MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGNS END

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000805

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGNS END
- NOW THE VOTE


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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 787


1. (U) Summary: The blocs concluded their campaigns late on
Thursday May 18, just ahead of the media blackout. Pro-
Union leader Bulatovic has called for unity in Montenegro
on May 22, no matter the outcome. Police suspect three
pro-Union activists of laundering campaign donations. The
Republic Referendum Commission (RRC) adopted ballot
interpretation standards closer to international practice.
RRC also promised to have official results no later than 9
p.m. local on Monday May 22. A strong international and
domestic observer presence will be on hand for the vote.
End summary.

"Bloc for Love" Urges "NO" in Podgorica Rally
--------------


2. (SBU) The pro-Union bloc, recently self-renamed to the
"Bloc for Love" (between Montenegro and Serbia) held its
last big rally in Podgorica's main Republic Square the
evening of May 16. Bloc leadership focused on the
"brotherly relations" between the two republics,
reiterating their initial theme that "There are enough of
us to say no." While media placed the crowd at 15,000 or
more, independent estimates by USG observers put maximum
attendance at no more than 6,500. (The assembly area of the
square is about 6,800 square meters.) Many of those were
from the north of Montenegro, and a sizeable proportion was
not of voting age. State Union flags outnumbered those of
Serbia (and the former Yugoslavia),but spontaneous chants
of "Serbia" (and "Greater Serbia") drew a stronger response
than orchestrated chants of "No, no, no."

Pro-Independence Bloc Rallies in Podgorica
--------------


3. (SBU) The pro-Independence bloc held its last rally on
the evening of May 18, in Podgorica's Republic Square. A
uniform emphasis was on the desire 'to restore
independence," evinced by the strong and warm welcome for
Liberal Party leader Zivkovic - Zivkovic's party is small,
but fervently pro-independence. Most of the crowd,
estimated by USG observers at 12,000, were from the capital
region, but generally older than the pro-Union crowd two
nights earlier. Unsurprisingly, a sea of red Montenegrin
flags covered the square.

Pro-Union Bloc Calls for Unity After Vote
--------------


4. (U) In a May 17 interview, pro-Union bloc leader Predrag
Bulatovic called for Montenegrin unity after the
referendum, regardless of its outcome. He also called for
voting Milo Djukanovic and his Democratic Party of
Socialists (DPS) from power (parliamentary elections will
be held in the early fall). He concluded that The
international community has recognized SNP as a party that
is the key factor in the future government, where I would
have nothing against parties and individuals from the bloc
that supports independence.

Police Charge Pro-Union Bloc Reps with Money Laundering
-------------- --------------


5. (U) The Montenegrin police and the Administration for
the Prevention of Money Laundering (Administration) filed
criminal charges with the Prosecutor for Organized Crime
against three representatives of the pro-Union bloc on
suspicion of "forging documents, committing fraud and money
laundering in the amount of 261,395 euros," according to
media reports on May 18. The Police stated that the three
made false lists of members of pro-Union individuals who
had donated 500-2,000 euros to the pro-Union bloc and paid
the total amount of the alleged donation to the account of
the pro-Union bloc in "Montenegro Bank" on May 4-5. The
police state that their investigation revealed over 21
people from the "donor list" who denied that they had
donated money to the bloc. Comment: Local banks are
required to report promptly all transactions over 15,000
Euros to the Administration. No further legal action in the
case is expected until after the vote. There has been no
public reaction to the arrests. End comment.

Referendum Commission Adopts More Flexible Standards
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Chair of the Republican Referendum Commission

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(RRC) Frantisek Lipka stated May 17 that each ballot will
be treated as valid if the voter's intent can be
determined, regardless of whether "Yes" or "No" is circled
as the RRC earlier prescribed, or is "framed in some other
way." Comment: The new decision more closely conforms
with international standards and practice, and should
reduce the number of invalid and disputed ballots. Post had
estimated previously that as many as five percent of the
ballots risked invalidation under the old interpretation;
the new standard should reduce the percentage of invalid
ballots, to one percent or less, in line with previous
votes in Montenegro. End comment.

Official Results by 9 p.m. Monday May 22
--------------


7. (SBU) RRC Chair Lipka announced May 17 that Commission
will present the referendum result by 9 p.m. on May 22 at
the latest, i.e., 24 hours after the polls close. He
explained that the RRC was working in line with the law
which implied that the Commission may present the
referendum result only after it received results from all
municipal referendum commissions. He underscored that only
the Commission announcement was official. Comment:
Unofficial results should be available about one hour after
the polls close, and it is likely that the official result
will be announced early on Monday rather than the time
cited by Lipka. End comment.

Over 3000 Observers On Hand
--------------


8. (U) The Republican Referendum Commission has accredited
over 3,336 domestic and foreign observers from 22 domestic
and international organizations including the OSCE/ODIHR,
EU Monitoring Mission, Council of Europe's Congress of the
Local and Regional Authorities, European Parliament and
diplomats from throughout SaM.

POLT