Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE860
2006-05-31 06:38:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: STEPS TOWARD INDEPENDENCE

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
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VZCZCXRO2386
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #0860/01 1510638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 310638Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8686
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000860 

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TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: STEPS TOWARD INDEPENDENCE

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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: A) Belgrade 825 B) 05 Belgrade 2185

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000860

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TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: STEPS TOWARD INDEPENDENCE

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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: A) Belgrade 825 B) 05 Belgrade 2185


1. (SBU) Summary: One week after the vote, the positions of
the Governments of Montenegro and Serbia are converging
around the inevitability of a divorce. While neither
government has presented a concrete and definitive plan,
both have indicated to us they anticipate swift dissolution
of the State Union. Once the results are final (by June
1),the GOM specifically plans to obtain parliamentary
approval and have the Montenegrin MFA issue letters
requesting recognition immediately after the approval,
perhaps as soon as June 2. The Montenegrin opposition did
not concede, and filed over 200 complaints in an effort to
change the May 21 pro-independence outcome; the effort has
little chance to succeed, however, especially following
Solana's conclusion that the referendum had succeeded.
Pro-Union bloc leader Predrag Bulatovic said May 29 he will
abide by Solana's verdict that independence has won. The
GOS has told us that there are no obstacles to rapid
recognition of Montenegro and that it would not pre-
condition recognition on resolution of financial and other
issues. President Tadic's visit to Podgorica on 5/27 sent
a strong signal of Serbia's willingness to work closely
with an independent Montenegro. End summary.

Montenegro Seeking to Move Quickly
--------------


2. (SBU) The GOM appears to be moving on a fast track
toward recognition. While the process is still in flux and
the GoM is hesitant to commit to a definitive timeline,
this is the GOM's (most) optimistic plan, as confirmed by
Ivan Lekovic, Chief of Staff to Montenegrin President
Vujanovic, and Aleksandar Bogdanovic, Economic adviser to
Vujanovic:

By June 1: The Republic Referendum Commission (RRC) and RRC
Chair Lipka (Slovakia) will issue the final results on the
referendum. The opposition made some 240 complaints, but
200 were dismissed by the RRC by late on May 29. The RRC
stated that most complaints dealt with issues beyond its
competency, e.g., inaccuracies in the voters' lists, which
closed nine days before the referendum, on May 12. COMMENT:
We expect the RRC and Lipka to accept the preliminary

result as final, bearing in mind the strong bill of health
given to the referendum process by the OSCE and USG
observers among others. End comment.

June 2: Speaker convenes Parliament to accept the RRC
report and pass a Declaration of Independence. COMMENT: It
appears that the main opposition party, the Socialist
People's Party (SNP),will concur in the results once the
RRC completes its processes and after the EU acknowledges
the final results. The Serbian People's Party (SNS) has
however peremptorily rejected the results, and the
remainder of the opposition is straddling the fence. If
enough of the opposition decide to boycott, the GOM will
likely rely on the 2002 Constitutional Court decision (Ref
B) regarding the binding nature of referendums to negate
the need for opposition cooperation.

June 5: GOM MFA sends out letters requesting recognition of
Montenegro's status as an independent nation, attaching
copies of the parliamentary action.

GOM: Talking with Serbia
--------------


3. (SBU) Lekovic and Bogdanovic told consulate officers on
May 24 that the GoM hoped that Serbia would be the first to
recognize Montenegro. Bogdanovic stated that the MFA's top
priority was to work with GOS on mutual issues, such as the
free flow of people and border control. Both interlocutors
believed that GOS was sending positive signals and would
ultimately be cooperative. Lekovic stated that if all went
according to plan, Montenegro would declare May 21 as its
official Independence Day, while July 13 would remain as
Montenegro's Republic Day. He added that the MFA and the
Ministry of Culture would probably move to Cetinje, but
most of the GOM would remain in Podgorica.

New Constitution. New Prime Minister?
--------------


4. (SBU) Lekovic hoped that a new constitution would be
adopted before national elections in October. Both seemed
confident that Djukanovic would continue in politics and
claimed that after a referendum win, this is what the

BELGRADE 00000860 002.2 OF 003


people of Montenegro will want. When asked who could
succeed Djukanovic if he were to leave politics, both
interlocutors were at a loss for names, but did offer that
Marovic might be a leading candidate. Biographic note:
These two young (late 20s),sharp, intelligent men were
very impressive and could represent the future of
Montenegrin politics. They were extremely knowledgeable on
a variety of topics and had an excellent command of
English. They opined that they would like to stay in
Montenegro to work to build a better nation--unlike their
peers who have already left--and they hoped that perhaps
some of the young people who left Montenegro would now come
back to help build an independent state. End note.

