KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON AIRBASE SHOOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001753

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL OSCE MARR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON AIRBASE SHOOTING
INCIDENT

REF: A. BISHKEK 1736

B. BISHKEK 1733

C. BISHKEK 1722

D. BISHKEK 1706

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY. On December 12, Ambassador met with
Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Ermek Ibragimov regarding
the way ahead on the Manas air base shooting incident. He
agreed that the incident had become an internal political
issue, making it harder to contain. He raised questions
about the immunity of U.S. personnel at the base and said it
was important for the U.S. to respond to the Kyrgyz
diplomatic notes on the incident, so that we can start moving
forward, and suggested several other steps to create a better
public perception of the base. Ibragimov requested the U.S.
collision report noting that the accumulation of incidents
was creating a difficult environment, which in turn made it
more difficult to resolve the incidents. END SUMMARY.

CONTROVERSY CONTINUES
--------------


2. (C) On December 12, Ambassador met with Presidential
Foreign Policy Advisor Ermek Ibragimov regarding the way
ahead on the shooting incident (Refs a, b,c). Ambassador
said that the shooting was a tragedy, but it was important to
look at the incident in context and manage the political
fallout. Ibragimov agreed that the incident had become an
internal political issue as much as anything. He added that
&political forces8 -- and specified the Russians -- were
trying to use the incident to create issues about the base
once again. He said that there is a possibility that
parliament will discuss this issue; Deputy Tekebayev has told
us the same thing.


3. (C) Ibragimov also said that Foreign Minister
Jekshenkulov was not raising the issue of the immunity of
base personnel in a constructive way and that we were
returning to the &situation in the spring,8 although he did
not think that the entire MOU would be put on the table
again. Ambassador said she was sure that Ibragimov knew the
U.S. position on immunity for servicemen, and that changing
this would create a precedent and was therefore unlikely.
Ibragimov noted that several years ago the Georgians had
stripped a Georgian diplomat in Washington of his immunity
following a drunk driving incident; perhaps we could follow
the same model, he suggested, although the Kyrgyz &could
give the Airman back.8

KYRGYZ NEED A RESPONSE
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4. (C) Ibragimov said it was important for the U.S. to
respond to the diplomatic notes the MFA has sent regarding
the incident, so that we could discuss the issues and try to
put the issue behind us ) or at least lower the profile over
the Kyrgyz holidays. &Talking is still better than
silence,8 he said, although he noted that he was less
optimistic than he had been previously. Ibragimov noted that
if the U.S. agrees to a joint working group regarding the
Base, he did not want to make the same mistake as last spring
by making an announcement about the group as expectations
would be raised regarding the immunity issue. The Ambassador
pointed out that it was the President who had raised the
issue on national television: expectations were already
raised. Ibragimov winced, but claimed the President had had
no choice; the President needed to show the Kyrgyz people
that he was defending their interests.

CONSTRUCTIVE SUGGESTIONS
--------------

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5. (C) Ibragimov asked what the U.S. planned to do to help
the widow and was not completely surprised when the
Ambassador explained that U.S. compensation procedures could
only be invoked in the case of a finding of wrongful action
on the part of the U.S. airman. He noted the difference in
practice in Kyrgyzstan and said that the public would look at
the case differently, if the U.S. took care of the next of
kin. Ibragimov also urged full transparency when the
investigation is concluded, as he said that rumors are
multiplying that the driver was shot in the back. This
creates a difficult public atmosphere, he concluded.

COLLISION REPORT OVERDUE
--------------


6. (C) Ibragimov asked when the Kyrgyz would receive the
Acccident Investigation Board report regarding the September
collision. He urged that we speed up the process and said
the U.S. is not being responsive. He cautioned that the
cumulative effect of the two car accidents (with, he alleged,
two Kyrgyz fatalities and no punishment for US Servicemen),
the September collision, and the shooting incident was not
only harmful to bilateral relations, it was harmful to the
base and raises questions about the presence of the base.

BASE ISSUES AFFECT OTHER BILATERAL EQUITIES
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador raised the harassment of NDI, IRI and
IFES by the Procuracy (Ref d). She noted that Jekshenkulov
had told her he would discuss the issue with General
Procurator Kongantiyev. Ambassador related a disturbing
conversation that she had with Kongantiyev on the margins of
a conference. Kongantiyev said the 1993 Bilateral Agreement
that governs U.S assistance in Kyrgyzstan was &illegal,8
because it had not been ratified by the U.S. Congress and
that U.S. implementers needed to obey the law. The
Ambassador agreed that U.S. implementers -- and for that
matter everyone in Kyrgyzstan -- had to obey the law.
However, she said that it appeared that the law was being
selectively applied for political reasons. In addition, she
noted that if the Kyrgyz called the 1993 Bilateral Agreement
into question it would affect not only democracy programs,
but other forms of assistance including assistance to the
Procuracy. Ambassador reminded Ibragimov that he had told
her there was no political connection, but this seemed highly
unlikely and the issue needed to be solved politically as he
had promised last week. Ibragimov took the point, but noted
that it would be difficult to solve while the Base issues
were so controversial. The Ambassador noted that NDI, IRI
and IFES had strong constituencies in Washington, and that
our concerns on this issue would not diminish.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The Kyrgyz are angry over the shooting incident, and
they are becoming angrier about what they perceive as a
pattern of a lack of responsiveness from the U.S. The sooner
we can respond, and the more flexible we can be in our
response without giving away U.S. equities, the better for
the long-term situation at the Base. The same is true for
the Accident Investigation Board Report regarding the
September collision, which unfortunately has become conflated
with the shooting incident -- and other resentments including
the widely-held perception that the Kyrgyz are not adequately
compensated for the Base -- making both issues more difficult
to resolve.


9. (C) While the rhetoric in many circles remains white-hot
and some public officials continue to stoke the flame, others
officials are becoming more temperate. However, they are not
sure how to walk back the immunity issue, as it has been put

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into the public arena by the President himself. We hope that
Ibragimov,s comparison to the situation last spring is
valid. At that time, the President had publicly raised the
price of the base to dizzying heights and in April even
issued a public ultimatum regarding the negotiations, but in
the end accepted far less than he had initially insisted on
publicly. While some criticized the President,s
intemperance, others appeared to view the tough talk as a
handy substitute for action. That said, it does not appear
that the Kyrgyz themselves know exactly where they want to go
on these issues, making it harder for us to game out whether
they will insist on lifting immunities or seek greater
compensation. Moreover, the number of incidents that have
accumulated since the spring has helped create a highly
charged atmosphere where it is difficult to find common
ground.
YOVANOVITCH