DAS FEIGENBAUM DISCUSSES ISSUES OF STABILITY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 001518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: DAS FEIGENBAUM DISCUSSES ISSUES OF STABILITY IN
SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

REF: A. BISHKEK 1506

B. BISHKEK 1333

BISHKEK 00001518 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 19 and 20, SCA Deputy Assistant
Secretary Evan Feigenbaum, together with Ambassador

SIPDIS
Yovanovitch, traveled to southern Kyrgyzstan to discuss
issues of social and political stability, as well as the
impending demonstration on November 2, with local government
officials, international organization representatives, and
NGOs. During the two-day trip to Osh, Jalalabad, and
Karasuu, Embassy contacts expressed hope that Kyrgyzstan
would be able to resolve its political and economic debates
peacefully, but cautioned that poverty, a porous border with
Uzbekistan, rising religious extremism, the lack of a truly
independent media, and a distancing from the north were all
issues that remained a concern for the country as a whole.
Despite such concerns, most seemed optimistic about
Kyrgyzstan's future and believed that nothing significant
would happen during the planned demonstration on November 2.
Several warned that relations with the government could
worsen, however, if the Bakiyev administration continues to
crack down on alleged extremists in the south and interferes
in the activities of NGOs throughout the country. END
SUMMARY.

BORDER, SOCIAL PROGRAMS MORE IMPORTANT THAN NEW REVOLUTION
-------------- ---


2. (C) In Jalalabad, Governor Iskender Aidaraliyev told DAS
Feigenbaum and the Ambassador that although the south was
"ripe for foreign investment" due to the "calm social and
political climate," he was concerned about the long border
Kyrgyzstan shares with Uzbekistan. Recognizing that U.S.
border assistance programs have been active in Osh,
Aidaraliyev said that more could be done in other oblasts,
including Jalalabad, to secure the porous Kyrgyz-Uzbek
border. (Note: After visiting the Dostuk border post in Osh
(septel),DAS Feigenbaum was informed that the International
Organization for Migration (IOM) plans to renovate, using
U.S. assistance funds, at least one post in Jalalabad. End
note.)


3. (C) When asked about possible unrest in the south
connected to the opposition's November 2 rally in Bishkek
(ref A),Aidaraliyev said that he was certain the opposition
would not be able to garner the country-wide support needed
to achieve their "revolutionary" aims. Aidaraliyev said that
southerners were geared more towards effecting change from
within the current system, rather than through consecutive
revolutions. Citing the limited support the opposition
received during the September 17 Kurultai (ref B),
Aidaraliyev predicted that November 2 would also see equally
limited participation by southern residents. Governor
Aidaraliyev added that successive revolutions would only
serve to destabilize the country. Aidaraliyev said he had
been able to stay in office following the March 2005 events
due to strong constituent support, and similarly the
President should be able to stay in office unless he is voted
out democratically after his five-year term. Aidaraliyev
reasoned that forcibly removing him from the White House
would damage not only Kyrgyzstan's development and stability,
but also its image internationally.


4. (C) Separately, Osh Deputy Governor Kushbak Tezekbayev
concurred with Aidaraliyev's analysis that nothing concrete
would happen on November 2. He believed that the opposition
seeks to divide the south from the north. Despite the fact
that "For Reforms" (Za Reformi) co-Chair Omurbek Tekebayev is
originally from the south, living in Bishkek for over twenty
years has limited his credibility in the eyes of many
southerners, according to Tezekbayev. Tezekbayev also

BISHKEK 00001518 002.2 OF 004


speculated that the Kyrgyz people are "tired" of politics and
would rather focus on other, more pressing, issues such as
renovating schools and obtaining textbooks for each student.


5. (C) When asked about U.S.-Kyrgyz bilateral relations, as
viewed from Osh and the south, as well as Kyrgyzstan's
relations with its neighbors, Tezekbayev said that too much
foreign investment had been concentrated in the north, and
more should be done to improve the economic condition of
southern Kyrgyzstan. As an example, Tezekbayev noted that
trade relations with China have increased significantly, with
China donating four hundred tractors in the past six months,
in addition to building factories and supplying Kyrgyz
markets with fruits and vegetables. Despite the praise given
to China and Tezekbayev's intention to go to Beijing by the
end of October to sign a trade agreement linking Osh with
Urumchi and Kashgar, the Deputy Governor insisted, that China
continues to sell inferior products to Kyrgyzstan, with the
"good stuff" going to the United States.


