MONTENEGRO: SERB OPPOSITION PREPARING FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000966

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO: SERB OPPOSITION PREPARING FOR
PARLIAMENT ELECTION IN INDEPENDENT STATE


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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) Summary: President Andrija Mandic of the Serb
People's Party (SNS) outlined his plans to solidify support
among ethnic Serb voters in advance of the fall
parliamentary elections, on a platform of decentralizing
government to the local level. He readily acknowledged
Montenegro's independence, and faulted Serbian PM Kostunica
for first pushing the opposition into contesting the
referendum, and then failing to quickly recognize
Montenegro's sovereignty after the vote. Mandic listened
attentively as poloff faulted Mandic's "rejection" of the
referendum results in the days after the vote, but replied
that he did not wish to discuss the referendum. Mandic
said that the pro-Union bloc's activities contributed to
stability in the referendum period, and dismissed reports
of preparations to disrupt the outcome (septel) by arguing
that his actions spoke louder than words. End summary.

Decentralization in An Independent Montenegro
--------------


2. (U) Poloff met with Andrija Mandic, President of the
Serb People's Party (SNS),on June 15. Mandic argued that
the strong pro-Union turnout on May 21 showed that a Serb
nationalist coalition could do well in republic
parliamentary elections, due this fall. Acknowledging the
independence of Montenegro, Mandic said he and the SNS
would not follow the example of ethnic Serbs in Croatia and
Bosnia, but would instead seek to protect the interests of
ethnic Serbs within the legal and democratic framework of a
post-State Union republic. He said the core plank of the
SNS campaign would be decentralization of government
functions, to allow municipalities a greater say in the
staffing and delivery of public services, emphasizing
police and education. He readily agreed that his objective
could make him and for example Albanians seeking greater
autonomy for Tuzi, the proverbial "strange bedfellows."

Disappointment in Serbian PM Kostunica
--------------


3. (SBU) Mandic said his decision for SNS to enter the
referendum campaign was strongly influenced by a December
conversation in Belgrade with Serbian PM Kostunica. Mandic
said that he was disappointed that Kostunica has so far
failed to concur in recognition of Montenegro's
independence, after setting the stage for the referendum to
occur. Mandic added that if Belgrade was really interested
in protecting the interests of Serbs in Montenegro, the way
to do that was to establish a Serb embassy, and (tongue
only somewhat in cheek),"maybe four or five consulates."

Mandic Sheds Criticism
--------------


4. (SBU) Poloff underscored USG interest in a viable
Montenegrin democracy, including a democratic opposition.
Poloff reiterated that democracy means playing by the
rules, and accepting the outcome of a free and fair vote
and referendum process, faulting Mandic's public
"rejection" of the referendum results when announced by
Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia),the chair of the Republic
Referendum Commission. Mandic reiterated that he did not
wish to discuss the referendum, and that he accepted that
Montenegro is now independent.

Public Security Issues during the Referendum
--------------


5. (SBU) Poloff stressed that the USG had received
apparently reliable reports that, despite the solid calm
and peaceful atmosphere that pervaded the campaign and
vote, that the SNS had taken steps to reject, through
undemocratic means, the outcome of the referendum (septel).
Mandic urged that the reports be discounted, stressing the
near total lack of violent confrontation throughout the
campaign, the vote, and its aftermath. Mandic stated that
the pro-Union bloc's actions were the single largest
contributor to the peaceful outcome. Comment: Post is of
the view that the credit belongs, in much greater degree,
to Socialist People's Party (SNP) president Predrag
BULATOVIC, than to Mandic. End comment.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) Mandic is an engaging, well-spoken politician. He
is very conscious of his audience, and shapes his words

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accordingly. His stated commitment to a peaceful, multi-
ethnic, democratic and independent Montenegro can be used a
benchmark, and the USG would do well to hold him to the
standard that he has set for himself. End comment.

POLT