TOUGH TALK AMID HOPES FOR LAST MINUTE COMPROMISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000625

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCRM KG
SUBJECT: TOUGH TALK AMID HOPES FOR LAST MINUTE COMPROMISE
ON APRIL 29 DEMONSTRATION

REF: A. BISHKEK 614

B. BISHKEK 503

C. BISHKEK 605

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Tensions seemed to ease somewhat one day
before the large opposition demonstration planned for April
29 in Central Bishkek. Chief organizer Almaz Atambayev told
PolOff on April 28 that he hoped for 20,000 people at the
demonstration, but most Embassy contacts believe 4000-6000 a
more realistic number. Unlike his past two meetings with the
Embassy, Atambayev played down the possibility of violence,
but said he can't rule it out. Atambayev told PolOff that he
and other opposition leaders had met privately with President
Bakiyev, but he described the meetings as unproductive. The
government continues to take the demonstration very
seriously, with the Interior Ministry planning to deploy
every available police officer to maintain control in
Bishkek. Numerous Embassy contacts reported that the
National Security Service continues to pressure demonstration
organizers and others not to attend the rally, although a
senior government official told the Ambassador on April 27
that no such pressure was being applied. END SUMMARY.

RUMORS OF COMPROMISE IN THE AIR
--------------


2. (C) Former Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism and
chief demonstration organizer Almaz Atambayev told PolOff
that he had met one on one with President Bakiyev on the
evening of April 28. Atambayev described the meeting as
friendly, but said he and Bakiyev had not agreed on any kind
of compromise, and said Bakiyev had agreed only to help "make
peace" between the Central Election Commission (CEC) and
organized crime boss Ryspek Akmatbayev. (NOTE: The CEC and
Akmatbayev have been locked in a long-running dispute over
Akmatbayev's candidacy for parliament (reftel b). END NOTE).
Atambayev said other opposition leaders had also met
separately with Bakiyev, but said their meeting had also
achieved nothing. Busurmankul Tabaldiyev, Head of the
Presidential Administration Department of Defense and
Security, told the Ambassador on April 27 that President
Bakiyev was working with civil society members to create a
dialogue with opposition leaders, but provided no other
details. At 1730 on April 28, civil society leader Asiya
Sasykbayeva told PolOff that opposition parliamentarians
Temir Sariev and Omurbek Tekebayev had told Sasykbayeva that
they were ready to meet again with Bakiyev. But Sasykbayeva
said other opposition leaders were unwilling to meet with
Bakiyev, claiming further meetings with him would be
pointless.

TONING DOWN THE RHETORIC - SOMEWHAT
--------------


3. (C) Unlike his previous two meetings with the Embassy,
Atambayev seemed less resigned to the possibility of violence
on April 29. He stressed that the opposition would not
initiate any violence, and confirmed reports that opposition
organizers would provide up to 1500 of their own security
people to help maintain control. Later on April 28,
Atambayev held a press conference at which he stressed
repeatedly that the demonstration would be entirely peaceful,
and said any acts of violence would be initiated by the
government or criminal elements and not by the opposition.

BAKIYEV: "I'LL BREAK THEIR ARMS"
--------------


4. (C) The government, however, continued to talk tough. At
a press conference on April 26, President Bakiyev said he
would "break the arms" of anyone trying to overrun the White
House on April 29, and said security forces would "use the
strongest possible measures" to prevent demonstrators from
storming the White House. Other government officials have

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also spoken openly in recent days of their intention to use
deadly force to prevent any takeover of the White House.
Political analyst and former Foreign Minister Muratbek
Imanaliyev told PolOff that such talk was meant less to
discourage a potential coup attempt than to convince ordinary
people not attend the rally out of fear of bloodshed. On
April 27, several NGOs issued a press release protesting
Bakiyev's comments, saying they had been horrified by such
language coming from the President.

