BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION TELLS BRATISLAVA THE

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000180

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SOCI LO BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION TELLS BRATISLAVA THE
REVOLUTION HAS BEGUN; SANCTIONS COULD HELP



1. (SBU) At a March 3 briefing hosted jointly at the MFA by
State Secretary (Deputy Minister) Magda Vasaryova and German
Marshall Fund's Pavol Demes, Belarusian opposition figures
Andrei Sannikov and Oleg Manaev told representatives from the
Canadian, U.S., and EU embassies that the Lukashenko regime
is "scared" and not in control following the March 2
pro-Milinkevich rally of thousands of youth in Minsk.
Canadian Professor and author David Marples told those
assembled that the prospects for change in Belarus are the
best that they have been in a while; Sannikov -- who wore a
blue ribbon made from denim in solidarity with the opposition
movement -- said "I dare to say that yesterday the Belarusian
revolution started." Sannikov also cited the more credible
opposition of Aleksandr Kazulin as another positive
development.

HOW TO AFFECT THE LUKASHENKO REGIME
--------------


2. (SBU) Manaev, a social scientist, stressed that the most
important issue for Belarus will be to publish the "real"
results (such as exit polling data) from the elections.
Assuming that Lukashenko manipulates another victory for
himself, Manaev said that the international community can
influence the regime by publishing the names of the
"nomenklatura" and others who have a hand in Lukashenko's
usurpation of democracy, posting their names online to draw
them into the international spotlight and away from the
safety of "Lukashenko's shadow." Sannikov suggested that the
international community consider a Hariri assassination-type
investigation of Belarusian officials who might be
responsible for the killings or disappearances of Belarusian
opponents of Lukashenko.


3. (SBU) The international community can also affect
Belarus by putting pressure on Russia, which Manaev says
keeps Lukashenko on a "short leash" via its manipulation of
gas prices.

ADDED URGENCY FOLLOWING MARCH 2
--------------


4. (SBU) The Belarusians said that the Minsk protest of
March 2 "added urgency" to the situation, but that while the
opposition feels solidarity and support, it lacks the
protection of the international community. They urged the
international community -- in the form of election monitors
-- to "stay with us" as long as possible after the elections.

EU AMBASSADORS WARY OF SANCTIONS
--------------


5. (SBU) Both spoke highly of recent meetings in Minsk with
EUR DAS Kramer, who mentioned the possibility of sanctions.
Manaev said that "Lukashenko is not dumb" and that he
understands that the trade balance for Belarus is shifting
away from Russia and towards the west, but that if Belarus'
economy is allowed to grow, Lukashenko will not change his
ways. (NOTE: Several EU Ambassadors were heard dismissing
Manaev's outlook on sanctions on the way to their cars. END
NOTE).
VALLEE