LIKELIHOOD OF GOC-FARC HUMANITARIAN EXCHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 010337

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL PTER CO FR SP SZ
SUBJECT: LIKELIHOOD OF GOC-FARC HUMANITARIAN EXCHANGE
BLEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL TALKS CONTINUE

REF: (A) BOGOTA 9277 (B) BOGOTA 9779

Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer.
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)


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Summary
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1. (U) Prospects for GOC-FARC talks on a humanitarian
exchange of FARC political hostages for imprisoned terrorists
are bleak, but low-level efforts to resume contact continue.
Speaking at the Iberoamerican Summit, President Uribe left
open the door to talks, but only if the FARC stops terrorist
attacks. The FARC blamed Uribe for halting talks, but
reiterated its desire to conclude an exchange. Public opinion
backs Uribe's decision. End summary.

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Uribe Says Attacks Must Stop
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2. (C) Uribe told the Iberoamerican Summit on November 5 he
would not negotiate with the FARC unless it abandoned
terrorist attacks. The GOC and the FARC had exchanged media
statements about a humanitarian exchange of FARC-held
political hostages for imprisoned FARC terrorists in late
September and early October (ref A). The discussions came to
an abrupt halt the day after a FARC car bombing in Bogota,
when Uribe publicly revoked GOC outreach efforts to the
terrorist group (ref B). Referring to the car bombing, Uribe
told the Summit that Colombia could not move towards peace if
the FARC responded with car bombs. Uribe left open the
possibility of restarting discussions with the FARC, but only
if it stops terrorist attacks. Spanish President Jose Luis
Rodriguez Zapatero supported Uribe at the Summit, agreeing
that "one cannot have a dialogue with violence."

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FARC Says Open to Negotiations, Blames Uribe for Failure
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3. (U) On October 27, a FARC Secretariat statement asserted
Uribe had used the car bombing as an excuse to break off
talks, and reiterated an interest in a humanitarian exchange.
FARC commander Ivan Marquez repeated on October 31 the
FARC's willingness to make an exchange and mocked Uribe's
statement that the military would be able to rescue the
hostages.

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Low Level Talks Ongoing
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4. (C) Presidential advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria told us
Alvaro Leyva remains the only interlocutor with real contacts
to the FARC (ref A). Gaviria met Leyva on October 25 to
review the government's position that the FARC must stop
attacks for talks to resume. He assumed the October 27
communique reflected Leyva's intervention with the FARC, but
when they spoke again on October 28, Leyva would not confirm
that he had contacted the group.

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Public Reaction Mixed
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5. (C) The public supports Uribe's decision to break off
talks with the FARC by a margin of 56 to 38, according to a
October 29 Gallup poll. The same poll found declines in the
percentage of people who believe Colombia is more secure now
than a year ago, who feel the military can defeat the FARC,
and who approve of Uribe's handling of the conflict. Senate
President Dilian Francisca Toro Torres responded on October
20 to Uribe's ending discussions by stating that the welfare
of the hostages was paramount and that she hoped the
humanitarian exchange was still possible. Liberal party
official and former Defense Minister Rafael Pardo told us

November 2 that while prospects for a humanitarian exchange
are bleak, the issue will not disappear due to pressure from
the hostage' families, France, and other members of the
international community.
WOOD