Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BERLIN3395
2006-11-30 09:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

CONVENTION STRENGTHENS MERKEL IN PARTY, GOVERNMENT

Tags:  PGOV PREL GM 
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VZCZCXRO2332
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRL #3395/01 3340901
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 300901Z NOV 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6230
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 003395 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: CONVENTION STRENGTHENS MERKEL IN PARTY, GOVERNMENT

REF: BERLIN 3333

Classified By: DCM John Koenig. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 003395

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: CONVENTION STRENGTHENS MERKEL IN PARTY, GOVERNMENT

REF: BERLIN 3333

Classified By: DCM John Koenig. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary. Angela Merkel's re-election as party leader
with an unexpected 93 percent of the vote, together with poor
performances by her principal rivals and good results for her
proteges, has helped to consolidate her leadership of the
CDU. Her strong showing may also boost her position
vis-a-vis her Social Democratic coalition partners. Contacts
at the convention attributed the outcome to a variety of
factors, with party loyalty to the Chancellor (as opposed to
personal loyalty to Merkel) and the divisive performance by
North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Minister-President Ruettgers as
perhaps the most important. The sharp debate over the
party's social profile likely also increased support for
Merkel's call for cooperation and reconciliation between the
party's social and pro-market wings. The rhetoric of major
speakers, including Merkel, was strongly against Turkish
membership in the EU and in favor of extending the lives of
Germany's nuclear power plants - two issues where the CDU/CSU
and SPD take opposite views. End Summary.

Election of the Party Leadership
--------------


2. (U) The mai purpose of the CDU National Convention, held
inDresden Nov. 27-28, was to (re-)elect the party
eadership. Reftel reports the concerns which had ed some
to suspect the Chancellor might be re-elcted as party
leader, but with numbers lower thanthe 88 percent received
in 2004. To respond to these concerns, contacts had
predicted Merkel would deliver a partisan speech to reassure
the voters that the CDU's views were being and would be
prominent in government policy. While she made this point,
her hour-long speech was in fact largely moderate in tone --
more descriptive than prescriptive and taking only a few
swipes at the SPD. She did, however, extensively praise CDU
Ministers-President, including Ruettgers, at the opening of
her speech. She outlined her government's success, which
included improved relations with the U.S. based on mutual
trust and a more forthright human rights policy. She dwelt
at length on the economic challenges of globalization. Her
real message came at the end of her speech: Merkel welcomed

and endorsed proposals on social and economic policy from
both wings of the party; she praised the contributions of
both wings to maintaining both freedom and justice as core
principles of he CDU, but urged both sides to work
cooperatively. Though many of our contacts thought the
speech was lackluster, at its conclusion she received an
extended standing ovation.


3. (U) NRW M-P Ruettgers followed Merkel with a speech that
consisted largely of justifying his call for more emphasis on
social welfare in party policy. This opened an extended
debate on the issue. In the end, delegates followed
Chancellor Merkel's advice and approved two rather
contradictory resolutions on the matter by wide margins.
Following the debate the serious business of elections began.
Merkel was returned to office with an unexpected 93 percent
of the vote. General Secretary Pofalla, who delivered a very
dull speech and had been fingered as a potential scapegoat
for dissatisfaction with Merkel, received an equally
unexpected 82 percent - no triumph but not low enough to be
considered a punishment either. The seal on Merkel's success
came with the election of the four deputy chairmen: Merkel
protege and Education Minister Annette Schavan led the
polling with 78 percent; M-Ps Koch and Wulff trailed with 68
and 67 percent respectively, and Ruettgers (predicted
beforehand to do badly) drew only 58 percent support.


4. (U) Delegates and party leaders offered multiple reasons
for the unexpectedly good outcome for Merkel: Loyalty to a
CDU Chancellor was a leading factor - the delegates
recognized they could not weaken the Chancellor or the CDU in
government. Unhappiness with the divisive criticism of
Merkel and government policy from the M-Ps, notably
Ruettgers, and support for Merkel's call for cooperation not
only boosted Merkel, but also was the leading reason for the
poor showings by the Ministers-President. We would also not
discount the impact of the positives in Merkel's speech - the
achievements of the government and the positive economic news
in recent months.

Other Issues
--------------


5. (U) In addition to the elections and the debate on the
party's social orientation, the convention had just two bits
of substantive business to accomplish. By an overwhelming
majority the party adopted a resolution on foreign policy
that (possibly excepting Croatia) called for a halt to

BERLIN 00003395 002 OF 002


further EU expansion until the EU constitution is completed
and renewed the offer of a "privileged partnership" with
Turkey. The convention also adopted a resolution on
education that shifted the party's policy on early childhood
care away from direct state support for families toward more
support for early childhood education.


6. (U) Turkey's relationship to the EU and integration of
(mainly Turkish) immigrants into German society were
important rhetorical themes for all the leading speakers. In
his populist and energetic address to the convention,
Bavarian M-P and CSU leader Edmund Stoiber drew great
applause with lines such as "we do not want the churches in
our land to be ever fewer and in their place the mosques to
be ever more" and "The cross belongs in German schools,
parliaments, and courtrooms." Another frequent theme that
caught fire with the delegates (and was the single largest
applause line in Merkel's speech) was the call for extending
the lives of Germany's nuclear power plants. CDU Bundestag
caucus leader Kauder used the issue against the Greens and,
to a degree, the SPD when he said "We cannot afford to
renounce nuclear power. Even the dreamers, who want to
convert our entire land into a wind farm, will one day see
this."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Comment: Merkel's success in Dresden exceeded most
predictions; perhaps even her own expectations. She failed
to convert Ruettgers and many others with her message of
cooperation and reconciliation and therein could lie the
seeds of further discord. However, the signal from the party
rank-and-file was clear: M-Ps will not profit from creating
trouble for Merkel. One contact told us, that whether
intended or not, an important effect of the vote was to end
any pretensions Koch, Wulff or Ruettgers may have had to
being "crown prince" of the CDU. Only Ruettgers may fail to
have understood the message. In accepting his poor
re-election showing, he sourly announced his dissatisfaction
with the result but proclaimed his determination to continue
the fight in the party for social justice. With Dresden
behind her, though, Merkel will be in a much stronger
position to quash trouble from the party left. It is
reasonable to suppose that success in Dresden would
strengthen the Chancellor's hand in the Grand Coalition as
well. End Comment.


TIMKEN JR