KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001554

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DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST UPDATE

REF: A. BISHKEK 1551

B. BISHKEK 1548

C. BISHKEK 1537

D. STATE 180495

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In Parliament on November 3, Prime Minister
Kulov said that the government had received a taped
conversation of opposition leaders planning to seize
government buildings and regional administrations. State
Secretary Madumarov claimed the tape "made obvious" that

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there was foreign government involvement (and large sums of
money) in the demonstration. The tape was played in
Parliament, and Speaker of Parliament Sultanov then said that
experts should evaluate whether the tape is authentic.
Several opposition figures denied that they intended to
overthrow the government. The MFA distributed a transcript
of the tape to the diplomatic corps, and the transcript and
an mp3 file were posted to the Internet.


2. (C) The opposition protest continued through the night of
November 2-3, with approximately 500 protesters spending the
night in tents on the central Ala-too Square. The crowd grew
to more than 1000 in the morning. At 1300 local,
approximately 600-700 protesters left the square and marched
to City Hall, where they demanded that the mayor resign.
From there, the protesters marched to the state-owned KTR
television studios, and a group of opposition leaders met
with KTR officials to demand airtime in the evening, in part
to explain the tape. KTR will reportedly give the opposition
airtime in the evening.


3. (C) At 1500, the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs
described the situation as "pretty quiet." He had no idea
how much longer the protest would continue, but he assured
the Ambassador that the police would take no harsh measures.
In the late afternoon, demonstrators peacefully occupied the
administrative building in an eastern Bishkek suburb, and
there was a small demonstration in Talas. As of 1700, the
crowd in Ala-too Square had grown to approximately 2000, with
an increased number of militia and National Guard troops
deployed around the White House.


4. (C) The Presidential Administration confirmed to the
Ambassador that President Bakiyev would present his draft of
a new constitution to the Parliament on November 6. The
Deputy Head of the Administration dismissed Madumarov's
charges of foreign involvement in the protest. END SUMMARY.

Televised Debate on November 2
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5. (SBU) At 2100 November 2 following the first day of the
protest on Ala-too Square, state-owned KTR broadcast a live
debate/discussion with Prime Minister Kulov, State Secretary
Madumarov, and MPs Azimbek Beknazarov, Kanybek Imanaliyev,
Sultan Urmanayev, and Isa Omurkulov. Beknazarov was harshly
critical of the government. Kulov said that the constitution
could not be reformed in one day, and that he had no
intention of resigning. He also asked people not to
participate in any counter-demonstrations.

Opposition Tape Played in Parliament
--------------


6. (SBU) In the morning of November 3, Prime Minister Kulov
appeared in Parliament to say that overnight the government
had received a tape recording (diskette) of opposition
leaders plotting to overthrow the government by seizing
particular buildings and regional administrations. The tape
was played in Parliament, and Speaker of Parliament Sultanov
said that experts should determine its authenticity. State
Secretary Madumarov said the recording revealed precise plans

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and timings for seizures of government buildings, and he
claimed it was "obvious" that some foreign states
participated in this "attempt at destabilization." Civil
society activist and demonstration participant Edil Baisalov
(purportedly on the tape) charged that the tape was a fake,
and MP Bolotbek Sherniyazov (also purportedly on the tape)
said that the opposition had no plans to overthrow the
government.


7. (C) At 1230, the MFA convoked the diplomatic corps to
provide an update of the situation and to hand out a
transcript of the tape (Note: the transcript was scanned and
emailed to SCA/CEN). Responding to a question from the
Ambassador, First Deputy Foreign Minister Taalay Kydyrov said
the MFA had no information regarding foreign government
support for the demonstration. (Comment: A number of
diplomats believe the release of the transcript by the MFA is
a way for the GOKG to lay out the justification for a use of
force should that become necessary. Ambassador reached MVD
Deputy Suvanaliyev and Deputy Head of the Presidential
Administration Sadyrkulov to repeat our concern about the
situation and that all sides should act non-violently and in
accordance with the constitution. The Ambassador will see
the Foreign Minister and repeat the same message at 1700
November 3. End comment.)


8. (SBU) The tape purports to be a recording of opposition
leaders planning to seize government buildings, take over
regional administrations, and block roads around the country.
The quality of the tape, as played in Parliament and as
heard over the Internet, is very poor. According to the
transcript, the following individuals are on the tape: NGO
leader Asiya Sasykbaeva, Edil Baisalov, Almaz Atambaeyev, MP
Omurbek Tekebayev, MP Melis Eshimkanov, MP Bolotbek
Sherniyazov, MP Temir Sariyev, MP Kanybek Imanaliyev, MP
Kabay Karabekov, former Ambassador Roza Otunbayeva, Adilet
Legal Clinic director Cholpon Jakupova, Rakhan Irsaliyev, and
three unidentified persons.


