MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: INDEPENDENCE, ACCORDING TO

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: INDEPENDENCE, ACCORDING TO
OFFICIAL "PRELIMINARY" RETURNS

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1. (SBU) Summary: The Republic Referendum Commission
announced at 8:30 a.m. Monday May 23, the official
preliminary results in the May 21 independence referendum:
55.5 percent for independence. While official, these
results are "preliminary," pending possible complaints that
could be lodged by the pro-Union bloc. Although the pro-
Union option squeaked by with just 2000 votes above the 55
percent required threshold, we believe it unlikely that the
final result will change, even after complaints have been
processed. Turnout was exceptionally high, at 86.5
percent. OSCE/ODIHR called the vote "free and fair." The
Mission released the Ambassador's statement acknowledging
the outcome and commending the Montenegrin people on a fair
contest. The Ambassador also congratulated President
Vuijanovic and Prime Minister Djukanovic by phone and
commiserated with opposition leader BULATOVIC, urging him
to close ranks in Montenegro and look to the future. End
summary.

Official "Preliminary" Results: Independence
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2. (U) Republican Referendum Commission (RRC) chair
Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia) announced the official
preliminary results on the morning of May 23: 55.5 percent
in favor of independence, with turnout of 86.49 percent of
Montenegro's 484,718 voters. Invalid ballots were only 0.87
percent. The RRC's first announcement, on the morning of
May 22, put the votes at 55.4 percent for independence,
44.6 percent for Union, while still waiting results from 45
of 1,117 polling stations, which Lipka said represented
some 25,000 voters. So far, no complaints have been
received on the voting process. Any complaints must be
filed by 9 a.m. May 26; the RRC must resolve complaints
within 24 hours. Parliament will then vote to accept the
results. A GoM declaration of independence, and requests
for recognition, could follow rapidly after the
Parliamentary vote.

Opposition Urged Patience - and Stonewalled
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3. (U) Pro-Union bloc leader Predrag BULATOVIC criticized
the PM's early claim of victory, saying that Montenegrins
should wait for the Republic Referendum Commission's
announcement of official preliminary results later, "after
all the votes were counted." BULATOVIC's SNP led a pro-
Union bloc refusal to certify results of 37 polling places
(totaling 19,000 votes) in Podgorica, citing "glitches" in
the lower boards' minutes. With a legal requirement that
preliminary results be announced by 9 a.m. May 23, RRC
Chair Lipka had to step in and certify the results.
Nonetheless, BULATOVIC's call late on May 21 for Union
supporters to stay home until official results are
available appears to have helped avoid clashes between the
blocs. Comment: The pro-Union bloc commendably took their
objections to and through the appropriate bureaucratic
mechanisms, and not to the streets. End comment.

Strong Turnout, Minor Irregularities, Few Altercations
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4. (U) Turnout was exceptionally high at 86.5 percent,
reflecting the strong interest raised by the independence
question and the return of thousands of voters from abroad.
Minor irregularities, most commonly public voting, affected
a noticeable number of polling stations. Irregularities did
not rise to the level requiring the dissolution of polling
stations. Polling boards were mixed in their decisions on
public voting, with most public votes being invalidated.
Three of Montenegro's 1,117 stations were temporarily
affected by fistfights, but voting was not cancelled. In
one such instance, a local observer was physically attacked
but not injured by a passerby outside a polling station in
Bijelo Polje. Generally, polling boards took seriously
their duty to assure everyone their right to vote on May

21. Unfortunately, a small number of board members (who
belong 50/50 to either the pro-independence or pro-union
blocs) allowed their partisan views to affect their
performance, usually either by facilitating the tracking of
those who had voted, or by continuing to discuss the pros
and cons of independence inside the polling place. The most
egregious examples of partisanship were in Podgorica after

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the vote, as noted. Unclear rules on the use of cell phones
in the polling places also caused complications, and
facilitated some forms of public voting.

Local Observers Kept Focus on Problems, Turnout
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5. (U) Local NGOs Center for Democratic Transition (CDT)
and the Center for Monitoring (CEMi) deployed hundreds of
observers throughout Montenegro. They also conducted
regular press conferences throughout the day, in which they
highlighted irregularities, and announced turnout, on both
the Republic and municipality level. USG teams used the
reports of irregularities to follow up in problem polling
stations, which in many but not all cases had mended their
ways after the NGO reports.

OSCE/ODIHR Calls Voting "In Line with Standards"
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7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODIHR observers reports rated the voting
process at 96 percent of polling stations as "good" or
"very good" ("very good" is the top mark). ODIHR made its
preliminary report midday on Monday May 22, calling the
conduct of the referendum "in line with OSCE and Council of
Europe commitments and other international standards." Post
shares ODIHR's assessment of the voting process, and
concurs the vote was free, fair, and transparent.

The view from Belgrade
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8. (U) While there has been no official reaction from the
GOS, media has reported some disgruntled rumblings from the
PM's office. PM advisor Aleksandar Simic lambasted the
pollsters as part of a "separatist scenario" and said that
he would "not be surprised if someone today filed criminal
charges" against them. Meanwhile, FM Draskovic took the
opportunity of the referendum result to call for a
restoration of the Serbian crown as part of a
constitutional monarchy as a way "to shorten our road
towards Europe." Local analysts do not think Draskovic?s
call will resonate with the electorate.

Croatia, Macedonia Reportedly Congratulate Independence
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9. (U) Montenegrin media reported at noon on May 22 that
Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has congratulated
Montenegrin President Vujanovic on the "(creation of) the
independent state of Montenegro." Also on May 22,
Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski congratulated
Vujanovic on Montenegro's independence, according to a
statement from Crvenkovski's Cabinet. Kosovo's President
Sejdiju and PM Ceku have also expressed congratulations for
Montenegrin independence. The numerous congratulatory
messages coming in from others focus more or less
explicitly on the referendum process itself rather than the
result.

Comment
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10. (SBU) So far there has been silence from senior
officials in Belgrade; with the predictable unsubstantiated
speculation from lower level officials and unnamed press
sources. As we reported in reftel there will have to be a
number of practical/legal fixes for a post-SaM future. All
of that will become clearer in the days ahead as soon as
all the votes are counted and the likely result is
confirmed. We do not discount last minute challenges but
will look to make a statement quickly and to encourage
practical steps that will ensure that there is no
uncertainty or discontinuity in the normal functioning of
government in Belgrade.


11. (U) Montenegrins of all political persuasions have been
assuring sometimes skeptical foreigners for months that
they expected little if any violence or instability,
whatever the referendum result. In the event, they debated
and decided a momentous, highly-charged issue whose outcome
was balanced on a statistical knife-edge, without major
problems -- at least so far. International observers have
commended Montenegro for its democratic handling of this
challenging vote.

POLT