6. (C) As for bilateral relations with the U.S., Tezekbayev
supported the Manas Airbase and its contributions to the
security of Kyrgyzstan and the region, but thought that
Kyrgyzstan's relations with Russia should be strengthened as
well. Claiming that Kyrgyzstan is the only democracy in the
region, Tezekbayev used the fact that the current Governor of
Osh, Jantoro Satybaldiyev, was a former opposition leader as
an example of the many liberties that exist in Kyrgyzstan.
As a comparison to other Central Asian states, Tezekbayev
alluded to Uzbekistan's "ungrateful" attitude towards the
U.S., by stating that "if it wasn't for U.S. assistance in
Uzbekistan after 9/11, there would be no Uzbekistan today."
DAS Feigenbaum noted that unlike our comparatively consistent
relationship with Kyrgyzstan, U.S. relations with Tashkent
have been characterized by sharp swings up and down.

ISLAMIC LEADERS CONTENT, FOR NOW
--------------


7. (C) While pleased that the relationship between the
Islamic community and the state seems comparatively smooth
and stable, Suyun Kaary, Kazy of Osh Oblast, cautioned that
growing Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) adherence could damage relations
as the possibility of heavy-handed government crackdowns
against alleged HT members continues. Citing the inadequate
education of Imams and their constituents on how best to
dissuade potential HT and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU) adherents, Kaary said that religious leaders and
followers alike would benefit from more exchanges with the
West, as well as an increase in Kyrgyz student enrollments at
Islamic universities abroad. Kaary estimated that at least
1000 Kyrgyz students are studying in Egypt, but could not
speculate on the number of students attending religious
schools in Pakistan.


8. (C) Kaary cited economic hardships as a source of
discontent for many in the south. Because of those
hardships, said Kaary, there are those who believe they may
be able to benefit from the foreign assistance that is
perceived to be funding extremist groups within Kyrgyzstan.
When asked if Kaary knew where the money was coming from, he
simply shrugged his shoulders and replied, in Arabic, that
only God knew. Despite the possibility that extremist views
may be filtering into Kyrgyzstan from abroad, Kaary said that
Kyrgyzstan must manage its problems with HT, IMU and
non-Muslim extremist religious groups without closing its
borders. Rather, noted Kaary, Kyrgyzstan should deal with
extremists through political means, by the use of dialogues
and face-to-face interaction. Kaary said that the late Imam
Muhammadrafik Kamalov, killed on August 6 possibly because of
his alleged ties to HT, had been respected by religious and
community leaders throughout the region because of his
commitment to dialogue. He had known Kamalov and respected

BISHKEK 00001518 003.2 OF 004


him as a person, but did not consider it appropriate to
comment on political allegations against the dead. In light
of these concerns, Kaary cautioned that there were issues in
the south that deserved people's attention. Kaary expressed
his gratitude to DAS Feigenbaum and the Ambassador for
visiting the south, inviting a large number of southerners to
participate in International Visitor (IV) programs, and hoped
that such exchanges would continue and expand.

IOs, NGOs: WORKING PRODUCTIVELY, FOR NOW
--------------


9. (C) During an informal dinner with UNHCR and OSCE
representatives, discussion turned to Kyrgyzstan's failing
refugee regime and the Kyrgyz Government's (GOKG) possible
move to restrict the activities of international
organizations and NGOs working in Kyrgyzstan, to include a
possible reevaluation of OSCE's mandate. As the Head of
UNHCR's Field Office Mulusew Mamo explained, the GOKG has
worked cooperatively to help resettle hundreds of Uzbek
asylum seekers to third countries, but has not been willing
to take additional steps to grant refugee status to Uzbek
nationals. Mamo added that resettlement is usually a last
resort for UNHCR and, therefore, hoped that their work could
be reoriented to concentrate more upon refugee determination
and assistance within Kyrgyzstan. Immediately granting
asylum-seeker status in order to initiate the resettlement
process is not a system, according to Mamo, that UNHCR
believes would be beneficial for the long-term stability of
Kyrgyzstan's refugee regime. Extraditions and disappearances
of Uzbek nationals seeking refuge in Kyrgyzstan is also a
concern, said Mamo, in that such events call into question
the safety of those asylum-seekers remaining in Kyrgyzstan.
With no concrete assurances provided by the GOKG, Mamo
speculated that the Kyrgyz would continue working with the
Uzbek security services to set an example to other Uzbek
citizens, especially civil society activists, thinking about
crossing the border into Kyrgyzstan.