9. (C) SNB Chair Maj. Gen. Murat Sutalinov denied that the
SNB had anything to do with obtaining the tape; he said that
a For Reforms member had delivered it to the government.
Presidential Chief of Staff Myktybek Abdyldayev reportedly
told the crowd of protesters at KTR (see paragraph 11) that
Prime Minister Kulov had approved the wiretapping of the
opposition leaders. Mid-afternoon on November 3, Prime
Minister Kulov's press officer contacted the Embassy, trying
to track down a rumor that international organizations had
copies of the transcript before the Prime Minister revealed
the tape in Parliament in the morning, and worried Kulov may
have been set up with a fake. We replied that we did not
have the transcript ahead of time.

Rally Continues Overnight
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10. (SBU) In the evening of November 2, two large truckloads
of food were delivered to the protesters on Ala-too Square.
Following dinner, the crowd dissipated. Approximately 500
opposition protesters remained on the square overnight,
staying in approximately 60 small tents, 40 medium-sized
tents, and four yurts set up on the south side of the square.
In the morning of November 3, the crowd grew to
approximately 1000 demonstrators (and numerous onlookers).
Law enforcement personnel, numbering in the hundreds,
remained in the vicinity of the square throughout the morning.

Opposition to Get Airtime
--------------


11. (C) At 1300 local November 3, approximately 600-700
protesters left the square and marched to City Hall, where
they demanded that the mayor resign. From there, the
protesters marched to the state-owned KTR television studios,

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where they demanded to meet with KTR officials. Edil
Baisalov told poloff that they wanted airtime in the evening
to explain the tape. KTR has reportedly agreed to give the
opposition airtime from 1900 to 2100

President to Present Constitution Draft November 6
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12. (C) Presidential Deputy Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov
told the Ambassador November 3 that President Bakiyev would
present a new draft of a constitution to Parliament on
November 6. He said that opposition MPs had refused to
participate in a small working group to finalize the draft,
but the President was moving forward with the draft
nevertheless. Sadyrkulov said that the tape of the
opposition had been made on the evening of November 2, and he
had no doubts as to its authenticity. He also dismissed
Madumarov's contention that the tape indicated foreign
involvement in the protest. Sadyrkulov said he thought the
opposition would try to drag out the protest, but that people
were losing interest. He said that despite the fact that the
tape showed "huge provocation," the government was trying to
resolve the situation without "creating winners and losers."

Demonstration at Regional Offices
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13. (SBU) In the afternoon of November 3, approximately 80-90
demonstrators took over the administrative offices of
Alamudun Rayon, near Bishkek. The takeover was peaceful. As
of 1600, the demonstrators were talking with the Akim (local
administrator),and an Embassy patrol reported that there
were approximately 25 MVD militia on site, but the situation
was calm. As of 1700, we understand that the demonstrators
have been removed from the building without incident. We
also understand that there was a peaceful demonstration
involving approximately 200 protesters in front of the
administrative offices in Talas.

Situation at 1700, November 3
--------------


14. (SBU) As of 1700, the crowd was growing again on Ala-too
Square, with approximately 2000 demonstrators present. In
addition, there was an increased number of militia present,
and the National Guard had deployed around the White House.

Comment
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15. (C) The protest has remained peaceful, but the situation
remains unpredictable. Just as the protest appeared to be
slowing down, there was the demonstration in Talas, the
peaceful seizure of an administrative building near Bishkek,
and the crowd in Ala-too Square appears to be growing
slightly. We expect that a small number of protesters will
maintain their vigil in Ala-too Square overnight. The
politics of the situation are heating up, with the latest
charges that the opposition was planning to seize power. We
have our doubts about the tape, but whether or not it is
authentic, it has forced opposition leaders to divide their
energies between defending themselves from the charges and
pushing forward with the protest. The tape may also serve to
divide the opposition. Edil Baisalov told us that some
elements in the opposition did, in fact, envision occupying
government buildings, while the majority of them were
genuinely seeking reform. He claimed that MP Kubatbek
Baibolov had met with the President earlier in the day to
assure him that the majority of the opposition wanted to work
toward compromise.

YOVANOVITCH