MAJOR GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP: OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000674

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PINR KG
SUBJECT: MAJOR GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP: OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLE

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 10, the government announced a major
personnel shakeup. As part of the reshuffling, National
Security Service (SNB) Chairman Tashtemir Aitbayev as well as
the Minister of Agriculture were dismissed, and State
Secretary Dastan Sarygulov resigned. Both Vice Prime

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Ministers (VPM) have been reassigned, with Prime Minister
Kulov's nemesis and former VPM Daniyar Usenov nominated to
become the new First VPM. The shakeup is in part a gesture
to the opposition, which demanded in the run-up to its April
29 demonstration the dismissal of both Sarygulov and
Aitbayev. But in the long-run, the personnel changes will
likely have little real effect on policy ) the two new Vice
Prime Ministers are longtime Bakiyev cronies, and it is
uncertain what if any influence the newly-appointed officials
actually have on President Bakiyev. END SUMMARY.

SHAKEUP NO REAL SURPRISE
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2. (SBU) The May 10 announcement of a major government
reshuffling came after weeks of rumors that just such changes
were in the works. The changes were foreshadowed by the May
4 replacement of President Bakiyev's representative in
Parliament Daniyar Narymbayev with Deputy Interior Minister
Alymbai Sultanov.


3. (SBU) As part of the reshuffling, the unpopular SNB
Chairman Tashtemir Aitbayev was sacked. Parliament had
explicitly called for Aitbayev's removal in February
following a scandal over the SNB's involvement with organized
crime. He will be replaced by the Head of the Office of
Defense and Security Policy under the Presidential
Administration Busurmankul Tabaldiyev. (NOTE: Tabaldiyev
also oversaw the drafting of Kyrgyzstan's Millennium
Challenge Threshold Program Proposal. END NOTE). Minister
of Agriculture Anarbayev was also sacked, and will be
replaced by Deputy Chief of Presidential Administration, Azim
Isabekov.


4. (SBU) Current First VPM Medetbek Kerimkulov was demoted
to Minister of Trade, Industry and Tourism (replacing
opposition figure Almaz Atambayev, who resigned from the job
in protest in late April). Kerimkulov will be replaced by
the controversial businessman and 2000 presidential candidate
Daniyar Usenov, who served previously as Acting First VPM
until November of 2005. The other Vice Prime Minister,
Adakhan Madumarov, will replace Sarygulov as State Secretary.
Sarygulov, who is deeply unpopular with the opposition,
resigned his post, but is rumored to be in the running for
the post of Governor of Issyk-Kul Oblast. Madumarov will be
replaced by current Rector of Kyrgyz National University (and
former Vice Prime Minister and Education Minister) Ishengul
Boljurova. The VPM and Ministers of Trade and Agriculture
appointments require parliamentary approval.

PERSONNEL CHANGES PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF THE SAME
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5. (C) COMMENT: Although it makes for dramatic headlines,
the reshuffling will likely have little effect on policy -
one group of Bakiyev cronies is being replaced by another,
with the two newly appointed Vice Prime Ministers returning
to the jobs they left only six months ago. The appointment
of Daniyar Usenov could ratchet up tensions between President
Bakiyev and Prime Minister Kulov (or signal an intention on
the part of Bakiyev to increase pressure on Kulov) in that
Kulov and Usenov are longtime rivals. Kulov reportedly told
Bakiyev in 2005 that he wouldn't work in any government in
which Usenov served. However, it is far from certain whether
Usenov will even be approved by Parliament for the First VPM
post ) he was overwhelmingly rejected by the Parliament for
the post of First VPM in November of 2005, and his popularity
has not improved since then.


6. (C) More importantly, the sacking of Aitbayev and

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resignation of Sarygulov are important concessions to the
opposition, and come on the heels of Bakiyev's May 3
directive to the Constitutional Reform Working group to
complete three draft constitutions by August 1. Opposition
leaders asked for the dismissal of both Aitbayev and
Sarygulov (as well as rapid progress on constitutional
reform) as part of their list of ten demands made to
President Bakiyev in the run-up to the April 29 opposition
demonstration. Bakiyev may also have forced Aitbayev and
Sarygulov out of the government in an effort defuse
opposition plans for another major demonstration on May 27.
The opposition has also demanded that Chief of Presidential
Administration Usen Sydykov and Procurator General Kombaraly
Kongantiyev be sacked as well. Pro-Bakiyev newspaper owner
Aleksandr Kim told the Ambassador that both Kongantiyev and
Sydykov will be sacked, but only after May 27 in that Bakiyev
does not want to appear to be caving in to opposition
demands. Daniyar Narymbayev is rumored to be the
front-runner to replace Kongantiyev, in the event these
personnel changes take place.
YOVANOVITCH