Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BERLIN1781
2006-06-27 15:54:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

SPD CALLS FOR MORE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

Tags:  PARM KNNP IAEA NATO PGOV GM 
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BERLIN 001781 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR T, P, ISN, EUR/PRA, EUR/RPM, AND EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2026
TAGS: PARM KNNP IAEA NATO PGOV GM
SUBJECT: SPD CALLS FOR MORE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

REF: A. 05 BERLIN 1665

B. 05 BERLIN 475

Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Michael B. Martin; r
easons 1.4(b) and (d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BERLIN 001781

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR T, P, ISN, EUR/PRA, EUR/RPM, AND EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2026
TAGS: PARM KNNP IAEA NATO PGOV GM
SUBJECT: SPD CALLS FOR MORE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

REF: A. 05 BERLIN 1665

B. 05 BERLIN 475

Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Michael B. Martin; r
easons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: On June 26 the Social Democratic party (SPD)
held a conference under the rubric: "Peace through
Disarmament: International Law and Nuclear
Nonproliferation." FM Steinmeier (SPD) and IAEA DG ElBaradei
were the keynote speakers. During the conference, Steinmeier
and other SPD leaders emphasized that nuclear disarmament and
nonproliferation are key elements of the SPD's long-standing
"peace policy." SPD party Chairman Beck signaled that the
SPD intends to push to put nuclear disarmament on the agendas
of Germany's EU and G8 presidencies in 2007. Terming the May
2005 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) a "failure", Steinmeier
said that nuclear disarmament should be given a new impulse
based on the outcome of the 2000 NPT RevCon. He and
ElBaradei also called on the nuclear weapon states (NWS) to
further reduce their nuclear arsenals. ElBaradei asserted
that nuclear disarmament is the "Siamese twin of nuclear
nonproliferation", and criticized the fact that NWS and NATO
"till have doctrines of nuclear deterrence." Steimeier
reiterated his public calls on Iran to takea constructive
approach to the P5 Germany ofer. He also said that the
India-U.S. agreement n civil nuclear cooperation was the
"right way" o proceed, but added that "it would be a good
sinal" if India also would adhere to the Comprehensiv Test
Ban Treaty (CTBT) and a moratorium on the roduction of
weapons-grade fissile material. En Summary.

-------------- ---
SPD SETTING ITS SIGHTS ON EU AND G8 PRESIDENCIES
-------------- ---


2. (U) On June 26 the Social Democratic party (SPD) held a
conference under the rubric: "Peace through Disarmament:
International Law and Nuclear Nonproliferation." FM
Steinmeier (SPD) and IAEA DG ElBaradei were the keynote
speakers, following an introduction by SPD party Chairman

Kurt Beck. In introducing the subject, Beck emphasized that
nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation are key elements of
the SPD's long-standing "peace policy" of conflict prevention
and resolution. He signaled that the SPD intends to push to
put nuclear disarmament on the agendas of Germany's EU and G8
presidencies in 2007, saying that the upcoming,
partially-overlapping EU and G8 presidencies offer Germany a
rare opportunity in this regard. Separately, MP Rolf
Muetzenich, spokesman for disarmament and nonproliferation
affairs of the SPD caucus, announced that the SPD is working
on a catalog of proposals to be included in the SPD's next
party "basic program", which, according to Embassy contacts,
will be completed in draft form by the end of 2006 and
presented to the SPD party board in January 2007.

--------------
CALL FOR "REVIVAL" OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
--------------


3. (U) Beck said the SPD would hold firm to its appeal to the
nuclear weapons states to proceed with long-term, and
eventually total, nuclear disarmament. FM Steinmeier made
similar comments, assessing that the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty (NPT) is faced with "critical erosion", noting the
Conference on Disarmament (CD) had not produced any new
agreements in years, and citing Hans Blix's recent report to
the UN in saying, "it's time for a revival" of nuclear
disarmament. Terming the May 2005 NPT Review Conference
(RevCon) a "failure", Steinmeier presented the NPT as a
fundamental "deal" in which the nuclear weapons states (NWS)
agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for
non-NWS agreeing not to seek nuclear weapons. He said that

BERLIN 00001781 002 OF 005


nuclear disarmament should be given a new impulse, the basis
of which should be the outcome of the 2000 NPT RevCon.
Steinmeier also said that he would like to see the NWS
continue with the incremental disarmament of their strategic
and sub-strategic arsenals, noting in particular the United
States and Russia. He prefaced his comments by saying that,
in order to "get the disarmament effort back on track," one
needs to be prepared to think in the long-term, "over years."

