Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE679
2006-05-03 08:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: TENSIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
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DE RUEHBW #0679/01 1230852
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R 030852Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8489
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000679 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: TENSIONS
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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 655

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000679

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: TENSIONS
UNWIND

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 655


1. (SBU) Summary: Political tensions relaxed after both
blocs realized that they had "gone too far" in the past
week. In the wake of the heavily publicized opposition trip
to Washington, strong public and private statements by
Ambassador Polt and the Consulate cautioned politicians
against efforts to draw the USG inappropriately into the
referendum issue. The Republic Referendum Commission
resumed work, after the release from detention of a pro-
Union bloc commission member, suspected of fraudulent voter
registrations. A public poll showed independence getting
just over the required 55 percent of votes. Open voter
registration ended April 26 with a record 479,523 electors
enrolled. The Radical leadership said his party would join
the pro-Union campaign only if invited. End summary.

Political Tensions Relax - But Aren't Gone
--------------


2. (SBU) Podgorica PO met April 26 with EU Envoy Miroslav
Lajcak, who was in Podgorica for one day in an attempt to
lower the temperature of the campaign. He said he had
asked both Djukanovic and Bulatovic and their respective
teams to "calm down." He believes his advice will be
heeded, and that they both understand they have gone too
far, particularly in connection with the scandal involving
election commission member Nikola Medojevic (para 7). When
Medojevic was released, some Montenegrin press gave Lajcak
the credit, although he modestly denied to PO any direct
responsibility for it. He did concede, however, that his
occasional visits provided a convenient and effective way
for the sides to retreat from the brink without losing
face.


3. (SBU) Lajcak reported that Djukanovic says Serbian PM
Kostunica is "fully focused" on Montenegro, since he thinks
he can still affect the outcome of the referendum -- unlike
in Kosovo, about which, so Djukanovic, Kostunica has mostly
given up hope. This obsession with Montenegro, Djukanovic
believes, may lead Kostunica to try increasingly desperate
tricks as the campaign progresses. Lajcak noted that he
fully agreed with Djukanovic's assessment. Lajcak added
that what Kostunica and the pro-Union side don't understand
is that even if they succeed in defeating Djukanovic, "they

can't get rid of the young, progressive, intelligent half
of the population that supports him." Comment: The pro-
Unionists, who have counted so fervently on having EU High
Representative Solana secretly pulling for them, would be
crushed to hear Solana's Special Envoy express such
sentiments. End comment.


4. (SBU) Party leaders appear to have the sent the message
out to cool tempers. Poloff's meeting April 26 with the
pro-Union mayor and council of Herceg Novi (on the Croatian
border) began with an emphasis on consensus and cooperation
across party lines. Angers soon flared when the Social
Democratic (SDP) councilor (pro-Independence) accused the
city government of misspending funds to support pro-Union
sentiment, an accusation hotly refuted by the People's
Party (NS) caucus head. The mayor and council speaker
(both SNP) moved promptly to quiet matters.

Ambassador, Consulate Warn Politicians
--------------


5. (U) In a concerted effort, Ambassador Polt and the
Consulate publicly and privately warned Montenegrin
politicians who, over the past week, claimed to have USG
support for, inter alia, efforts to displace PM Djukanovic.
Most of the Montenegrin media prominently carried
Ambassador Polt's April 26 interview with Belgrade news
agency Beta highlighting his statement that the recent
visit of the Montenegrin opposition delegation to the
United States was neither official, nor organized as an
invitation by the U.S. Unfortunately, Anti-government
daily "Dan" was the only daily newspaper which did not
mention the interview. Dan was the daily that first
"broke" the story about the "official" invitation to the
Department.


6. (SBU) On April 27, Consulate met separately with Dragan
Soc of the People's Party (NS),and Nebojsa Medojevic, head
of the proto-party Group for Changes (GZP). Both had
prominently claimed that the April 20-21 visit of the
"Alternative Four" to Washington marked a change in USG
policy, to support of forces opposed to PM Djukanovic. Soc

BELGRADE 00000679 002 OF 002


quickly, even peremptorily, conceded that his statements
were in error, and contrary to the USG's well-known
position of neutrality on the outcome of the referendum and
its oft-stated position that only the USG will make public
characterizations of its position. Medojevic agreed that no
official invitation had been extended, but clearly failed
to grasp our request that he not characterize the USG
position.

Republic Referendum Commission Resumes Work
--------------


7. (U) The Republic Referendum Commission resumed work
April 26, after it had adjourned without activity on April
25 when the eight pro-Union commission members failed to
appear. The pro-Union bloc absence was in protest of the
arrest of one of its members for allegedly forging powers
of attorney in connection with voter registrations (Ref).
The member was quickly released from detention. After
Commission Chair Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia) and EU Envoy
Lajcak (Slovakia) expressed concerns about the arrest and
the need for commission members to avoid conflicts of
interest, the pro-Union members attended the next
Commission session.


8. (SBU) Comment: For now, the threat of a boycott has
receded. Consulate's reading of the referendum law,
supported by the local lawyer's association and OSCE/ODIHR
is that legally the commission can function even if the
pro-Union bloc boycotts. Such an outcome is not desirable
as tending toward political instability and lowered support
for the results of the referendum vote. End comment.

Poll Shows Independence - Barely
--------------


9. (U) According to a poll conducted April 14 to 21
throughout Montenegro, independence is supported by 55.9
percent while 44.1 percent are against. The law requires
independence to be supported by 55 percent of valid votes
cast to be passed. The poll's margin of error is 3.5
percent.

Voter Registration Ends
--------------


10. (U) Voter registration ended April 26, with a record
479,523 electors enrolled. Podgorica has 126,932 voters.
Further adjustments and enrollments can only be made by the
Administrative Court, through May 12.

Radicals on Sidelines
--------------


11. (SBU) Deputy President of Serb Radical Party (SRS)
Tomislav Nikolic announced publicly April 26 that, unless
invited by the pro-Union bloc, he would not get directly
involved in the campaign, although he would support the
Union by his statements in Belgrade. Comment: In early
March, the Consulate had cautioned the pro-Union bloc
leadership in the Socialist People's Party (SNP) that if
they include the Radicals in their coalition, the USG would
view that step with concern. SNP has subsequently confirmed
to us that they are acting in accordance with that message.
End comment.

POLT