MONTENEGRO: OPPOSITION LEADER BULATOVIC BETWEEN

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000874

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO: OPPOSITION LEADER BULATOVIC BETWEEN
SCYLLA AND CHARYBDIS


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: A) Belgrade 860 B) 05 Belgrade 2185 C) Belgrade 400


1. (SBU) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the civic-oriented
opposition Socialist People's Party (SNP),told Consulate
June 1 that if he was compelled to participate in the June
3 parliamentary adoption of the referendum results and
Declaration of Independence, his party would disintegrate.
As a result, the Serb nationalist parties would gain
strength, moving closer to the Radicals. He reiterated
that he has not joined the Serb nationalist parties (his
referendum bloc allies) in rejecting the results, and
instead said that the SNP acknowledges that the EU has
recognized that Montenegro will be independent. He
explicitly asked that the USG, and the rest of the
international community, turn a blind eye to the absence of
SNP from the upcoming June 3 parliamentary session, in
order to preserve a civic opposition in Montenegro. He
will also discuss this situation on June 2 with EU FM
Solana. Bulatovic understood that the USG (and EU) cannot
agree to his absence from the parliamentary session; what
he sought was that his absence would not lead to a
termination of dialogue between himself and the SNP, and
the international community.


2. (SBU) Bulatovic noted that while the pro-Union bloc
garnered 185,000 votes in the May 21 referendum, 184,000 of
those came from ethnic Serbs and Montenegrins - no
Bosniaks, Muslims, Albanians or Croats voted for Union. In
other words, he added, 60 percent of Montenegro's Orthodox
community voted for Union.


3. (SBU) He cautioned that Andrija Mandic, leader of the
Serb People's Party (SNS) (note: almost equal in size to
SNP) was increasingly headed in the direction of Seselj's
Radicals, a move which would be destructive of the good
ethnic relations prevailing in Montenegro. Without the SNP
as an alternative, cautioned Bulatovic, Mandic's support
could grow to 100,000 voters (out of a total electorate of
485,000),and create for the first time a large,
nationalist opposition in Montenegro.


4. (SBU) Note: If the pro-union bloc entirely fails to
appear for the June 3 session to formally adopt the
referendum results, the GOM will likely rely on the 2002
Constitutional Court decision (Ref B) that a 2/3 majority
vote in parliament is not required to ratify referendum
results. End note.


5. (SBU) Comment: Bulatovic is an intelligent politician
who is trying, with some success, to remold his party as a
civic party. As such, he is the only opposition political
leader who has turned his back fully on the Serb
nationalism of the 1990s, in sharp contrast to his pro-
Union allies. It should be noted that the SNP leadership
benched the Radicals during the referendum campaign, at USG
request (Ref C). While we (and the EU) cannot explicitly
condone his planned absence, we agree with his analysis
that his presence when the referendum result is ratified
could be a serious blow to the SNP. Dialogue with
Bulatovic and the SNP should continue at prior levels, so
long as he does not join his erstwhile allies in rejecting
the referendum results - a step he assured us he will not
take.

POLT