SOUTHERNERS UNLIKELY TO PARTICIPATE IN BISHKEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001535

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PHUM KG
SUBJECT: SOUTHERNERS UNLIKELY TO PARTICIPATE IN BISHKEK
DEMONSTRATION NOVEMBER 2

BISHKEK 00001535 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARIE L. YOVANOVITCH, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: While traveling in Osh October 26-28 for a
USAID-supported agricultural exposition and PAS-funded
American rodeo event, the Ambassador met with religious
leaders, political activists and university students about
the overall situation in southern Kyrgyzstan and their
opinions about the upcoming political rally to be held in
Bishkek. On the subject of November 2, most believed that
southerners would not turn out for the demonstration; some
feared that the event in Bishkek would spiral out of control,
resulting in violence similar to the events of March 2005.
The population in the south seems to be less politically
charged and cautiously awaits the outcome of the planned
activities in the north. In all meetings including an
interview with Osh TV, Ambassador took the opportunity to
state the U.S. position that the November 2 demonstration is
a Kyrgyz matter, but that both sides should operate in a
peaceful, legal and constitutional manner. END SUMMARY.

UZBEK LEADER URGES U.S. MEDIATION
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2. (C) During lunch with the Ambassador, Chairman of the
International Center of Islamic Cooperation Sadykjan Kamalov
expressed his concern regarding the increase in violent
attacks on politicians and, now, religious leaders since
President Bakiyev assumed power. When asked about the case
of his slain brother, Muhammadrafiq Kamalov, he stated that
the authorities have yet to share any new information but he
is patiently waiting for results from their investigation.
He also claimed that certain individuals wanted him to blame
the Bakiyev regime publicly for his brother's death.
However, he claimed to have refused to react to such
provocation. Kamalov shared his fears, together with those
of the wider community, that the tensions between the
opposition and the president will lead to further violence,
possibly during the upcoming rally in Bishkek on November 2.


3. (C) Kamalov also felt that if the tense situation were to
result in violence, then accusations that the USG financed
the upheaval would soon follow, especially if the USG remains
silent and refuses to choose sides. Convinced that both
sides of the political struggle respected the views of the
U.S. Embassy and wanted U.S. mediation, Kamalov suggested
that the Ambassador preside over a dialogue between the
opposition and Bakiyev. Kamalov assured the Ambassador that
the people of Kyrgyzstan need the USG's presence as a balance
to Russian intervention. Ambassador told Kamalov that she
always appreciates his advice, but that she does not see an
opening for U.S. mediation nor has either side invited her to
do so. In this meeting and all her other meetings, she noted
the U.S. position that the demonstration is an internal
matter, but it is important for all sides to act peacefully,
legally and in accordance with the Kyrgyz constitution.

OSH STUDENTS NOT PLANNING TO ATTEND DEMONSTRATION
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4. (C) Students of Osh State University met with the
Ambassador and shared their knowledge of the upcoming
November 2 rally but expressed mixed feelings about
participating, and clearly few, if any, were planning to
attend. Students claimed that opposition party members
requested that they come to local rallies to show support.
Some students argued that these events were important to
guard the balance between political groups. Others felt that
such rallies were obstacles to the country's development and
would lead to further instability. Overall, the youths were
not enthusiastic about the political wrangling in Bishkek,
but claimed to be watching closely for concrete action as a
result of the event.

POLITICAL PARTIES WON'T TURN OUT EITHER

BISHKEK 00001535 002.2 OF 002


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5. (C) The Ambassador chaired a roundtable discussion with
Osh representatives of various political parties, both
pro-government and opposition. The discussion quickly turned
into a show of both sides bickering about the roles of each
other's parties and their effectiveness in shaping the
fledgling democratic government. When asked about the
upcoming rally in Bishkek, many agreed that as much as
two-thirds of the population in the south may be unaware of
such political activity. Those aware of the situation, one
claimed, fear a sequel to last year's violent uprising.
Opposition party members claim that most do not have access
to independent media or the Internet, making it difficult to
understand both sides of the argument. Another claimed that
the population is tired of politics and simply wanted peace;
he pointed out that Bakiyev has strong support in the south
and that he is winning the media war, utilizing
government-owned newspapers and television stations to
promote his position. Some pro-government party members
believed that a few political groups desire destabilization
in order to take advantage of a chaotic situation and seize
power. The group concluded that few from the south would
participate in the November 2 demonstration and that there
would not even be a parallel event in Osh, as there was
during the spring demonstrations.

COMMENT
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6. (C) The mood of the population in Osh is clearly less
politically charged than that of their neighbors to the
north, and it still appears to be a Bakiyev stronghold. Osh
Governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev, formerly of the opposition
until his May appointment, told the Ambassador that if 75% of
the south previously supported the President, now 90%
supports southerner Bakiyev. He stated that southerners see
the attempts to pressure Bakiyev to resign as northerners
unwilling to allow Bakiyev to finish his term, unlike
northerner Akayev who enjoyed fifteen years in power. For
those tracking the upcoming rally, concern about possible
violence outweighs any excitement about possible political
change. The population in the south seems to have adopted a
cautious "wait and see" approach to the planned rally,
although few will participate from Osh and most interlocutors
indicated they expected the south to participate in force
only from the home provinces of Deputies and opposition
leaders Beknazarov and Tekebayev. END COMMENT.

YOVANOVITCH