BAKIYEV AND KYRGYZ OPPOSITION CLOSER TO AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001548

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: BAKIYEV AND KYRGYZ OPPOSITION CLOSER TO AGREEMENT
ON CONSTITUTION; NOVEMBER 2 PROTEST STILL ON

REF: A. BISHKEK 1537

B. BISHKEK 1532

C. BISHKEK 1506

D. BISHKEK 1423

E. STATE 180495

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to opposition leaders, in a series
of meetings October 31 to discuss the opposition's demands
for reforms, President Bakiyev and the Kyrgyz opposition
reached provisional agreement on the broad form of a new
constitution, and President Bakiyev may present a draft along
the agreed lines to the Parliament on November 2. While
constitutional reform was at the center of the opposition's
demands, several unresolved issues remain. It appears,
however, that there was agreement regarding KTR becoming a
public television station. The opposition intends to go
ahead with its planned mass demonstration on November 2, in
part to ensure that Bakiyev keeps his word on the agreement.
If this apparent compromise on the constitution holds, it is
more likely that the demonstration will be shorter in
duration -- not the "indefinite protest" the opposition had
promised.


2. (C) However, we caution that the opposition's
interpretation of the agreements concluded may vary from the
that of the Presidential Administration; moreover, we have
seen before that President Bakiyev can change his mind on a
dime and for no apparent reason. We remain concerned about
the protest and continue to stress to all sides the need to
act lawfully, constitutionally, and non-violently (per Ref
E). END SUMMARY.

Agreement on Constitution
--------------


3. (SBU) Meetings at the Parliament, at the Presidential
Administration, and among the opposition are continuing on
the eve of the opposition's planned demonstration November 2.
Direct discussions between the government and opposition
began in earnest on October 31, with meetings going on well
into the night. President Bakiyev, along with Prime Minister
Kulov, State Secretary Madumarov, and Chief of Staff
Abdyldayev met twice with opposition leaders MPs Beknazarov,
Sariyev, Tekebayev, Eshimkanov, Sherniyazov, and former Trade
Minister Atambayev. Between those two meetings there was a
three-on-three "experts" meeting to discuss possible
compromise on a draft constitution. While no overall
agreement was reached, the President and the opposition did
agree -- at least according to the opposition -- on the
outline of a new constitution and there was progress on
reviving the public television law earlier vetoed by Bakiyev.



4. (C) On November 1, the Ambassador met separately with
opposition leaders and "For Reforms" "experts" MP Azimbek
Beknazarov, MP Omurbek Tekebayev, and MP Temir Sariyev to get
their assessment of the status of the discussions with the
government. Beknazarov indicated that they had reached
agreement with Bakiyev over the form of a new constitution,
and that the November 2 protest could turn into a
celebration. Sariyev was much less optimistic about the
agreement, saying he was not sure that Bakiyev would
implement the agreement. Tekebayev was somewhere in the
middle, saying that the large crowd of protesters would
guarantee that Bakiyev kept his word. In any event, they
said that the November 2 protest would take place as planned,
partly to ensure the President keeps his promise.

Beknazarov: Over the Moon
--------------


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5. (C) Beknazarov told the Ambassador that he, Tekebayev, and
Sariyev worked all night with Abdyldayev, Madumarov and Legal
Policy Department Head Zulpiyev to hammer out a new draft of
the constitution, one based on the mixed form of government
draft that Beknazarov's working group wrote earlier in the
year. In this version, the President remains Head of State,
while the party that holds a plurality of seats in Parliament
appoints the Prime Minister and forms the government.
Beknazarov was confident that the new draft would provide
balance within the government.


6. (C) He said Parliament would approve the draft
constitution and the President would sign it on the morning
of November 2. At that point, said Beknazarov, the
demonstration would turn into a mass celebration. He added
that the President had also agreed to withdraw his veto of
the public television law and allow state-owned KTR to become
independent. Such developments, gleefully confided
Beknazarov, indicated a positive step toward full compromise
between the opposition and the President. He had no doubt
that Bakiyev would sign the new draft on November 2, thereby
setting off a chain of events that would lead to the
immediate creation of a new government -- although he
admitted that the President had not agreed to immediate
implementation.

