CANDIDATE LISTS TAKE SHAPE: SAME GUYS, DIFFERENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2021
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI LO
SUBJECT: CANDIDATE LISTS TAKE SHAPE: SAME GUYS, DIFFERENT
DAY

REF: BRATISLAVA 0165

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).


1. (SBU) As Slovakia's political parties near the March 19
deadline for submitting candidate lists, most of the major
parties have announced their lineups. So far, there have
been few surprises. The conservative Christian Democratic
Party (KDH, which currently holds 18 seats in parliament)
submitted a list led by former Chairman of parliament Pavol
Hrusovsky, former Minister of Interior Vladimir Palko, and
former Minister of Justice Daniel Lipsic. Public commentary
focused on the disconnect between KDH's emphasis on "family,
which begins with a man and a woman" and the fact that there
were only four female candidates in the party's top 20 (at
positions 15, 16, 17, and 19).


2. (C) The Slovak Hungarian Coalition (SMK) made the fewest
changes to its list, mostly re-ordering candidates to
increase the influence of the nationalist side of the party.
Several SMK members, including NGO activists and MP Pal
Farkas, expressed concern about the increasingly
nationalistic tendency. Hungarian nationalist Miklos Duray,
who is supported morally and financially by Victor Orban, is
increasing his rhetoric in favor of autonomy. The party
isn't offering solutions to its voters real problems, claimed
Farkas; it is mostly a platform for leaders to advance their
own economic interests. Farkas predicted that nothing will
change if the SMK stays in government.


3. (C) Prime Minister Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and
Christian Union (SDKU) seems slightly more "courageous,"
including several new faces among its top 20 (among them,
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Iveta Radicova, Minister
of Justice Lucia Zitnanska, government plenipotentiary for
Euro accession Ivan Stefanec, and former pollster and
Dzurinda policy advisor Tana Rosova). Their candidate list
indicates a "media friendly" SDKU campaign, though some
analysts wonder how the crew would fare as opposition
members. SDKU deputy Roman Vavrik, bitter at being left off
the new candidate list, told us Dzurinda used early elections
to bypass traditional party primaries, instead stacking the
list with friends and allies (COMMENT: Vavrik is widely
believed to be corrupt, and we believe it was smart for SDKU
to sideline him. END COMMENT). Also notable in his absence
from the SDKU roster is former Minister of Labor and Social
Affairs Ludovit Kanik, who was chairman of the Democratic
Party (DS) and spearheaded its merger with SDKU last year,
but who resigned in shame for misdirecting EU funds towards
his brother's business.


4. (SBU) Robert Fico's Smer party has not yet published its
complete candidate list, but did announce its top 20
positions. Member of European Parliament Monika Benova --
who had been in the second position -- resigned her position
and announced that she will not seek a parliamentary seat,
but would rather focus on seeking a position in the cabinet
as Minister of Foreign Affairs in the event Smer forms a
coalition. She then announced March 17 that she would no
longer be seeking the Ministerial position, either,
apparently as a result of intra-party disputes (to be
reported septel). The highest ranking former-SDL member
included on the Smer list occupies an unrealistic position on
the list, at 79.


5. (SBU) While there was no mystery surrounding who would
emerge in the top slot on former PM Vladimir Meciar's
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) list, Meciar did
keep pundits guessing by holding positions 2 and 3 open, to
be filled at a later time. HZDS' list was free from MPs with
scandalous media potential, including party loyalists instead.


6. (C) We also met with Free Forum (SF) member Lubica
Navratilova, who said that SF is focusing on education,
health care, and social issues. Active in 8 regional
capitals (but not the countryside),SF believes they are
taking voters from ANO and SDKU, and expects to gain 8
percent of the vote on election day. SF hopes to be in a
right-leaning government with SMK, KDH, and SDKU ("under the
right conditions"). With a foreign policy that is notably
similar to SDKU's, they tell us that their foreign policy
advisor is a diplomat currently overseas (COMMENT: All
indications point to current Slovak Ambassador to the U.S.
Rastislav Kacer (reftel). END COMMENT).
VALLEE