MONTENEGRIN MINORITIES LAW TO BE CAMPAIGN ISSUE

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN MINORITIES LAW TO BE CAMPAIGN ISSUE


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1. (SBU) Summary: Montenegro's new Law on Minorities,
passed in the heat of the referendum campaign on May 10,
will be an issue in the run-up to the fall parliamentary
campaign. The law expanded the number of minority MP set-
aside seats from four (of 75) to nine (of 80),to add
Bosniak, Muslim, and Croat seats to the present Albanian
seats. The civic opposition Socialist People's Party - SNP
- has publicly and privately objected to the set-aside
seats (in large part due to the minorities' support of the
GOM in the referendum). The Council of Europe has decided
not to take a public position on the law. End summary.

New Law on Minorities, New Set-Aside Minority Seats
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2. (U) Montenegro passed a Law on Minority Rights and
Freedoms (Law on Minorities) on May 10, to solidify
minority support for independence in the May 21 referendum
(ref). Article 23 of the new law has attracted the most
attention, in creating new set-aside seats for ethnic
minority parties in the Republic Parliament. In 1998, four
set-aside seats in the 75-seat parliament were created for
the Albanian minority (five percent of the republic
population). Currently, two of the four seats are held by
PM Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and
two by ethnic Albanian parties. The new law, according to
Minister for National and Ethnic Groups Rights Protection
Gzim Hajdinaga, will add five seats: three for Bosniaks,
one for Muslims, and one for Croats. (In 1998 these groups
decided not to request reserved seats.) Hajdinaga
explained that Roma are excluded as only 0.45 percent of
the Montenegrin population reports itself as Roma, and the
law sets aside seats only for minorities which comprise at
least 1.0 percent of the population. Note: Most estimates
suggest Roma comprise around 2 percent of the population,
but most reported themselves as "Montenegrin" in 2003, as
there were no advantages in not doing so. End note. The
contested Article 23 will have to be reflected in the
electoral law to be adopted this summer, before the fall
parliamentary elections.

Ethnic Composition of Montenegro - No Majority
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3. (U) Inhabitants of Montenegro were asked to self-report
their nationality/ethnicity in the 2003 census. The result
was as follows:

Montenegrins: 267,669 (43.16 percent)
Serbs: 198,414 (31.99 percent)
Bosniaks: 48,184 ( 7.77 percent)
Albanians: 31,163 ( 5.03 percent)
Slavic Muslims: 24,625 ( 3.97 percent)
Croats: 6,811 ( 1.1 percent)
Romas and Egyptians: 2,826 ( 0.46 percent)

Opposition Opposes Minority Law
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4. (U) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the civic opposition
Socialist People's Party - SNP -- has said publicly that he
opposes the new Law on Minorities. The SNP supported, and
still supports, the 1998 compromise that created the four
Albanian set-aside seats. The SNP told local media June 7
that it supports the idea that minorities living in
Montenegro have their representatives in Parliament, but
opposes the idea that minorities gain their mandates
according to the Law on Minorities Rights and Freedoms
adopted on May 10. The SNP instead advocates the creation
of special constituencies for minorities, like the current
gerrymandered constituencies in Tuzi and Ulcinj for the
Albanian minority. SNP believes that all parties should be
entitled to compete for mandates in those constituencies,
as is the case with the current Albanian set-asides. SNP
further observed that the Law on Minorities appears to
allow for double suffrage by minority voters - once for the
set-aside seats, once for the at-large seats.


5. (SBU) Bulatovic asked to see Consulate "urgently" on
June 1, to argue his objections to the Law on Minorities.
His argument tracked the SNP's later public statement. In
private, however, Bulatovic added that he saw the "bloc" of
nine minority seats created by the law as an insurmountable
obstacle for the opposition to PM Djukanovic, and thus a
guarantee for the DPS's hold on power. Stating that he
would leave politics if the law remained in force as is,

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Bulatovic asked for a USG statement in opposition to the
law. Bulatovic was informed that the USG considered the
law an internal Montenegrin matter, and therefore had no
official stance. Conversely, Djukanovic has also sought,
through intermediaries, to enlist USG support for the law;
Minister Hajdinaga was informed on June 6, during a meeting
on this subject that he requested, that the USG would
prefer not to become identified with one side or the other
on this contentious campaign issue.

Council of Europe - No Wish to Challenge
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6. (SBU) In late March, Council of Europe head of office
Vladimir Ristovski told Consulate that the CoE disapproved
of the law's set-aside provisions, but would not move to
block its passage (ref). Ristovski confirmed to Principal
Officer on June 3 that the CoE would not seek to have the
law revised.

Comment
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6. (SBU) While set-aside seats for minorities are not
uncommon in Europe, the present law should probably be
reviewed by international organizations, such as the COE
and/or OSCE. Given solid minority support for Djukanovic's
pro-independence stance at the referendum, Bulatovic's
point that the law will create a solid parliamentary
majority for the DPS has some merit -- at least in the
short term. However, this does not necessarily mean that
this bloc of seats will be pro-government in perpetuity,
now that the independence issue is behind us. Indeed, some
minority leaders have already publicly expressed deep
dissatisfaction with Djukanovic's policies. Also,
depending on how the electoral law incorporates the
Minorities Law, minorities will either be overrepresented
(as SNP claims),or underrepresented (as asserted by the
Bosniak Party- ref). End comment.

Text of Article 23, unofficial translation
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7. (U) Begin text.

Electoral legislation, through application of the principle
of affirmative action, shall prescribe additional number of
mandates for the representatives of persons belonging to
minorities.

Minorities who, in accordance with the last census, make
between 1 percent and 5 percent of the total population
shall be represented with one mandate in the Assembly of
the Republic of Montenegro, through a representative
elected from the minority candidates list.

Minorities who, in accordance with the last census, exceed
5 percent of the total population shall have three
guaranteed mandates in the Assembly of the Republic of
Montenegro, through representatives elected from the
minority candidates lists, provided that linguistic and
ethnic specificities, as well as acquired electoral rights
of Albanians in the Republic are taken into account.

End text.

POLT