Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BISHKEK1710
2006-12-05 05:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

PM KULOV: CAUTIOUSLY MOVING FORWARD IN A NEW ERA

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM MARR ASEC KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001710 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR ASEC KG
SUBJECT: PM KULOV: CAUTIOUSLY MOVING FORWARD IN A NEW ERA

REF: A. BISHKEK 1705

B. BISHKEK 1621

BISHKEK 00001710 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001710

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR ASEC KG
SUBJECT: PM KULOV: CAUTIOUSLY MOVING FORWARD IN A NEW ERA

REF: A. BISHKEK 1705

B. BISHKEK 1621

BISHKEK 00001710 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with Prime Minister Kulov
November 30 to discuss a range of issues. Kulov called the
new constitution "flawed" and said that the president emerged
as the "big winner." He expressed little faith in the
political opposition, saying they were disunited and corrupt.
He said that Bakiyev would address parliament December 4 and
urge the deputies to pass stalled legislation; if the
deputies did not act, "anything" would be possible, including
dissolving parliament. Kulov said that public and
parliamentary opinion was very strong that the U.S. was at
fault for the collision at Manas Airport and should provide
compensation. Kulov said that he favored joining the HIPC
initiative, but Kyrgyzstan would join only if the government
determined it would be in the country's interest. END
SUMMARY.

Current Political Situation
--------------


2. (C) Kulov said that he did not view the new constitution
as a big accomplishment. He had preferred a different
version that he had hoped would be passed. The new
constitution, he said, is flawed and "much needs to be
changed." He added that it is not good when things are done
in such a hurry.


3. (C) Contrary to some analysts' views, Kulov believes that
the PM does not acquire more powers under the new
constitution. Kulov said that it is the President who is the
big winner. Presidential powers remain the same, and
President still appoints the PM. Therefore, under Kyrgyz
conditions, "the Prime Minister will always be that person
the president needs." Kulov said that in Kyrgyzstan today,
political parties are not strong or well developed, but the
new constitution gives them an important role in the
parliament. He said that Bakiyev would be able to field the
strongest party, and even if his party does not win the
majority, if the majority party fails to form a government,

he can then ask any party to form a government.


4. (C) During the early November demonstrations, Kulov said
he told the Opposition not to focus on personalities. He
said that his own role during this period was to assure that
whatever happened was peaceful and that there was no
North-South divide. Kulov said that the Opposition wanted to
take over the White House and other critical points, and he
told them that while he was for reform, he wanted this to be
done peacefully. He claimed opposition leader Almaz
Atambayev said that even if 1000 people die, it would be
worth it, because we "have to take power." Kulov said he
replied that he would not support this, to which Atambayev
said "then you are supporting the south over the north."
Kulov said that may be, but power at such a cost is worth
nothing. He said he told the Opposition that even if they
came to power, they would fail, because they did not have a
unified view and they were corrupt. Kulov predicted that if
the Opposition did come to power, he (Kulov) would be back in
power within 2-3 years, because he would be needed.


5. (C) Looking to the future, Kulov said the President would
go to Parliament December 4 and ask the deputies to pass
about 50 pending laws covering economic development and other
measures needed to implement the constitution. If the
parliamentarians did not act, the PM said "anything was
possible," including dissolution of parliament. He noted,
however, that the President cannot just write a decree
dissolving parliament; this has to be done according to the
law and the constitution. Kulov said that there are "many
possibilities in the law" to dissolve parliament. Somewhat
contradictorily, Kulov also said that that the only
possibility to dissolve parliament and the best way forward
would be for Kulov himself to resign. He said he was
prepared to do this, but the President did not want him to

BISHKEK 00001710 002.2 OF 003


go. Kulov concluded that dissolution of the parliament was
not the most likely scenario.

Harassment of NDI/IRI/IFES
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador raised concerns about the Prosecutor
General's investigation into the activities of NDI, IRI, and
IFES, and she passed Kulov a copy of the diplomatic note the
Embassy had sent requesting an explanation for the
investigation. Kulov said he was unaware of the situation
and claimed the government had nothing to do with it, that
the PG has higher powers to review what is happening and even
change government decisions. He added that the PG does not
report to the PM under the new constitution. (Comment: On
December 1, Deputy Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov told Ambassador
that the Prime Minister had agreed that the harassment of
USAID grantees must stop and that State Secretary Madumaorv
should call the Prosecutor General. End Comment.)

Collision at Manas Airport
--------------


7. (C) The Ambassador told Kulov that our report of the
accident at Manas Airport was not yet ready, but we had
indications that it would differ from the Kyrgyz report. The
Ambassador said we want to share the report before it is
released to the press and want to lay out a way forward. She
said it would be important to work together constructively.


8. (C) Kulov said that public opinion and parliamentary
opinion was very strong that the U.S. was at fault and that
the U.S. should provide compensation. The Ambassador noted
that the public/parliament might not have all the facts, and
we also have a parliament that watches such issues; it was
best to try to work on this together. Kulov suggested that
we not make our report public, but try to work together to
find a compromise. The Ambassador pointed out that the
Kyrgyz had already publicly released their report and that
our procedure was to release publicly the findings; moreover
we could not leave the misimpression that the U.S. was 100%
to blame if that was not the finding.

REMAP
--------------


9. (C) The Ambassador outlined for the PM USAID's new
Regional Energy Market Assistance Program (REMAP). The Prime
Minister was interested, but suggested we wait on a full
briefing until the new Ministry of Energy is formed. He
expects this to happen before the end of the year. He is
very interested, but wants the new ministry to handle this.

HIPC
--------------


10. (C) The PM said there is a firestorm around the issue;
only two people (himself and the Minister of Finance) are in
favor of HIPC. He noted that Kyrgyzstan would only join if
it was in their interests, and the President would do
whatever the PM advised.

KIDNAPPING OF EMBASSY SPOUSE/SD TEAM
--------------


11. (C) Ambassador briefed Kulov on the recent kidnapping of
an Embassy spouse (Ref B) and thanked the Prime Minister for
the excellent investigative efforts of the MVD. She noted
that had the Surveillance Detection (SD) Team been
operational at the time of the kidnapping, there might have
been a chance to prevent the incident. She asked the Prime
Minister to sign an MOU regarding the SD Team and passed a
suggested draft. The Prime Minister said he would ask his
lawyers to review the document and would get back to the
Ambassador.

COMMENT
--------------

BISHKEK 00001710 003.2 OF 003




12. (C) While most agree that the Prime Minister came out
ahead with the new constitution, the PM himself is playing
this very carefully. He remains a target of the opposition
and needs a continued alliance with the President.
Ironically, one outcome of the November demonstrations is the
strong "tandem" between the President and Prime Minster that
everyone had hoped for in 2005. Perhaps this desire not to
overplay his hand accounts for the caution the PM displayed
in his meeting with the Ambassador. From REMAP to the
harassment if USAID democracy grantees, Kulov was attentive
and polite but noncommittal. On the September airplane
collision at Manas, however, Kulov clearly laid out Kyrgyz
expectations; this is significant coming from a consistently
strong proponent of the Base.
YOVANOVITCH