Tekebayev: Cautiously Optimistic
--------------


7. (C) Tekebayev told the Ambassador that the President had
agreed to a mixed system of government as Beknazarov
described above, but said there was no draft yet and the
future draft would be based on the June 2005 version. He
said the President wants to retain his full powers, and so
would probably not agree to the immediate formation of a new
government. While they had not reached a "full agreement"
with the President, and if Bakiyev wished to stay in office,
it would be in his best interest to adopt the new
constitution -- especially with thousands of angry protestors
surrounding the White House. Tekebayev said the
demonstrators would act as a "guarantor" to ensure that
President Bakiyev kept his word. The Ambassador, once again,
stressed the importance of conducting the demonstration in a
peaceful, legal manner. With a small smile, Tekebayev, in
response, assured the Ambassador that control would be
established, unless the government uses force against the
protestors.

Sariyev: Less than Impressed
--------------


8. (C) Sariyev said that while an agreement had been reached
regarding the implementation of the new draft constitution,
the October 31 meetings had done little to address the other
demands of the opposition. He said that November 2 could
still be problematic, as a number of questions, including on
personnel, remained unanswered by President Bakiyev, and he
was not certain that the President would keep his promise to
allow the formation of a new government after signing the
constitution on November 2. He said that Parliament was
currently discussing what should take place at the November 2
session (i.e., should there be a vote on a new draft
constituion).


9. (C) Like Beknazarov and Tekebayev, Sariyev added that the
demonstration would take place, despite these new
developments, to ensure that the President realized the
seriousness of the situation. Sariyev promised that it would
be a peaceful rally and that the MVD and Procurator had
provided assurances that no aggression would be allowed -- on
either side.

Preparations for Rally Continue

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--------------


10. (SBU) Preparations for the November 2 rally are
continuing. Protest organizers have designated separate
rally points near the center of the city for different
parties and groups to meet, starting as early as 9:00 am near
the Parliament. From the rally points, the groups plan to
walk to the central Ala-too Square, where the protest would
begin at 2:00 pm.


11. (SBU) Several businesses have said that they will close
for the day, and some stores are adding additional security
to protect against looting or property damage. According to
press reports, 6500 police will be deployed for the rally,
but dispersed around the city to protect property. Deputy
Interior Minister Suvanaliyev said that the police would
carry only rubber bullets. The National Guard will be
deployed to protect government buildings. Kadyr Malikov, a
leading Islamic scholar and frequent critic of the Muftiyat
and official clergy, issued a fatwa urging Muslims to refrain
from looting, theft, and illegal occupation of property.

Embassy Coverage of Events
--------------


12. (C) The Embassy will deploy roving teams in Embassy
vehicles to observe conditions around the city on November 2.
In addition, the Embassy has two fixed observation posts in
offices with views of Ala-too Square and the White House.
There will be a command center set up at the Embassy with
dedicated phone lines to keep in regular contact with each
team and to maintain event logs.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Sariyev and Beknazarov claimed that the President was
a broken man, who appeared to have lost his confidence, his
public bluster and was ready to compromise. Beknazarov said
the President complained that the opposition was leaving him
"with nothing." It appears the President may be starting to
take the opposition seriously and could be making some
compromises -- although Tekebayev bluntly said, "We do not
trust him," and will insist the President sign the new
Constitution and the law on the media before the
demonstrators go home. The question is whether the agreement
that is finally hammered out will be enough for the
emboldened opposition and whether the opposition has the
political strength to intimidate the President into further
compromises from the street. There is also the question of
whether the President, a mercurial man, will stick to the
agreements the opposition thinks he has made. (We have been
unable to talk to sources in the Presidential Administration
with knowledge of the negotiations.)


14. (C) The opposition seems to be ready to stay the course
(or at least the weekend),and if it is not successful now,
come back in the spring for more demonstrations. The weather
could be helpful as the forecast for November 2 calls for
clearing skies in the afternoon, and dry and warm for the
next several days.


15. (C) As the November 2 demonstration draws near and there
is no compromise, there is more anxiety among our
interlocutors. However, the fact that the two sides are now
talking is a good sign. We remain, however, concerned that
thousands of people in the same place could create an
unpredictable situation that neither the opposition nor the
Government will manage well.

YOVANOVITCH