MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE: DEVELOPMENTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000898

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE: DEVELOPMENTS


BELGRADE 00000898 001.2 OF 002


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 894


1. (SBU) Summary: The GoM is moving quickly to establish
itself as an independent state, following the June 3
Declaration of Independence. The GoM on June 4 requested
international recognition from the USG (ref),and other
members of the UN Perm-5 as well as neighboring states.
Quint Ambassadors told Ambassador Polt that they expect the
June 12 EU General Affairs Council meeting to give the
green light to recognition and for individual member states
to do so quickly thereafter.


2. (SBU) The Serbian parliament on June 5 formally
acknowledged that according to the State Union Charter it
is the successor state in all legal matters. Montenegro is
expected to rapidly seek membership in international
organizations, starting with the OSCE. President Tadic has
been statesman-like and his office has indicated it will
seek to ensure smooth transition at the UN with Tadic
possibly traveling to NY for a Serbian flag-raising on 6
June. An angry and sulking PM Kostunica has taken a much
lower road, emphasizing no rush on recognition and that he
will focus on the Republic of Serbia's interests.
Transition issues with regard to military matters appear to
be proceeding smoothly and without controversy. End
summary.

Montenegro Declares Independence
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3. (U) The Montenegrin Parliament adopted a formal
Declaration of Montenegrin Independence on June 3. The
pro-Union Montenegrin opposition boycotted the event, as
did guests invited from the Government of Serbia. Serbian
President Boris Tadic excused himself for not being able to
attend the reception in Podgorica. In an official letter to
the GoM, he wished all Montenegrin citizens peace,
stability and general prosperity, adding his belief that
Montenegro will become a prosperous society which will
through partnership with other states of the region, Serbia
above all, ensure its European future. SaM Foreign Minister
Vuk Draskovic congratulated Montenegrin President Vujanovic
and PM Djukanovic on the declaration of independence. He
said that while Serbia and Montenegro will be two
independent states, the close relations between two
fraternal peoples will remain unchanged.

Montenegro Requests International Recognition
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4. (U) As expected, the GoM has moved quickly to request
recognition of its independence. Requests have gone out to
the USG (ref),neighboring states, EU states, and Russia
and China. The Montenegrin MFA confirms that the GoM's
application for OSCE membership was made on June 5, with
acceptance hoped for by the end of July. Minister of
Finance Luksic told media the GoM will soon apply for
membership in the IMF, World Bank, European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),and similar
international financial institutions. President Vujanovic
wrote UNSYG Annan on June 5 requesting UN membership; the
GoM has indicated it hopes to have its application for UN
membership approved in time for the beginning of the UN
General Assembly in September.


5. (SBU) The GOM hopes to pick up negotiations on an SAA
for Montenegro where SaM left off in April, and GoM
officials aim to have the SAA signed by December.
Negotiations for WTO membership were already on two tracks,
one for Serbia and one for Montenegro, from early in 2005.
The EU Presidency noted the Parliamentary declaration of
independence in a June 3 press release (10152/06),and said
the General Affairs and External Relations Council will
address the matter further at its June 12 meeting.
Bilateral recognition of Montenegro by EU states will
likely follow after the June 12 session. Quint Ambassadors
confirmed this to Ambassador Polt on June 5 and expected
individual EU member countries' recognition to follow very
shortly after that meeting. Quint Ambassador's also
speculated that: the UK would recognize and ask for
agrement for its Belgrade Ambassador at the same time; the
French would recognize, but not clear on when/how
Ambassador question would be settled; similar with the
Germans; Italy would likely recognize and dual accredit its
Belgrade Ambassador.

State Union Bodies Dissolving
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6. (U) Montenegrin officials have begun to withdraw from
State Union bodies, and replaced by Serbian officials where
Serbia will succeed to the State Union institutions, e.g.,
Defense and Foreign Affairs. SaM President Marovic has
departed his post, as has Deputy Defense Minister Maras,
both Montenegrins. The Montenegrin chief of the MoD's
Military Intelligence Service (VOA) has been replaced, and
the Montenegrin Chief of the General Staff has been
relieved at his own request. Serbian PM Kostunica has said
that Montenegrins in the Foreign Ministry, both in Belgrade
and abroad, should depart immediately.


7. (U) The SaM Supreme Defense Council convened by
telephone for the final time on June 2, and decided that in
accordance with Article 6 of the Constitutional Charter, to
devolve command of the Serbian military to President Tadic,
and command of the Montenegrin military to President
Vujanovic. The speaker of the SaM parliament has said that
it will not meet again, and that its final session was
already held on May 11. Despite these developments,
confusion was still reigning as of June 3, when two State
Union officials admitted to DCM that no one knew the legal
status of the State Union or how administrative matters --
such as when their pay stops -- would be handled.

Kostunica Rejects Solana's Offer to Mediate Divorce
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8. (U) Serb Assembly Speaker Markovic has announced that
the parliament will meet on June 5 to formally confirm
Serbia's status as a successor state as provided in the
Union Charter. Kostunica referred to a package of laws
that will regulate devolution of SaM legislation to the
Serbian Republic to be prepared in the next 45 days.
Kostunica's comments to the press have been acerbic.
Meeting in Belgrade June 2, Serbian PM Kostunica declined
EU FM Solana's offer to assist in the dissolution of the
State Union and continued to suggest that the EU had played
a role in the referendum result. EU officials described to
us Kostunica's behavior toward Solana as bordering on rude.
An angry and sullen Kostunica slammed the EU's suspension
of SAA talks, claiming that it had affected the referendum
outcome. The PM even publicly compared the EU with Mladic
himself, arguing that both were holding Serbia hostage to
the fate of one man.

POLT