Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BISHKEK766
2006-05-23 12:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

LITTLE TENSION IN RUN-UP TO MAY 27 OPPOSITION

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM PINS PREL ASEC KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 231221Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000766 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PINS PREL ASEC KG
SUBJECT: LITTLE TENSION IN RUN-UP TO MAY 27 OPPOSITION
DEMO, BUT POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS REMAINS

REF: BISHKEK 626

Classified By: DCM Donald Lu, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000766

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PINS PREL ASEC KG
SUBJECT: LITTLE TENSION IN RUN-UP TO MAY 27 OPPOSITION
DEMO, BUT POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS REMAINS

REF: BISHKEK 626

Classified By: DCM Donald Lu, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Four days before the large opposition
demonstration planned for May 27 in central Bishkek, tensions
are noticeably lower than in the run-up to the April 29
opposition protest (reftel). Opposition leaders have in
recent days backed away from an earlier vow to call for
President Bakiyev's resignation, and have said that the
protest will last no more than one day. Nevertheless, the
government is reacting in its typical Soviet fashion - on May
22 the government announced it would hold a celebration of
Border Guards Day, at the same time and place as the planned
demonstration - opening the door to a possible confrontation.
The Minister of Internal Affairs also told the Embassy that
he was concerned about the possibility of violence on May 27,
and asked the Embassy to reach out to the opposition to urge
restraint. However, on May 23, the Interior Minister told
the Ambassador that he would shortly begin talks with the
opposition to ensure a peaceful demonstration, and opposition
leaders told PolOff they will work with the MVD to find a
compromise solution. END SUMMARY.

OPPOSITION: BIG NUMBERS, MODEST PLANS
--------------


2. (SBU) Opposition leaders in recent days have stated
publicly their intention to bring up to 45,000 demonstrators
onto Bishkek's main square (Ala-Too Square) on May 27 in
support of opposition demands. Although these numbers are
certainly exaggerated, opposition leader and former Speaker
of Parliament Omurbek Tekebayev told the Ambassador that the
opposition hopes to bring out "one and half times" as many
people as appeared on the square on April 29 (NOTE: According
to Embassy and press estimates, between 6,000-8,000
opposition protesters demonstrated on April 29. The
opposition claimed "no less than 20,000, while official
Kyrgyz government estimates put the number at 15,000-17,000.

END NOTE).


3. (C) Nevertheless, opposition leaders in recent days have
backed away from some of their more inflammatory demands.
Tekebayev told the press on May 22 that they will not demand
Bakiyev's resignation, as Tekebayev had earlier vowed.
Tekebayev also told the Ambassador that there will be no more
demonstrations following this one until the fall, because "we
can't just keep gathering and doing nothing if there are no
results." Opposition leader and Parliamentarian Kubatbek
Baibolov expressed the same sentiments, telling the
Ambassador that he would support the demonstration only
reluctantly, because the demonstrations were having no effect
on President Bakiyev. Baibolov, Tekebayev and other
opposition leaders have notably not made the dire predictions
of bloodshed that Post heard frequently in the weeks and days
leading up to April 29.


4. (C) Opposition leader Almaz Atambayev told PolOff that
the opposition would not initiate any kind of violence on May
27, and would not storm the White House. Reverting back to
his usual bluster, however, Atambayev said that if the
government provokes a violent clash with the opposition, "we
won't be able to hold our people back, and President Bakiyev
won't be president anymore after May 27."

BUT POTENTIAL FOR TROUBLE REMAINS
--------------


5. (C) However, the government nevertheless seems intent on
spoiling opposition plans. On May 22, the Defense Minister -
taking a tried-and-true tactic from the Akayev playbook -
announced that the Ministry of Defense would celebrate Armed
Forces and Border Guards Day with a concert and ballroom
dancing contest on Ala-Too Square on May 27 (despite the fact

BISHKEK 00000766 002 OF 003


that Armed Forces and Border Guards Day is on May 28). The
Minister claimed that the event had been in the works for
months, and said the opposition would have to hold its
demonstration elsewhere.


6. (SBU) On May 23, civil society leader and protest
organizer Asiya Sassykbayeva told PolOff that the opposition
had decided to forge ahead with its plans to demonstrate on
Ala-Too Square, regardless of the government-sponsored
concert. She said organizers had agreed late on May 22
(following the MOD announcement) that the protest will begin
at 1100 on May 27, and if the concert is not finished by
then, demonstrators "will stand by and watch the concert,
then begin the protest when the concert ends." Atambayev
later outlined to PolOff essentially the same plans.
Sassykbayeva dismissed concerns over a potential clash
between demonstrators and police forces trying to prevent
them from reaching the square, claiming that the opposition
and MVD "will work everything out in advance, just like we
did for April 29." Head of the opposition Ar-Namys party
Emil Aliyev outlined the same scenario, and said the
opposition would "under no circumstances" back away from
plans to hold the demonstration on Ala-Too square. However,
Aliyev also said he was unconcerned over the potential for
violence.


7. (C) But even before the Defense Minister announced plans
to hold the concert on May 27, some in the government
appeared worried about the potential for violence on May 27.
The Interior Minister approached the RSO at a funeral on May
19 and asked the Embassy to approach the opposition and call
for restraint on May 27. The RSO told the Minister that it
was standard Embassy policy to always urge restraint on both
sides. However, when the RSO called mid-level MVD contacts
to inquire about plans for May 27, MVD officials were unaware
of MOD plans to hold a concert on the square on May 27,
despite the fact the MOD announcement was clearly meant to
draw a line in the sand for the opposition.


8. (C) Nevertheless, during a chance encounter with the
Ambassador on the steps of the White House on May 23,
Sutalinov said he would begin talks with opposition leaders
on May 24 in an effort to ensure a peaceful May 27. He said
the MOD concert would end by 1100, at which time
demonstrators would take to the square. Sutalinov was
unconcerned about the possibility of a clash between police
forces and demonstrators, but said he couldn't rule out the
possibility of an extremist group such as the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) disrupting the demonstration in
order to cause instability in the country. Sutalinov said
police had recently arrested a deputy imam in Jalalabad
Oblast for possession of explosives, and cited this as the
basis for his concern about extremists.


9. (C) COMMENT: There is no question that tensions in
Bishkek are markedly lower than during the run-up to the
April 29 demonstration, with neither side making the kinds of
dire predictions that we heard frequently in the weeks before
April 29. Nevertheless, neither the government nor the
opposition appear willing at this point to back away from
their plans to be present at the square on May 27, increasing
the likelihood of some kind of showdown in the days before or
on May 27. It's unfortunate that the government chose this
path ) the Defense Minister's claim that the Armed Forces
Day celebration had been in the works for month was a lie no
one in Bishkek believes. Scheduling concerts, children's
events and the like at the same time as opposition events is
an old Akayev trick. Fortunately, the Interior Minister and
his First Deputy are trusted by the opposition, and seem
genuinely interested in avoiding any kind of violence on May

27. The Interior Minister's statement that he will meet with
the opposition regarding the sequence of events on May 27 is
also reassuring. As they have so many times in the past, the
Kyrgyz will likely salvage a peaceful conclusion from a

BISHKEK 00000766 003 OF 003


potentially conflict-ridden situation, although there are
likely to be some tense moments in the coming days.
YOVANOVITCH