Montenegrin Opposition: Hard Hit and Hitting Back
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Over the past week, the Montenegrin opposition has
predictably taken an uncooperative stance on the referendum
results. Five minutes before the deadline, the pro-union
bloc filed approximately 240 complaints with the RRC and
Lipka. The complaints, by law, must be resolved quickly and
a final result is expected to be announced by June 1. The
pro-Union bloc has said it will not appeal the RRC
decisions to the Constitutional Court, which they view as
under Djukanovic's sway. The three main leaders of the
opposition, Predrag Bulatovic (SNP),Predrag Popovic (NS),
and Andrija Mandic (SNS),offered harsh criticisms of the
referendum voting, in contrast to the strongly positive
assessment of international observers, and in the face of
strong urging from EU Envoy Lajcak (Slovakia) to accept the
results and move on. Bulatovic is already heading in that
direction, announcing May 29 that he will acquiesce in
Javier Solana's judgment that the referendum results are
valid. Mandic has called on all pro-union voters not to
accept the results, a potentially destabilizing albeit
rhetorical move.

GOS: Frustrated, but Accepting
--------------


6. (SBU) The GOS has no real timeline for dissolution, but
there are two separate processes at work that should be
viewed as separate, but related. First is the formal
process of dissolution. Representatives of the GOS and the
ruling Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) said that Prime
Minister Kostunica will recognize the results of the
referendum once the EU releases the official tally. Two
key advisors to Kostunica informed us of the same.
Nonetheless, Milos Aligrudic, head of the DSS parliamentary
group, told poloff that Premier Kostunica believes that
Prime Minister Djukanovic stole the election, although said
that they will accept the EU's final ruling. He added that
the opposition had accepted these same conditions and, as a
result, had to abide by Lipka's decision. Aligrudic does
not anticipate any further disputes after the final results
are released. To this end, he said that the GOS has no
objections to Podgorica declaring independence as soon as
possible. Kostunica's adviser Slobodan Samardzic told DCM
May 30 that he sees no reason why Serbia would not
recognize quickly and that resolution of bilateral issues
will not be a precondition for recognition.


7. (SBU) The second aspect of the State Union dissolution
is secession negotiations, which will address future
Serbian and Montenegrin relations on a variety of topics
from defense to health care. For this, Vladeta Jankovic,
foreign policy advisor to Kostunica, told poloff that the
GOS has no interest in pursuing these talks quickly. His
deputy, Gordana Jaksic, even said that the GOS had
considered starting a dialogue at the end of 2006. Many of
the inter-republic issues are largely decided with only a
handful of complicated issues remaining (for example, cross
border education and health care, dividing up properties,
settling Montenegro's debt to the State Union, etc). The
timeline for discussions could last a year a more, though.
The GOS recognizes that it has limited expertise and
manpower to carry out secession negotiations and an
extensive internal overhaul (see below). Many of their top
people are already focused on Kosovo final status talks and
SAA negotiations. The GOS will be hard pressed to find
enough talent and resources to adequately and expediently
address the post-referendum issues. One other advisor close
to Kostunica told us on 5/26, however, that these issues
were generally non-controversial and could be resolved "in
a day."

GOS Restructuring
--------------


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8. (SBU) Second, there are a number of internal legal
changes that Serbia will need to make. GOS will need to
fold the Ministry of Defense and MFA into its current
governing structure. Interlocutors told poloff that the
GOS will also absorb the Ministry for Minorities and Human
Rights. The GOS will have to adopt laws that currently
only exist on the State Union level; most notably the law
on extradition of Serbian citizens, which is essential to
cooperation with ICTY. All of these changes will have
significant political ramifications--the GOS has already
begin discussions on a cabinet reshuffle--which will
exponentially complicate the process. The Socialist Party
of Serbia, whose support is critical to the survival of
Kostunica's government, has already staked out its firm
opposition to many of potential candidates for this re-
shuffle.

GOS: Dissolution is Just the Beginning of the Struggle
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) While emphasizing that the GOS will accept the
referendum's results and behave in a responsible manner,
Aligrudic said that the current state of affairs is "not
final." First, he outlined the developing GOS strategy to
oppose Djukanovic. The DSS expects him to launch a
campaign to win over pro-Union voters by baiting the GOS
into overreaction on various issues. Aligrudic promised
that Belgrade will response calmly and rationally to any
such provocations. He also said that the GOS will continue
to work with Montenegrin opposition to defeat Djukanovic in
the upcoming parliamentary election and plans to force
Djukanovic to campaign on key issues instead of simply the
referendum victory. Lastly, Aligrudic said that Serbia
will try to reunite with Montenegro in the future, even if
it takes 30-50 years.
POLT