THE HARD SELL CONTINUES
--------------


5. (C) Numerous Embassy contacts confirmed that the SNB and
Presidential Administration are working overtime to
intimidate demonstration organizers and convince others not
to attend the protest. Former Foreign Minister Roza
Otunbayeva (whose political party is conspicuously NOT
supporting the demonstration) told the Ambassador that she
knew of several people who had been threatened by the SNB
over their participation in the rally. Both Muratbek
Imanaliyev and Almaz Atambayev said they too had heard
numerous reports of the same. Imanaliyev said he had been
told by a BBC correspondent that journalists were also being
told by the Presidential Administration "to keep away" from
the demonstration's main opposition organizers. Atambayev
alleged that members of mob figure Ryspek Akmatbayev's gang
are intimidating protest organizers, and are going around
telling bus drivers in towns surrounding Bishkek not to drive
demonstrators to Bishkek on April 29. Busurmankul Tabaldiyev
told the Ambassador that he had been traveling around the
country, trying to convince people not to take part in the
demonstration. He said such efforts had been successful in
most parts of the country, but admitted that "in Chui Oblast
(where Bishkek is located) we've still got some work to do."
However, Tabaldiyev denied that the SNB had pressured anyone
about attending the demonstration.


6. (C) The intimidation efforts appear to have been at least
somewhat successful, particularly among youth-oriented NGOs.
NGOs Kel-Kel (reftel a) and the National Student Union both
decided not to back the rally )- Kel-Kel after receiving
threats from the SNB, and the Student Union out of fears of
violence on April 29. Muratbek Imanaliyev told PolOff that
young NGO leaders were easily frightened off, but said that
more seasoned activists such as human rights advocate Aziza
Abdrasulova - who has also received threatening phone calls -
would demonstrate on April 29 regardless of threats.

FEARS OF VIOLENCE REMAIN
--------------


7. (C) Roza Otunbayeva told the Ambassador on April 27 that
she expects some kind of violence to occur on April 29.
Student Union leader Elnura Osmonalieva (protect) told PolOff
the Union board had voted not to participate in the rally out
of fears of violence, particularly that the government or
Ryspek Akmatbayev would cause some kind of "provocation."
Muratbek Imanaliyev said his contacts in the SNB said that
opinion within the SNB was divided over whether Ryspek
Akmatbayev would attempt to disrupt the rally. Two contacts
told the Embassy on April 27 that Akmatbayev's people were
already in Bishkek in preparation for the demonstration, but
had no information on what Akmatbayev's plans might be.

POLICE VOW TO MAINTAIN ORDER
--------------


8. (C) In separate meetings on April 28, the Minister and
Deputy Minister of the Interior told the Embassy that police
would do everything possible to prevent violence on April 29,
and that troublemakers would be dealt with harshly. Minister
Sutalinov told ARSO that police officials were in close
contact with the opposition, government, NGOs and even
organized crime groups in an effort to prevent violence.
Sutalinov told ARSO that his personal view is that there will

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be no violence. In a separate meeting, Deputy MVD Minister
Suvanaliyev told the Ambassador that demonstration organizers
had followed the law in notifying the city of their intent to
demonstrate, and agreed with the Ambassador that the
opposition has a right to peacefully express its views.
Suvanaliyev said he had heard unconfirmed reports that Ryspek
Akmatbayev would try to bring his people to Bishkek on April
29, adding that police would use "strong measures" against
any pro-Akmatbayev demonstration.

ATTENDANCE FIGURES, DURATION OF PROTEST STILL UP IN THE AIR
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Atambayev told PolOff that his Social Democratic
party alone would bring 10,000 demonstrators to Bishkek's
main square, but said he was unsure of how many people other
sponsors would bring (although he still hopes for an overall
turnout of 20,000). Other Embassy contacts, however,
estimated that 4000-6000 participants is a more likely
figure. Atambayev admitted that getting people from his
party to Bishkek would be difficult in the event roads
leading to Bishkek are closed. Atambayev told PolOff that
the duration of the demonstration would only be decided by
opposition leaders on the evening of April 28. At his press
conference, he said organizers notified the city of their
intent to stay on the square for up to five days.


10. (C) COMMENT: At this point, any last minute compromise
between Bakiyev and the opposition seems highly unlikely. By
all accounts, Bakiyev is unwilling to meet any of the
opposition demands or even engage opposition leaders in a
serious dialogue. Sensing this, most opposition leaders seem
to have given up hope that any further meetings with the
President could achieve real results. Nevertheless, there is
no question that tensions seem to have eased over the past
two days. The opposition is no longer hinting that it might
try to seize the White House, and has bent over backward in
recent days to stress their peaceful intentions. The
government, for its part, although still working hard to
frighten off demonstrators, has not tried to arrest or detain
opposition leaders or try to ban the demonstration outright -
measures that were considered entirely possible only a few
days ago. However, the potential for violence remains real,
and both the opposition and government have stressed
repeatedly that should it occur they will be ready.

YOVANOVITCH