Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE739
2006-05-11 06:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: AFTER MAY 21

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0751
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0739/01 1310636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110636Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8545
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000739 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: AFTER MAY 21


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 679

Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000739

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: AFTER MAY 21


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 679

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) On Sunday May 21, Montenegro will hold a
referendum on independence (or "state status"). A clear
referendum result above the 55 percent threshold will lead
directly to a GoM declaration of independence and a GoM
request for recognition - although many expect that the
ceremonial GOM independence declaration would occur on July
13, the anniversary of the first international recognition
of Montenegro's sovereignty (in 1878). If the results fall
below 55 percent of valid votes cast (and over 50 percent),
many observers expect the GoM to present the GoS with a new
model for looser relations between the republics (possibly
accompanied by a Montenegrin withdrawal from State Union
institutions). The GOM would also likely seek recognition
among sympathetic states, including within the EU. Violence
and electoral fraud are not expected to affect the
referendum outcome, but a tally close to the 55 percent
threshold combined with high requirements for considering a
vote to be valid could delay announcement of official
results. By law, the outcome must be published within than
15 days after the vote, i.e., June 5. Two recent polls
indicated support for independence slightly above the 55
percent level. End Summary.

Legal Timeline for Results
--------------


2. (U) The Referendum Law requires 55 percent of valid
votes to be "yes" to adopt independence. The law further
requires that the Republic Commission establish preliminary
results no later than 9:00 a.m. on May 23, and the outcome
of the referendum must be gazetted no later than June 5,
without exceptions.

Practical Timeline for Results
--------------


3. (SBU) By about 10:00 p.m. local time on Sunday May 21,
the USG expects to have initial read-outs from the parallel
vote count to be conducted by the NGO Center for Democratic
Transition (CDT). OSCE/ODIHR plans to announce its
preliminary findings at 2:00 p.m. local on Monday May 22;
the USG will see the draft report earlier in the day.

Possible Impediments to an Early Official Announcement
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) While the question is clear ("Do you want the

Republic of Montenegro to be an independent state with full
international and legal personality?"),and requires a
simple "yes" or "no" from the voter, the law also
incorporates provisions from the 2001 law specifying that
the only valid mark is to circle the chosen option. The
2001 provision is generally seen as narrowing the scope for
determining the voter's intent, and may lead to a higher
number of disputable and invalid ballots, perhaps as high
as five percent. With public opinion polls showing support
hovering around the 55 percent threshold, it may be
necessary to resolve a large number of disputes before
announcing a final result. Unfortunately, all the polling
boards and referendum commissions, except the Republic
Commission itself, are evenly split between the opposing
blocs and can be expected to take strict partisan stances.
Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia),the Republic Referendum
Commission chair and the only "odd man out", may have the
unenviable task of resolving all (or nearly all) the
disputed ballots. Lipka has indicated a tendency to view
the legal requirements strictly, which could increase the
number of invalid ballots. Lipka's decision could be
appealed to the Montenegro Constitutional Court for a
ruling on whether the law as applied was too restrictive -
the Court is likely to side with whatever argument is put
forward by the Government. The Commission and, if needed,
the Court will need to conclude their actions before June
5, as required by the law.

If 55 Percent is Reached: Independence
--------------


5. (U) The Montenegrin Republic Parliament has sixty days,
until July 21, to adopt any acts required by the decision
reached in the referendum. It is likely that the
parliament would act more quickly than required. In passing
the March 2006 Referendum Law, a political understanding

BELGRADE 00000739 002 OF 002


was reached that both blocs would support the outcome of a
free and fair vote. The act would probably be a simple
acknowledgement of the referendum outcome, allowing the
Government to formally declare independence, or may itself
be a declaration of independence. In either case, the
Government of Montenegro would then send letters to foreign
governments requesting recognition of its independence.

If 55 Percent is Not Reached: Heightened Autonomy
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) There is a possibility that a majority of the
population will vote for independence, but that "yes" votes
will fail to reach the 55 percent threshold (a so-called
"gray zone" result). While the leading faction of the pro-
union bloc (the Socialist People's Party - SNP) says any
result below 55 percent means the State Union continues as
before, the pro-Union bloc is factionalized, with some
supporting a federal state, others (a minority) a unitary
state. (Comment: Even Serbian PM Kostunica told the
Ambassador as recently as 5/9 that the State Union would
have to be "re-modeled" in the event the independence vote
falls short of 55 percent. End comment.) The GoM would be
likely to try to capitalize on those divisions, and
majority support for independence, to launch a new model
for relations between the republics, along the lines of the
previously proposed Union of Independent States.


7. (SBU) Montenegrin President Vujanovic has reiterated
that while a referendum result below 55 percent but above
50 percent would mean that the legal conditions of
independence had not been met, it would at the same time
imply that the citizens had presented their will that the
state union be "cancelled." PM Djukanovic has said such a
result would necessitate an EU-mediated negotiation on
relations between Podgorica and Belgrade. The GoM has
indicated that a first step could be withdrawal of
Montenegrin officials from State Union institutions. It
would likely seek support for such moves (or even
diplomatic recognition) from EU states that it sees as
sympathetic to its position, particularly Slovenia,
Hungary, Austria, and the Baltic states. SaM President
Marovic has drafted a proposal to transform the State Union
into a union of states in the event of such an outcome,
abolishing the State Union institutions (Parliament,
Council of Ministers (including defense and foreign
affairs),Court and Supreme Defense Council). The
Constitution and laws do not appear to bar this outcome,
which would heighten the autonomy of Montenegro, to a point
just shy of independence. With the GoM highly unlikely to
accept the status quo ante vox, GoS resistance to greater
autonomy could elicit heightened and unilateral GoM steps,
with an unclear (although in all likelihood essentially
peaceful) end state, particularly as to the international
status and personality of Montenegro.

Below 50 Percent: An Unlikely Continued State Union
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Informed observers and opinion polls alike see
little chance that "no" votes will outnumber "yes" votes on
May 21. PM Djukanovic has said he would resign in such an
eventuality, which would presumably permit the pro-Union
bloc to lead discussions on shaping the future State Union.

POLT