BELIZE: 30 DAYS OUT - NATIONAL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BELIZE 000105

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - JASON MACK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: 30 DAYS OUT - NATIONAL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

REF: A) BELIZE 0020; B) 05 BELIZE 1027; C) 05 BELIZE 898

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SUMMARY
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1. In the run up to country-wide municipal elections on
March 1, neither of the major political parties appears to
have a clear hold on what they consider to be their main
constituencies. The Belize City mayoral race looks to be a
dead heat. Recent unseasonable heavy rains and road
erosion, intractable unemployment, a series of financial
scandals, and an alarming crime wave all have taken a toll
on public confidence in government. If the ruling People's
United Party (PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister
Said Musa may conclude that his government still retains a
sufficient mandate of the people, and could call early
national elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may
lead him to delay national elections, which need not be held
until March, 2008. If the opposition United Democratic
Party (UDP) does not do well, its leader, Dean Barrow, could
lose his position.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) With only 30 days until the March 1 nationwide
municipal elections, the parties have stepped up their door-
to-door and media activity. The past six months of
nominations and campaigning had been relatively quiet, but
in recent weeks the political atmosphere has become more
intense (REF A). The increasingly influential Association
of Concerned Belizeans (ACB) has launched a "don't sell your
vote" campaign designed to abate the easy influence
techniques that the parties are rumored to have used in the
past (e.g., giving away of "blue notes" - Bz$100 notes).

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WHAT'S AT STAKE?
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4. (SBU) If the United Democratic Party (UDP) does not have
a good showing on March 1, the party's leader, Dean Barrow,
could lose his position. If the ruling People's United Party
(PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister Said Musa may
conclude that his government still retains a sufficient
mandate of the people, and could call early national
elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may lead him
to delay national elections, which need not be held until
March, 2008.

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THE FOCI OF THE CAMPAIGNS
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5. (SBU) The PUP's campaign has played upon the residual
personal popularity of PM Musa, while the UDP has oriented
its national campaign around Belize City Mayoral Candidate
Zenaida Moya (REF A),the middle class, and the working
poor. The UDP has concentrated most of its limited
resources on Moya's race, but inside sources report that,
even here, spending has been constrained. Some speculate
that Barrow is conserving party funds for the possibility of
early national elections.


6. (SBU) The single-city party - Vision Inspired by the
People (VIP) (REF B),which aspires to win the mayorship of
Belmopan, has generated considerable national attention.
The two independent newspapers, Amandala and Reporter, have
praised the new party's motivation and prospects.
Separately, some other mayoral candidates have chosen to run
independently, possibly reflecting widespread disenchantment
with both the PUP and UDP.

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ANALYSIS & CONCLUSION: A WEARY ELECTORATE, DISTRUSTFUL OF
BOTH MAJOR PARTIES
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7. (SBU) The ruling PUP looks to be in trouble, as recent
unseasonable heavy rains and road erosion, as well as
financial scandals and an alarming crime wave, have dented
public confidence in government. The PUP has sought to
shore up its popularity in other ways, such as the recent
write off of Development Finance Corporation loans (REF C).
Informal polling of a cross-section of voters in Belize City
reveals that the mayoral race is a dead heat, and that
neither the UDP nor the PUP have clear holds on what they
consider to be their main constituencies.

DIETER