POLITICS REMAIN CONTENTIOUS IN KYRGYZSTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001705

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: POLITICS REMAIN CONTENTIOUS IN KYRGYZSTAN

REF: BISHKEK 1643

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Three weeks have passed since President
Bakiyev and the opposition reached a compromise on a new
constitution. The presidential administration continues to
translate the document from Russian to Kyrgyz, and we expect
that a final version will be published in early December. In
the meantime, the political atmosphere remains contentious,
as the government and the parliament continue to disagree
about the balance of powers under the existing governmental
structure and over implementation of the new constitution.
President Bakiyev, who has been less than conciliatory toward
the opposition, plans to address parliament December 4 to
offer a "constructive message" and to urge the
parliamentarians to move forward by the end of the year with
numerous stalled pieces of legislation, some of which are
needed to implement the new constitution. There are signs
that the government is also targeting key opposition members
for retribution. In addition, deeper splits are emerging in
the parliament and even among the members of the opposition
themselves. END SUMMARY.

Wasting Time
--------------


2. (C) Three weeks have passed since President Bakiyev and
the opposition reached a compromise on the text of a new
constitution, and a final text has yet to be published as the
presidential administration continues its work on a
translation from Russian to Kyrgyz. Some contacts have
expressed concern that the final Kyrgyz text may not conform
to what was agreed November 9. MP Kamchibek Tashiyev, the
only parliamentarian to vote against the new constitution,
speculated that the presidential administration was making
substantive changes before releasing a final text. Others,
including State Secretary Madumarov and MP Ishkak Masaliyev,
however, do not think an Akayev-era "bait-and-switch" is
likely. We are hearing from other interlocutors that the
constitution will be published in early December -- largely
in the form agreed to on November 9.


3. (C) Some opposition members, including Adilet Legal
Clinic's Cholpon Jakupova and Coalition for Democracy and
Civil Society's Edil Baisalov have complained that President
Bakiyev is taking advantage of the delay in publication to
exercise powers that he would no longer have under the new
constitution. In the past month, President Bakiyev has
continued to make appointments -- the new governor of Chui
Oblast, for example -- that the opposition maintains are not
within his powers under the new constitution. The
Presidential Administration claims, however, that the law
which gives this power to the president is in effect until a
new law implementing the new constitution is passed.


4. (C) The opposition has continued to call for Prime
Minister Kulov to resign, and some opposition MPs have
discussed plans to remove the prime minister and remake the
government. State Secretary Madumarov, however, told us that
the new constitution does not give the parliament the right
to nominate a new prime minster and form a new government
without the approval of the president -- until the election
of a new parliament based on party lists. Madumarov even
suggested that until there are new parliamentary elections
based on party lists, the current parliament could be
considered to be working "illegally."

Dissolving Parliament?
--------------


5. (C) There is also rampant speculation that the parliament
may be dissolved by spring. MP Tashiyev has called for the
parliament to disband itself and move for new elections, but
this does not appear to have any support within the
parliament. Speaker of Parliament Murat Sultanov said that
there was no need to dissolve parliament immediately, as the
new constitution enables the president to play the role of

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arbiter and resolve conflicts, if necessary. Others believe
that Bakiyev will move to dissolve parliament, although the
president cannot do so unilaterally under the new
constitution. Prime Minister Kulov told the Ambassador
November 30 that he did not think that dissolution of
parliament was a likely scenario, but it was a possibility,
especially if the parliamentarians do not take action on the
many laws pending before them. Deputy Head of the
Presidential Administration Medet Sadyrkulov admitted that
there were some within the administration who wanted to
dissolve the parliament, but he said that they were "in the
minority."

Bakiyev on Top?
--------------


6. (C) Some government insiders believe that, contrary to
popular view, the new constitution actually strengthens the
presidency. State Secretary Madumarov asserted that the new
constitution changes nothing: the president still has the
right to appoint and dismiss ministers, and both internal and
external policies remain completely under the President's
control. Prime Minister Kulov said that the president was
the "big winner." Presidential powers remain the same, and
the president still appoints the prime minister. Therefore,
under Kyrgyz conditions, "the prime minister will always be
that person the president needs," according to Kulov. In
addition, Kulov said that Bakiyev would benefit from the
increased role given to political parties in parliament under
the new constitution. Political parties in today's
Kyrgyzstan were weak, he said, but Bakiyev would be able to
field the strongest party, and even if his party did not win
the majority, if the majority party fails to form a
government, he could then ask any party to form a government.

Further Splits?
--------------


7. (C) MPs are scrambling to align themselves with parties
and committees that they feel will secure their re-election
to parliament under new elections, which some believe could
happen in 2007. Speaker Sultanov said that partisanship
would not necessarily weaken the parliament's effectiveness
as Kyrgyzstan's third branch of power. Sultanov noted that
the most powerful bloc in parliament is not the opposition,
but the thirty so-called "independent" MPs who can swing
either way and were the deciding factor in approving the new
constitution. Sultanov, nevertheless, believed that balance
within parliament could be achieved, despite pro-opposition
and pro-Bakiyev MPs appearing to drift further apart.


8. (C) There have also been signs of further splits among the
opposition members, as they squabble over forward strategy.
In addition, some in the opposition have claimed that the
government is targeting them in retribution for supporting
the early-November street protests. For Reforms leader MP
Omurbek Babanov told the Ambassador that his bodyguards
(MVD-supplied, but he pays for them) had been taken away.
Others, including local NGOs, have complained of increased
harassment from tax and other officials.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Following the agreement November 9 on a new
constitution, the Kyrgyz Government has wasted nearly a month
preparing a final text. The government and the parliament
have made little or no progress in preparing legislation to
conform existing laws to the new constitution -- and they
must do so within six months of the constitution coming into
effect. The gap between the opposition and the government
appears to be widening, and there are further splits emerging
among the already fractious members of the opposition. Some
in the government are clearly pushing a hard line against the
opposition, but it is not clear whether they have Bakiyev's
ear. We will be watching closely Bakiyev's address to
parliament December 4 for signs of conciliation and
compromise -- or for signs that the battle lines are being

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drawn.
YOVANOVITCH