-------------- --------------
ELBARADEI CRITICAL OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE DOCTRINE
-------------- --------------


4. (U) IAEA DG ElBaradei said that the abolition of nuclear
weapons was a goal of the NPT -- "not an immediate one, but a
progressive one." Citing the 1996 International Court of
Justice (ICJ) decision, he said that NWS are obligated not
just to negotiate on nuclear disarmament, but to reach
concrete results. ElBaradei asserted that nuclear
disarmament is the "Siamese twin of nuclear
nonproliferation." He criticized the fact that NWS and NATO
"still have doctrines of nuclear deterrence", arguing that it
is contradictory for some states to maintain that nuclear
weapons are essential to their security while telling other
states they should not have them. ElBaradei also claimed
that the United States and Russia are still targeting each
other in the same way they did as during the Cold War and
said that there still are 27,000 nuclear warheads in NWS
arsenals. He welcomed the Moscow Treaty as "good start", but
said that he would prefer to see the treaty subject to
verification, extended indefinitely, and applied to weapons
stockpiles. ElBaradei also called for all states to ratify
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),remarking that, to
bring the treaty into force, it would be necessary to
convince the U.S. Administration and Congress to alter U.S.
policy on the treaty.

-------------- --------------
STEINMEIER CALLS FOR CLOSING THE "HOLES" IN THE NPT
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Steinmeier predicted that, if the international
community fails successfully to respond to the nuclear
challenges posed by Iran and the DPRK, we will face a new
nuclear arms race in the Northeast Asia and the Middle East.
Moreover, the spread of nuclear weapons technology would mean
that terrorists would have easier access to nuclear weapons
and materials. Against this backdrop, Steinmeier argued for
the need to "close the holes" in the nuclear nonproliferation
regime, suggesting that the multilateralization of sensitive
parts of the nuclear fuel cycle could be one useful element.
He also proposed that nuclear nonproliferation verification
could be strengthened by a more routine use of challenge
inspections. Finally, Steinmeier said that all states should
implement nationally their multilateral commitments to
nuclear nonproliferation, mentioning specifically national
obligations under UNSCR 1540.

-------------- --------------
ELBARADEI FOR AP, MULTILAT FUEL CYCLE, "VERIFIABLE" FMCT
-------------- --------------


6. (U) ElBaradei made strong pitches for the universalization
of the Additional Protocol (AP) and for putting sensitive
portions of the nuclear fuel cycle under multilateral
regional or international control. Responding to a question
as to whether the NPT needed to be reformed, ElBaradei argued
that he thought it probably more important to implement the
NPT, rather than to try to reform it. He added that the NPT
could be further strengthened by complementing it with such
things as the AP and various options for putting the
sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle under multilateral
control, for example. ElBaradei argued that it would be

BERLIN 00001781 003 OF 005

adequately, mentioning specifically the DPRK, which he
bleakly assessed "had left the NPT without the UNSC even
discussing it."

-------------- --------------
STEINMEIER CALLS ON TEHRAN TO ACCEPT P5 GERMANY PROPOSAL
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Early in his remarks Beck underlined that the SPD does
not want to see a nuclear armed Iran -- one of the few
applause lines of the conference. Steinmeier said that no
one seeks to deny Iran access to peaceful nuclear energy
technology. However, he added, "anyone who so flagrantly
violates his treaty obligations for 18 years" -- i.e., Iran
-- needs to take steps to restore the deficit of confidence
that his actions have created. Steinmeier highlighted that
the Iran/nuclear problem involves not only the authority of
the NPT; also at stake is preventing a nuclear arms race in
the Middle East and protecting Israel from an existential
threat. Briefly noting his June 24 meeting in Berlin with
Iranian FM Mottaki, Steinmeier reiterated his public calls on
Iran to take a constructive approach to the P5 Germany
offer.


8. (U) ElBaradei said that the IAEA is still evaluating
whether Iran's nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes,
though he mentioned Iran along with countries that had shown
"worrying signals". ElBaradei argued that Iran has security
concerns, but that there is concern among the other countries
in the Middle East that Iran is seeking to increase its power
in order to project its influence throughout the region.
ElBaradei concluded that there are numerous regional security
issues that need to be addressed in the Middle East, but that
the international community first needs to clarify the nature
of the Iranian program.