10. (C) OSCE representatives Jerome Bouyjou and Amanda Wooden
expressed concern regarding the GOKG's heavy-handed
crackdowns against alleged religious extremists in the south
and argued that the national government may be trying to
increase its control in southern Kyrgyzstan. Bouyjou said
that desire for control might extend to OSCE's activities.
Bouyjou noted that in a meeting in Osh earlier in the day, FM
Jekshenkulov had asked pointed questions about the OSCE's
overall mandate in the Kyrgyz Republic, suggesting that the
Foreign Ministry may be trying to sideline the activities of
international organizations and NGOs working throughout
Kyrgyzstan. Bouyjou and Wooden also said that the GOKG had
been contacting local NGOs asking about their sources of
funding as well as the nature of their activities.


11. (C) In a separate lunch meeting, Mercy Corps
representatives said they had a cooperative working
relationship with local government and that local inhabitants
appreciated the assistance provided by international
organizations and NGOs. Mercy Corps representative, Claire
Sneed, explained that the group has worked with local
government officials on a variety of issues, including rule
of law in business transactions, land allocation, corruption,
and access to water for farmers. Given the cooperative
manner in which southerners have worked with NGOs and local
government offices, the Mercy Corps representatives were
surprised at reports that people in Bishkek were discussing
the possibility of another revolution. Sneed said that
southerners generally felt no connection to President Bakiyev
despite his southern roots, but they were tired of the
political upheavals in the north. According to Sneed and her
colleagues, southerners preferred to concentrate more on
other issues, such as education and the increased use of
narcotics by school-aged children.

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SOUTHERN VOICES MUTED BY LACK OF INDEPENDENT MEDIA
-------------- --------------


12. (C) Maksuda Aitiyeva, Director of the Osh Media Resource
Center, together with five IV Alumni journalists, noted that
people in the south depended on GOKG and NGO assistance to
improve the situation. Aitiyeva said that a lack of funds
limited local media's voice, and dependence on government
subsidies called into question media independence. With an
inadequate amount of revenue generated through
advertisements, and stiff commercial competition from Russian
media outlets, the condition of mass media in Kyrgyzstan
could worsen, said Aitiyeva, in the years to come --
especially if the youth remain uninterested in journalism,
due to lack of professional training and insufficient wages.
Representatives from online news site Ferghana.ru, who had
invited themselves to the meeting, added that one of the only
ways Kyrgyz media could genuinely stay independent would be
to publish their reports on the web. Generally cheaper and
more flexible, online news sites could be a trend that others
should follow, according to Alisher Saipov, local Chief
Editor of Ferghana.ru and Voice of America (VOA) stringer.
This will especially be the case, said Saipov, as more people
gain access to the Internet either at home or by visiting the
growing number of Internet cafes spread out across the
country.

COMMENT: ALL IS RELATIVELY CALM, FOR NOW
--------------


13. (C) By and large, interlocutors during this visit to the
south were a lot less alarmist about the political situation
in Kyrgyzstan than those in the north. Recognizing that more
could be done to improve Kyrgyzstan's economic and political
standing, many, nevertheless, believed that cooperative
solutions could be realized with the current government.
Despite worrying signs that the government may be trying to
meddle in the affairs of international organizations and NGOs
operating throughout the country, there was a sense of calm,
confidence, and optimism felt and expressed within each of
the meetings in Osh, Jalalabad, and Karasuu. In the run up
to the planned opposition demonstrations in Bishkek on
November 2, Embassy will watch closely to see if that quiet
confidence seeps northward, or if the opposition will manage
to generate more support for their cause in Kyrgyzstan's
southern regions. END COMMENT.


14. (U) DAS Feigenbaum has cleared this cable.
YOVANOVITCH