PARTICIPANTS IN GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS UNDER NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 000860

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL CO ELN ELN
SUBJECT: PARTICIPANTS IN GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS UNDER NO
ILLUSION OF QUICK SUCCESS

REF: BOGOTA 594

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. Reason: 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 9.



2. (C) Summary. The next formal round of the GOC-ELN
exploratory talks will take place in Havana on February
17-28. A preparatory phase for consultations with civil
society, including Colombian political parties, press, Church
officials, and diplomats from the three "accompanying
countries," will be held February 9-16. The principal
objective for the second round is to create an agenda for
actual negotiations. GOC and ELN officials appear to want to
move slowly and are not ready to tackle the substantive
issues; the Europeans and civil society guarantors are
pressing for faster action. While a third round is likely
months off, after presidential elections on May 28,
discussions are underway already among the various players to
hold it in Europe. End Summary.

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Guarantor Daniel Garcia-Pena
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3. (C) Garcia-Pena told poloffs on January 26 that the
GOC-ELN process was going slowly but would not break down.
He stressed that the ELN leadership wants to move slowly
because they have not thought through what price they want to
pay to "come in from the cold" and because they remain unsure
what they really want substantively. Garcia-Pena said the
GOC was equally cautious because, likewise, it is unsure how
the process is going to go and because of the electoral
campaign.


4. (C) Garcia-Pena, whom another of the five guarantors has
described as the "shadow foreign minister of the ELN"
reiterated how surprised the ELN was by the attitude of the
Colombian democratic left during the Casa de Paz initiative
(consultative process with civil society prior to the first
round of talks in Havana). According to Garcia-Pena,
representatives of the democratic left told ELN spokesman
Galan, "we welcome you but you must give up arms and resolve
your problems with Uribe. We don't like him but he is the
democratically-elected president of the country." Garcia
also said the ELN has kept the FARC closely informed about
developments. He characterized the FARC response as
"interesting": be careful with Uribe, don't trust him, you
shouldn't be doing this but it's your call and we respect
your decision. Garcia-Pena underscored that ELN-FARC
regional relationships depend on personalities, however, with
friendly/cooperative relationships existing alongside
conflict. As for the FARC, he said it only knows how to
resist, has no plans for political talks and no sense of what
it wants.

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Peace Commissioner Restrepo's Deputy
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5. (C) Ret. Major General Eduardo Herrera, who has been
serving as Restrepo's deputy, told polcouns on January 27
that he agreed with the assessment that both sides wanted to
move slowly. In his view, neither side really trusted the
other, nor was willing to make the necessary concessions to
move the talks along. The ELN was still reluctant to agree
to anything that would deliver Uribe a political victory and
more interested in stabilizing its considerable losses on the
battlefield. And the GOC was really not prepared to deal
with the ELN's "agenda for transition." Herrera also
reported difficulties between the three accompanying European
countries (Norway, Spain and Switzerland) and forecasted
difficulties down the line between the Europeans and the GOC.
The Europeans want things to move faster, he said. They want
to be facilitators, not observers. He also said the five
guarantors were revealing themselves to be closer to the ELN
than the GOC. The veneer of neutrality had almost
disappeared.


6. (C) Herrera said after the next round in Havana, barring
any unforeseen circumstances, formal discussions would be
suspended for several months (past the May 28 presidential
elections) with a third round perhaps in Geneva, Switzerland.
He noted that the Cubans were uncomfortable with the fact
that members of civil society (including the press) would be
descending on Havana for the February 9-16 pre-talks with not
enough to do, and inevitably turn their attention to Cuba's
human rights situation or other sensitive issues.

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Norwegians Cautiously Optimistic
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7. (C) Norway's negotiating team told polcouns over dinner on
January 24 that the GOC had to be more assertive in advancing
proposals if the next round of exploratory talks with the ELN
were to lead to a third. He asked that the U.S. do what it
could to push the GOC along these lines. Head of the Foreign
Ministry's Latin America Section Herberth Linder and
negotiator Johann Vibe were in Bogota to meet with the GOC,
ELN Spokesperson Galan (during his consultations in Bogota
with civil society and GOC officials per reftel) and Catholic
Church officials, along with charge d'affaires in Bogota
Sigurd Endressen. Linder also recommended that the talks be
moved out of Cuba. While the Cubans continued in a strictly
host role, he complained that they caused the delay in the
second round, insisting that they could not accommodate
everyone in Havana because of Jose Marti-related
celebrations. Why should we allow such events to diminish
momentum and stand in the way of progress, he said.

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Action Requested
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8. (C) Embassy would like to approach Bogota-based
journalists about focusing on Cuba's human rights situation
while in Havana covering the GOC-ELN talks and would
appreciate suggestions from the Department on what background
material to provide prior to their departure.

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Comment
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9. (C) We are not inclined to take up the Norwegian's request
to push the GOC for faster action. We have told the
Norwegians that the U.S. would be watching this process
carefully and would weigh in if the Europeans appeared to be
pressuring the GOC to make concessions. Our sense is that
both sides want to take this slow. Most importantly, we
should not support moving the talks to Europe without the
ELN's conceding something for it.
WOOD