SMER FINESSES ITS IMAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000233

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IZ LO
SUBJECT: SMER FINESSES ITS IMAGE

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 101

B. BRATISLAVA 131

C. FBIS EUP20060306059001

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Main opposition party Smer, in addition to
planning a campaign tailored to the truncated election cycle
culminating on June 17 (ref A),has also apparently
undertaken several changes in anticipation of success at the
polls. Chairman Robert Fico (ref B) and his party elite,
confident that they will emerge from the elections with the
lion's share of votes, have made subtle moves to shore up
both foreign and domestic support which they hope they can
leverage during post-election negotiations with possible
coalition partners. The fine tuning has included:

- Removing shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs Monika Benova
from her position both within the shadow cabinet and on the
party's candidate list;

- Creating a think tank to develop a working party economic
proposal for a "social state" (septel);

- Planning an ambitious foreign travel schedule for Fico and
Vice Chairmen Pavol Paska and Robert Kalinak to "demonstrate"
to capitals -- including Washington (April 19-20),London
(April 17-18),and Moscow (April 11-13) -- that Fico and Smer
are not "another Meciar." END SUMMARY.

BENOVA REMOVAL A HINT AT COOPERATION WITH SDKU?
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2. (C) Monika Benova -- member of European Parliament, Smer
Vice Chair, and until recently shadow Minister of Foreign
Affairs -- has gone, within weeks, from likely power player
in a Fico-led government to "non-factor." First she
voluntarily "gave up" her position as number two on Smer's
candidate list and then she announced March 16 that she was
no longer shadow Minister. This wasn't a complete surprise:
rumors at the time of European Parliament elections claimed
the Smer leadership was happy to get Benova out of
Bratislava. Benova recently gave an interview to weekly
Domino Forum (ref C) in which she said that, as Minister of
Foreign Affairs, she would "seek support for the withdrawal
of our (Slovak) troops" from Iraq. Both Fico and
parliamentary Defense and Security committee chairman Robert
Kalinak have made a great effort to convey to us their
position on Iraq: "Smer opposed the decision to go into
Iraq, but we always kept our promise not to vote for the
withdrawal of Slovak troops."


3. (C) Smer Deputy International Secretary Katarina
Nevedalova told us that many people have expressed their
"relief" at Benova's removal from the shadow cabinet
position, but to her surprise no one had voiced their
concerns about Benova before. Nevedalova claimed not to have
heard about Benova's Domino Forum interview and said that
Benova's decision not to run was made because Smer decided it
was "not a good idea" for Benova to quit her MEP mandate
halfway through. Nevedalova said that Smer had not yet
appointed a new shadow Minister, and that it might not do so
-- the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, she hinted, is a plum
position which could be used as a bargaining chip if and when
Smer attempts to form a coalition (and could, we note, help
attract PM Dzurinda's SDKU to the negotiation table).

FLASIK'S FRIENDS GET FLUSHED
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4. (SBU) There was media speculation that Benova's
departure was part of the "purge" of a group of business
leaders whose interests were at odds with Fico's ideas of
social state, in which Fico replaced as many as 14 Smer
candidates with trusted friends. Fico's relationship with
Fedor Flasik, the former chief of Smer's campaign, has been
strained for some time; Benova's engagement to Flasik likely
inhibited her upward mobility in the party.


5. (C) While the March 16 "purge" of the business wing and
Benova's departure from her seat in the shadow cabinet
generated much discussion in the media and among pundits,
Smer officials have downplayed any palace intrigue with a
convincing demur. Kalinak told us March 22 that the story
was distorted and that, while the relationship between Fico
and Flasik is strained, there was no real purge. If there
had been, Kalinak said, it would have been impossible for
Smer to keep Flasik-friendly businessmen Martin Glvac in the
8th position on the candidate list, and Peter Ziga in 13th.
(COMMENT: While in the past Fico made Smer candidates sign

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"loyalty agreements," we have not yet had reports publicly or
privately that similar statements have been required for this
election, though Fico has stated publicly that the most
important criterion for membership on the list is "loyalty."
END COMMENT)

SOCIALISM WITH FICO'S FACE: THE SMER ROAD SHOW
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6. (SBU) Fico's on-again, off-again travel to the United
States -- which was delayed after the successful visit of PM
Dzurinda to the White House earlier this month -- is on
again, with Fico pursuing high-level consultations in
Washington on April 19. Kalinak told us that he and
parliamentary Foreign Affairs committee chairman Pavol Paska
will accompany Fico to Washington; Nevedalova told us that
the purpose of their trip is to present Smer to the
Washington policy audience in an attempt to assure the USG
that Fico is "not another Meciar."