--------------
STEINMEIER SAYS DEAL WITH INDIA "RIGHT WAY"
--------------


9. (U) Steinmeier said that Germany would like to see India,
Pakistan, and Israel join the NPT, but acknowledged that it
is unrealistic to believe that will be achievable in the
short-term. Therefore, he concluded, the international
community should find ways to bring the three states closer
to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Focusing on India,
Steinmeier said that the U.S.-India agreement, understood as
a "deal to exchange energy technology assistance for binding
obligations" of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, is the
"right way" to proceed. He added that "it would be a good
signal," if India also would adhere to the CTBT, declare a
moratorium on the production of fissile material for weapons
purposes, and accept obligations to limit and ultimately
dismantle its nuclear weapons program. According to
Steinmeier, all of these ideas are under discussion in the
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

--------------
SA/LW: "TRUE WMD"
--------------

BERLIN 00001781 004 OF 005




10. (U) While the conference was dedicated to nuclear
disarmament/nonproliferation issues, Steinmeier devoted some
of his time to the issue of small arms and light weapons
SA/LW. Noting the ongoing review conference on the UN's
SA/LW program, he called SA/LW the "true WMD", given the
large number of victims of small arms worldwide in conflicts
each year. He said that the international community should
devote more effort to controlling SA/LW transfers and
brokering.

--------------
STEINMEIER MAKES PLEA FOR A/CFE
--------------


11. (SBU) Turning briefly to the subject of "European arms
control", Steinmeier said that "the failure of the third CFE
RevCon endangers the core element of European security
architecture." After a brief review of the history of the
CFE and the Adapted CFE (A/CFE),he called on all state
parties "to meet their responsibilities and together to do
everything necessary to allow the A/CFE to come into force as
soon as possible." (Note: Steinmeier did not specifically
mention Russia's Istanbul Commitments. End Note) In this
context Steinmeier also argued that a "breakdown" of European
arms control would have consequences far beyond Europe,
because "Europe serves as a model worldwide for the creation
of security and stability."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The SPD's main motivation in holding this conference
was to raise its profile -- and that of FM Steinmeier -- on
an issue it considers one of its core competencies. Given
Christian Democratic (CDU) Chancellor Merkel's strong
performance on foreign policy issues, the SPD has struggled
to keep Steinmeier from being completely upstaged. In light
of this, it was no surprise that the conference was sprinkled
with copious references to Willy Brandt (the last SPD Foreign
Minister),conflict prevention, and "Ostpolitik"-style
engagement (with Egon Bahr looking on approvingly from the
front row). The thus far limited press echo suggests the SPD
may have miscalculated somewhat. German public fixation with
the ongoing World Cup may have something to do with that.
While nonproliferation elements were woven throughout the
conference discourse, the emphasis was on nuclear
disarmament, a subject that remains broadly popular in German
public opinion and one that easily can gain traction on short
notice in Germany, depending on national and international
developments. The central argument that the NPT was a "grand
bargain" trading nuclear nonproliferation for nuclear
disarmament has been an particularly unhelpful but stubbornly
recurring theme in German foreign policy (reftel B).
Although Embassy and senior USG delegations have made
numerous private and public efforts to get out our message,
many German MFA officials, parliamentarians, and think tank
experts persist in being dismissive of the U.S. record on NPT
Article VI.


13. (C) Though Steinmeier and Beck made only general appeals
for more action on nuclear disarmament, the question remains
how the SPD will seek to pursue this agenda in concrete
terms. SPD leaders several times during the conference
underlined that the SPD intends to take a pragmatic approach,
and is not being "naive" or overly idealistic. Nevertheless,
they have already encountered some resistance from the
CDU-led MOD, at least on procedural grounds. Following the
conference, the MOD spokesman criticized Beck for announcing
that the SPD intended to place nuclear disarmament on the
agendas of Germany's EU and G8 presidencies, arguing that any
such decisions should first be discussed with the CDU, the

BERLIN 00001781 005 OF 005


SPD's coalition partner. SPD representatives no doubt will
point out that the CDU-SPD coalition agreement calls for
making arms control and disarmament a "central concern" of
the government and for the long-term goal of the elimination
of all WMD. Moreover, German Social Democratic EP Martin
Schulz made clear during the conference that he intends to
work within the European Parliament to mobilize social
democrats from across Europe to support this agenda.


14. (S/NF) While some individual SPD members (including Beck
in May 2005) have in various ways called for the near-term
elimination of NATO nuclear weapons, including the withdrawal
of U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) allegedly
stationed in Germany, the SPD party as a whole thus far has
resisted this politically popular temptation (as has the CDU,
which remains the most "on side" party in Germany on this
issue). Meanwhile, the opposition Greens, Free Democrats,
and Left-wing parties all have called for the immediate
withdrawal of U.S. NSNW allegedly stationed in Germany
(reftel A). Moreover, following the SPD conference, the
Green party caucus put out a press release taunting the
Social Democrats, claiming the SPD held the conference only
to provide cover for itself as it moves to embrace the
U.S.-India nuclear deal. The Green caucus press release
further argued that, if the SPD were truly serious about
nuclear disarmament, it would call for the elimination of
NATO nuclear weapons. This issue is likely to continue to
draw scrutiny and attention as the SPD searches for ways to
fill its disarmament agenda with substance.
TIMKEN