Demes' op-ed piece, Rozkopal noted that as
diplomats, "sadly the MFA cannot publish such things."


6. (SBU) Rozkopal presented "food for thought" on possible
reactions to the Belarusian elections, including targeted

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sanctions and the expansion of the visa black list, but also
challenged those assembled to begin thinking about ways to
motivate Belarus' citizens. He encouraged attempts to
influence Lukashenko through economic means, as he predicted
that such economic action could hasten the fall of the
regime. However, Rozkopal prescribed that any economic
response would only be successful if it included the EU,
rather than being unilaterally applied by the U.S. or Russia.

BRITISH JOURNALIST GOES TO BAT FOR UNCLE SAM
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7. (SBU) CSIS Fellow Robin Shepherd, a journalist based in
Bratislava who traveled to Minsk earlier this year,
emphasized the "disconnect" between how the U.S. and EU see
Belarus. Shepherd lauded the U.S. as "much clearer" about
its stance, noting with approval the Belarus Democracy Act
and the USG's release of strong statements before, during,
and after the March 19 election. In addition, he cited the
declassified report to Congress which provides evidence that
Lukashenko is "one of the world's most corrupt leaders" and
praised the timing of its release.


8. (SBU) Shepherd warned that opinion polls were "not only
inaccurate, but dangerous" as they give the EU cover for
non-action. By pointing to inaccurate polls showing over 55
percent of the people supporting Lukashenko, some EU states
can claim that action should be tempered as Lukashenko's
continued rule is "the will of the people." Shepherd argued
that any opinion poll in a state ruled by fear is rubbish.


9. (SBU) Shepherd was especially appreciative of A/S
Fried's recent speech (NFI) in which he said it is better to
deal with the problems that come from a policy of
democratization than the problems of ignoring a dictatorial
regime. Shepherd said that this sort of "moral clarity" is
decidedly lacking in EU communiques. Shepherd, as well,
proposed that targeted sanctions needed further study;
Jarabik and Rozkopal voiced their support for Shepherd's
comments.

DEMES: EU HAS TO DO SOMETHING FOR THOSE IN THE SQUARE
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Pavol Demes ended the evening's discussion by
pointing out that the weakness of the EU response was that,
even four days after the elections, no EU representative
could walk into October Square in Minsk and succinctly
explain to the people gathered there what the EU position and
response was. Demes, disappointed at the lack of a German
representative, said that Germany, as Belarus' second largest
trade partner, will be the voice at the dinner table in
Brussels saying "let's be careful," while Slovakia's
government and NGOs remain "in shock" about how this "most
powerful union" really works. "We need to put the facts, and
the anger, on paper" if the EU wants to "do something for the
people on the (October) square on Saturday" he said.

OPPOSITION PARTY THINKS DZURINDA HAS "POLITICIZED" BELARUS
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Immediately after the event, opposition party
Smer's vice chairman Pavol Paska phoned DCM to discuss the
upcoming travel of Smer leaders -- including Robert Fico --
to Washington. Paska said that the Slovak media had
incorrectly reported that of all the political parties the
media had approached for views on Belarus, only Smer did not
offer a stance. When the DCM told Paska it was still not too
late to get condemnation of Lukashenko's behavior on the
record, Paska disappointingly said it was difficult to
respond as PM Dzurinda had "politicized" the issue. The
March 24 daily Sme contained a cartoon showing Fico in the
classic "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" poses when
the topic of democratization in Belarus is brought up.

AFTER THE CRACK-DOWN: DZURINDA'S OFFICE LIVID
--------------


12. (C) Dzurinda Foreign Policy advisor Milan Jezovica
(please protect) told us March 24 that Slovakia was "taking a
few hits" on Belarus during the gathering of EU leaders in
Brussles and "fighting an uphill battle" within the EU.
Still, Slovakia was resolved to continue the struggle and
make its own points in the internal debate. Jezovica
resented that EU non-action the day after the elections gave
Lukashenko a green light "for what he did last night."
Jezovica said that Slovakia is strongly supporting language
in the council conclusions, including a reference to visa
restrictions for senior representatives including Lukashenko.

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Slovakia has had no luck getting the EU to not recognize the
elections.


13. (C) Jezovica said that there had been a proposal within
the EU to include language which would "urge Lukashenko to
allow people to exercise their rights." Jezovica was livid
at this flaccid language, as the Slovaks believe the
citizens' rights already exist and that Lukashenko's only job
is to respect that right. Jezovica said that the debate in
the EU today is better than last night, but he is still
furious. "We're supposed to be a community of values," he
lamented. He also noted that the next EU message is crucial
to those willing to brave regime action to attend the planned
rally in Minsk March 25.

COMMENT: HIT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MARK
--------------


14. (C) The March 23 discussion in Bratislava -- and Demes'
op-ed -- produced emotional and thorough defenses presented
by the Austrian and French representatives, in particular,
proving that the message of the event -- that the EU is
failing to present a strong, unified approach -- hit fairly
close to the mark. Slovakia's government and NGOs are
discouraged and disappointed by the lack of EU response to
the elections, and the late-night crackdown on the tent city
in Minsk following the event likely reinforced their disdain
and disappointment at the EU's "too little, too late"
response. Slovakia sees eye to eye with us on this issue,
and has signaled that it is ready and willing to carry water
within the EU.
VALLEE