CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION REFUSING TO CERTIFY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000503

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCRM KCOR KG
SUBJECT: CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION REFUSING TO CERTIFY
AKMATBAYEV ELECTION VICTORY

REF: A. BISHKEK 436

B. BISHKEK 186

C. BISHKEK 446

D. BISHKEK 496

E. BISHKEK 440

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 10, Central Election Commission
(CEC) Chairman Tuigunaly Abdraimov announced that the CEC
would not certify organized crime kingpin Ryspek Akmatbayev
as the winner of the April 9 parliamentary by-election
pending the outcome of Akmatbayev's impending re-trial for
three counts of murder. Although Abdraimov probably has the
law on his side, his attempts to block Akmatbayev's candidacy
appear to be motivated more by a desire to embarrass
President Bakiyev than a genuine interest in evenhandedly
enforcing the law. END SUMMARY.

LEGAL BASIS
--------------


2. (C) CEC Chair Abdraimov has taken the surprising decision
to refuse to certify Ryspek Akmatbayev as the winner of the
April 9 parliamentary by-election pending the outcome of
Akmatbayev's impending re-trial for murder. Although
Akmatbayev was acquitted of murder charges on January 25
(reftel b),the family of the victim appealed the verdict,
meaning Akmatbayev must stand trial again. Although the law
prohibits the arrest or trial of candidates for office, the
CEC declared that with the by-election over, Akmatbayev is no
longer a candidate and can stand trial.


3. (C) The April 10 CEC decision marked the second time
since March 30 that Abdraimov and the CEC have tried to block
Akmatbayev from reaching the parliament. On March 30, the
CEC revoked Akmatbayev's candidate registration, only to have
the decision overturned by a Bishkek court (reftel a). At a
press conference on April 11, Abdraimov alleged that
Akmatbayev himself called Abdraimov and threatened to kill
him in retaliation for the CEC decision. Abdraimov has since
hired a private security firm to protect him.

BUSINESS, OR PERSONAL?
--------------


4. (C) Parliamentarian Omurbek Babanov told Ambassador
Yovanovitch that CEC Chair Abdraimov himself had persuaded a
reluctant CEC on March 30 to vote to revoke Akmatbayev's
registration. Babanov, who was sitting in Abdraimov's office
following the CEC vote, said that Chief of Presidential Staff
Usen Sydykov called Abdraimov at least 20 times to urge
Abdraimov to rush the CEC ruling to a Bishkek court so that
Akmatbayev could file an appeal. (NOTE: According to the
law, the courts cannot review a CEC decision without a hard
copy of the CEC ruling. END NOTE). According to Babanov,
the Presidential Administration on March 30 spent much of the
day trying to find a Bishkek court willing to accept the
appeal, then badgered the CEC to send a copy of its ruling to
the court. In the end, a Bishkek district court convened
several days later, late on a Sunday evening, and overturned
the CEC decision (reftel c).


5. (C) COMMENT: It is clear that among CEC members,
Abdraimov himself has been the driving force behind the two
CEC attempts to block Akmatbayev's candidacy. What is less
clear is Abdraimov's motivation. According to President of
the NGO Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society Edil
Baisalov, Abdraimov ruled against Akmatbayev primarily
because he believes in enforcing the law. But Abdraimov
certainly has powerful political motives as well.
Abdraimov's standoff with Akmatbayev is part of a much larger
political game.


6. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: CEC Chair Abdraimov is a long-time
ally of Minister of Trade, Industry and Tourism Almaz

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Atambayev, who is close to Prime Minister Feliks Kulov (whom
Akmatbayev has publicly threatened to kill). Almaz Atambayev
clearly has larger ambitions. He recently initiated a public
spat with President Bakiyev over Bakiyev's decree (which
Atambayev defied) banning membership in political parties by
government ministers (Atambayev is the head of the Social
Democratic Party). Atambayev has run for president in the
past, and is one of the primary planners of an April 29
demonstration apparently designed to force Bakiyev to either
open negotiations with the opposition or resign from office.
Abdraimov himself is involved with this group (reftel d).
There are personal motives as well. A doctor by trade,
Abdraimov wanted very much to be Minister of Health, and has
been angry with President Bakiyev for not appointing him to
that position.


7. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: Each time Abdraimov blocks
Akmatbayev's path to the parliament, he forces the
Presidential Administration or the courts to intervene on
Akmatbayev's behalf. It is difficult to overestimate the
damage that this has done to Bakiyev's image and level of
support in the north, particularly in Bishkek and within the
Interior Ministry (MVD),which is convinced that Akmatbayev
killed an MVD Colonel in early 2005 (a crime for which
Akmatbayev is currently awaiting trial). Following the March
30 CEC decision, Akmatbayev bussed over one thousand
supporters to Bishkek on March 31, where they quickly
surrounded the White House (reftel e). President Bakiyev
went onto the street to meet with them, seeming to confirm
what most in Bishkek already firmly believe ) that Bakiyev
and Akmatbayev are somehow linked. Weakening Bakiyev further
may well be Abdraimov's ultimate goal. If so, he has already
done an effective job.
YOVANOVITCH