Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BISHKEK1826
2006-12-28 13:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:
KYRGYZ MANEUVERING TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001826
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ MANEUVERING TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION
REF: BISHKEK 1812
BISHKEK 00001826 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001826
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ MANEUVERING TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION
REF: BISHKEK 1812
BISHKEK 00001826 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) The political maneuvering continues in Bishkek
following the parliament's narrow failure to adopt a new
constitution December 25 (reftel). While pro-presidential
MPs vowed to put forward new amendments to the constitution,
some members of the opposition For Reforms movement
threatened renewed protests if there were further attempts to
restore the powers to the president lost under the November
constitution. For Reforms leaders MP Omurbek Tekebayev and
MP Bolot Sherniyazov met with President Bakiyev December 26,
and Tekebayev later told the press that Bakiyev said he was
willing to work with the current parliament, but many around
the President were continuing to press him to dissolve
parliament. Tekebayev said that the opposition was against
adopting a new constitution, but it would be willing to
consider amendments that were introduced in accordance with
constitutional procedures.
2. (SBU) Under the constitution, parliament has authority to
approve amendments, but only after a ruling from the
Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court must give its
ruling no earlier than three months and no later than six
months form the date of submission of the proposal to the
parliament. Currently, the Constitutional Court has two
vacancies and is not operational.
3. (C) Some commentators believe that a deal has already been
worked out regarding procedures for amending the constitution
and later dissolution of the parliament. Many
parliamentarians and others see new elections as an
opportunity to strengthen their positions. Former Director
of the International Institute of Strategic Studies Valentin
Bogatyryov told the Ambassador that it was significant that
Bakiyev and Tekebayev had met face-to-face for the first time
in nearly a year. He said parliament would first act to
confirm judges to the Constitutional Court, so that the court
could function. Next, parliament would submit proposed
constitutional amendments to the Court for a "rapid"
decision. Bogatyryov said that they would get around the
three-month wait requirement by agreeing on a legislative
fix, as they did in November.
4. (C) Many believe that early parliamentary elections are
inevitable, but the timing of elections is critical (Note:
the term of the current parliament expires in 2010. End
note.) Bogatyryov said that many MPs were afraid of the
President's threats to dissolve parliament immediately. They
needed time to put together a new election code and establish
new electoral districts. After that, it appears that many
parliamentarians are ready to take new chances and dissolve
the parliament, with elections possible in the fall.
5. (C) Former Foreign Minister Murat Imanaliyev told the
Ambassador that he thought the timing of these maneuvers was
being driven by outside (specifically Russian) political
advisors. He said that Bakiyev had become little more that a
"tool" for the Russians. Bogatyryov wouldn't go that far,
but he agreed that Bakiyev was being used.
6. (C) Comment: Today, parliament took up the question of
judicial vacancies, including working on filling the two
seats on the Constitutional Court. We anticipate that
parliament will take up the procedural questions regarding
amending the constitution, perhaps as early as tomorrow.
7. (C) Comment Continued: If the parliament and president
come to an accommodation, it leaves open the question of what
happens with the government. It seems unlikely that this
parliament would confirm Kulov as prime minister; on the
other hand, the president could legally dissolve parliament
if it fails to confirm a new government. Once again, it
BISHKEK 00001826 002.2 OF 002
hinges on the relationship between the president and the
prime minister and whether the president believes it is wiser
to hold the prime minister close or abandon him and deal with
the inevitable political consequences.
8. (C) Comment Continued: Imanaliyev and Bogatyryov both
cautioned against looking at this struggle from the Western
perspective with hundreds of years of constitutional history.
What was important here, they said, was for the key players
to come to agreement, not whether any maneuver was
constitutional.
YOVANOVITCH
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ MANEUVERING TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION
REF: BISHKEK 1812
BISHKEK 00001826 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) The political maneuvering continues in Bishkek
following the parliament's narrow failure to adopt a new
constitution December 25 (reftel). While pro-presidential
MPs vowed to put forward new amendments to the constitution,
some members of the opposition For Reforms movement
threatened renewed protests if there were further attempts to
restore the powers to the president lost under the November
constitution. For Reforms leaders MP Omurbek Tekebayev and
MP Bolot Sherniyazov met with President Bakiyev December 26,
and Tekebayev later told the press that Bakiyev said he was
willing to work with the current parliament, but many around
the President were continuing to press him to dissolve
parliament. Tekebayev said that the opposition was against
adopting a new constitution, but it would be willing to
consider amendments that were introduced in accordance with
constitutional procedures.
2. (SBU) Under the constitution, parliament has authority to
approve amendments, but only after a ruling from the
Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court must give its
ruling no earlier than three months and no later than six
months form the date of submission of the proposal to the
parliament. Currently, the Constitutional Court has two
vacancies and is not operational.
3. (C) Some commentators believe that a deal has already been
worked out regarding procedures for amending the constitution
and later dissolution of the parliament. Many
parliamentarians and others see new elections as an
opportunity to strengthen their positions. Former Director
of the International Institute of Strategic Studies Valentin
Bogatyryov told the Ambassador that it was significant that
Bakiyev and Tekebayev had met face-to-face for the first time
in nearly a year. He said parliament would first act to
confirm judges to the Constitutional Court, so that the court
could function. Next, parliament would submit proposed
constitutional amendments to the Court for a "rapid"
decision. Bogatyryov said that they would get around the
three-month wait requirement by agreeing on a legislative
fix, as they did in November.
4. (C) Many believe that early parliamentary elections are
inevitable, but the timing of elections is critical (Note:
the term of the current parliament expires in 2010. End
note.) Bogatyryov said that many MPs were afraid of the
President's threats to dissolve parliament immediately. They
needed time to put together a new election code and establish
new electoral districts. After that, it appears that many
parliamentarians are ready to take new chances and dissolve
the parliament, with elections possible in the fall.
5. (C) Former Foreign Minister Murat Imanaliyev told the
Ambassador that he thought the timing of these maneuvers was
being driven by outside (specifically Russian) political
advisors. He said that Bakiyev had become little more that a
"tool" for the Russians. Bogatyryov wouldn't go that far,
but he agreed that Bakiyev was being used.
6. (C) Comment: Today, parliament took up the question of
judicial vacancies, including working on filling the two
seats on the Constitutional Court. We anticipate that
parliament will take up the procedural questions regarding
amending the constitution, perhaps as early as tomorrow.
7. (C) Comment Continued: If the parliament and president
come to an accommodation, it leaves open the question of what
happens with the government. It seems unlikely that this
parliament would confirm Kulov as prime minister; on the
other hand, the president could legally dissolve parliament
if it fails to confirm a new government. Once again, it
BISHKEK 00001826 002.2 OF 002
hinges on the relationship between the president and the
prime minister and whether the president believes it is wiser
to hold the prime minister close or abandon him and deal with
the inevitable political consequences.
8. (C) Comment Continued: Imanaliyev and Bogatyryov both
cautioned against looking at this struggle from the Western
perspective with hundreds of years of constitutional history.
What was important here, they said, was for the key players
to come to agreement, not whether any maneuver was
constitutional.
YOVANOVITCH