7. (C) Nevedalova showed us Fico's "secret campaign
schedule" which kicks off on April 1 in Malacky. In addition
to Fico's April travel to Washington, he is also planning
trips to Moscow (April 11 - 13, but which Kalinak says will
involve only one day of consultations within that window),
London (April 18, from where he departs to Washington),and
several trips to Prague. On one of the Prague visits (April
28),Fico plans to meet with former German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder. COMMENT: In addition to "explaining" Smer's
position and future initiatives to his foreign audiences,
Fico is likely also attempting to increase his foreign policy
credentials at home with some media-friendly photos of him
meeting with foreign leaders. We have advised the travelers
that Washington interlocutors will want to hear about their
foreign policy vision, particularly their planned role in
"transformational diplomacy" and not just that they will
"follow the EU." His party's non-response to media requests
to all parties for a comment on the recent "elections" in
Belarus indicates Fico has more homework to do before his
arrival in Washington. END COMMENT.

SMER HAS NO PROBLEMS WITH SLOVAKIA'S FOREIGN POLICY
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8. (C) Kalinak would likely be Defense Minister in a
Smer-led government (in the past he was rumored to want the
Interior Minister post, but he has apparently changed his
mind). He claimed that Smer has no problems with Slovakia's
current foreign policy orientation, and gave us a short tour
d'horizon of Smer's foreign policy outlook. On Iran, Smer
said that Slovakia considers the Iranian regime and its
nuclear weapons program a "really serious problem" that will
need to be dealt with in the near future. Regarding Cuba,
Kalinak said he disapproves of sanctions because they were
not effective against Castro, but only deteriorated the
social situation of the Cuban people. Kalinak said that
Belarus should not be treated like Cuba, but rather a
different format of assistance to the Belarusian people must
be introduced; in this respect, Kalinak praised the work of
Slovakia's Pontis Foundation. COMMENT: Kalinak's claim
contrasts markedly with both Fico's past public complaints
that Dzurinda has been a lap-dog of the U.S., as well as with
what Fico has told us privately: that a Smer government would
be more likely to "follow" the big EU countries. At our
December 15 lunch with Fico, Paska, and Kalinak, Kalinak was
notably subdued. END COMMENT.

COMMENT: CONFIDENT IN VOTES, SMER WOOING PARTNERS
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9. (C) Fico appears to be fine-tuning his party in an
attempt to avoid a repeat of the 2002 elections, in which
Smer -- despite winning the largest share of votes -- failed
to form a coalition government. Fico has likely taken the
advice of focus groups and image makers, who seem to have
zoned in on criticism that Smer is all complaint and no
solution. The establishment of an economic think tank (ASA,
to be reported septel),as well as the focus on developing a
party platform and candidate list that homes in on
pro-social-state issues will, he hopes, bolster his ability
to look authoritative and statesmanlike on the campaign
trail. Fico is still pursuing first-time votes, speaking to
graduating students at high schools. He was in Pezinok
speaking to the local gymnasium a week before Pol-Econ chief,
but we heard that the students were rather bored with his
poorly-chosen topic: pension reform.


10. (C) Comment, Cont'd: This pre-positioning -- lessening
Flasik's and Benova's influence and undertaking foreign
travel -- may be an attempt to make cooperation with Smer

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more attractive to parties elected to the next parliament and
woo possible coalition partners. Fico's travels to
Washington and Moscow may also be an attempt to "pay homage"
to both relationships, though we continue to broadcast -- and
increasingly receive -- the message that Slovakia's current
foreign policy posture is one of the country's largest and
most valuable assets.
VALLEE