STALLED CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AT CORE OF KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: STALLED CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AT CORE OF KYRGYZ
POLITICAL DISPUTE

REF: A. BISHKEK 1316

B. BISHKEK 747

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Stalled constitutional reform is at the
center of the bitter dispute between President Bakiyev, the
Parliament, civil society, and the political opposition. The
constitutional reform process began in April 2005, when the
interim government and its supporters agreed that a new
constitution was needed to limit the authoritarian powers of
the executive branch. President Bakiyev campaigned on a
pledge to adopt such a new constitution.


2. (C) Since that time there have been numerous drafts
proposed, but no clear process established for consideration
of the drafts or adoption of a new constitution. For over a
year, the opposition has demanded that the government
expedite constitutional reform. The President, for his part,
has vowed his commitment to carry it out, but with each
passing month his pledges have deviated further from his
original expressed intentions. Most recently, he has
castigated the Parliament for not holding hearings on
constitutional reform (hearing are scheduled to start
November 1),while simultaneously announcing that he would
introduce his own draft on November 20.


3. (C) The opposition now has put its demand to the President
in the form of an ultimatum: either carry out constitutional
reform or resign. The opposition plans to stage a mass
protest on November 2 that will continue until the government
either meets the opposition's demands for immediate
constitutional (and other) reform or steps down. With this
planned protest looming, government and opposition leaders
have been meeting in extended sessions on October 31 and
November 1 to try to reach an acceptable compromise. END
SUMMARY.

A Long History and Many Drafts
--------------


4. (C) Following the ouster of President Akayev in March 2005
during the "Tulip Revolution," there was a general consensus
on the need to change the constitution to limit the powers of
the president and the executive branch. President Bakiyev
campaigned on a promise that he would propose a new
constitution that included better checks and balances among
the branches of government. A Constitutional Council, which
included members from the government, parliament, and civil
society, was established in April 2005, and it prepared a
draft in June 2005 that strengthened the role of the
parliament and envisaged a mixed presidential-parliamentary
form of government. Following his election in July 2005,
Bakiyev, apparently dissatisfied with the initial draft,
increased the size of the Council from 114 to 291 members,
adding a number of political supporters to the process.


5. (C) In October 2005, the President issued a draft which
was so heavily criticized that he withdrew it in December.
In January 2006, the President issued a decree stating there
would be a referendum in the latter part of the year to
determine the form of government (presidential,
parliamentary, or mixed). In February 2006, the President
established a small constitutional working group headed by
opposition MP Azimbek Beknazarov, and in August the working
group proposed three drafts for a presidential, parliamentary
and mixed form of government.


6. (C) In September, the Council of Europe's Venice
Commission reviewed the three drafts, and while it found some
improvements with respect to human rights and the
independence of judiciary, it concluded that none of the
three was satisfactory in terms of balance and separation of

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powers. President Bakiyev, nevertheless, informally
forwarded the three drafts to Parliament for consideration.
(Note: Technically, the drafts were sent to Parliament
through informal channels, from the President's chief of
staff to the head of the parliamentary committee, not from
the President to the Speaker. End Note.)


7. (C) Many in the political opposition and in civil society,
however, believe that sending the current unsatisfactory
drafts to Parliament was a stalling tactic, as Parliament
lacks the authority to change drafts submitted by the
President. Bakiyev, they say, did not want to go forward
with any process that could end up weakening his authority,
and he wanted Parliament to do the "dirty job" of rejecting
the product of Beknazarov's working group. Bakiyev, for his
part, has on a number of occasions cautioned against "hasty"
constitutional reform and even suggested to keep the current
constitution with its strong presidential authorities, which
he believes suits Kyrgyzstan's present needs. In his view,
the parliamentary form of government is unacceptable at this
time because political parties are still immature.


8. (C) In addition to the drafts produced by the working
group and the Constitutional Council, there have been
numerous other drafts put forward. Among about a dozen other
drafts are proposals by Prime Minister Kulov, Supreme Court
Chair Osmonov, MP Baibolov, MP Alisher Sabirov, and the Civic
Society against Corruption NGO. Kulov's draft, which
envisages a mixed presidential-parliamentary form of
government, is based on the current constitution, amended to
enhance the powers of the parliament and to delineate clearly
the responsibilities of the president and the prime minister.
According to the Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on
State Structures, Law and Constitution Masaliyev, his
committee will review Kulov's draft proposal, as well as the
three Beknazarov drafts beginning November 1.

No Clear Procedure or Timetable
--------------


9. (C) While numerous drafts have been produced, there has
never been a clear process set out to consider the drafts or
adopt a new constitution. In September, Bakiyev laid out the
following possible scenario: in September-October,
Parliament would review the proposed three drafts; in
October-November, the drafts would be discussed by the
public; by the end of the year, the public would vote on the
form of government by referendum; following the referendum,
the draft that received the most support would then be
finalized and offered for another referendum. Early in
October, MPs Temir Sariyev and Alisher Sabirov expressed
concerns about the President's threat to include a question
about disbanding Parliament on the referendum ballot paper.
And MP Beknazarov said he suspected that the President had a
draft "up his sleeve" that he would present by the end of the
year.

Delay Emboldens Opposition
--------------


10. (C) The combination of a desire for power and property,
procrastination on reform, and the "matryoshka" scandal
(which has left opposition leaders believing the government
could take extreme steps against them -- Ref A) has resulted
in the opposition's demands becoming more and more radical.
Since September, the opposition has been calling for the
resignation of the government and formation of a coalition
government, which would proceed with prompt constitutional
changes. On October 12, civil society leaders and the "For
Reforms" opposition movement held a Civic Forum to discuss
the current political situation. Government representatives
at the Forum, including PM Kulov, called for further dialogue
on the most important issues, including constitutional

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reform. The opposition, however, rejected such an approach,
and demanded that Bakiyev submit the June 2005 draft
constitution to the Parliament by October 23, or it would
proceed with its mass demonstration on November 2 and
continue until the government resigned.

President Blames Parliament
--------------


11. (C) On October 25 in Jalalabad, the President said that
if he could not come to agreement with the Parliament on this
issue, he would go directly to the people in a referendum on
his own draft. On October 27, Bakiyev announced that
Parliament should proceed with hearings on the current
drafts, but he would present his own proposal by November 20.
In Parliament October 30, after blaming the Parliament for
the delay in constitutional reform, Bakiyev said he
deliberately prolonged the process so that everyone in the
country would be aware of the issue and the details of the
debate.

Next Days Crucial
--------------


11. (C) Public debate over constitutional reform has focused
on the apparent form of a new government, whether
presidential, parliamentary, or mixed, rather than on the
substance of checks and balances and limits on each branch,s
authority. Bakiyev has made clear that he favors strong
executive authority, while others are backing greater
authority for the Parliament. Delays in the process have
added to the bitterness of the dispute, rather than creating
space for constructive debate. With the November 2 protest
looming, and urgent talks between the President and the
opposition going on, the next few days could be crucial to
the substance and direction of the constitutional reform
process.
YOVANOVITCH