Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE655
2006-04-26 15:54:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0655/01 1161554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261554Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8459
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000655 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK
MOUNTAIN, RED FACES

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 615

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000655

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK
MOUNTAIN, RED FACES

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 615


1. (SBU) Summary: Missteps and misstatements dogged the
pro-Union campaign last week. On April 24, police arrested
one of eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum
Commission on suspicion of falsifying voter registrations.
Prosecution was approved by the State Prosecutor. No pro-
Union members of the Commission attended its meeting on
April 25. Two stories implying USG support for the
Unionists - an "urgent invitation" for four anti-Djukanovic
(but not all pro-Union) leaders to meet with State EUR A/S
Fried, and an alleged DEA report "warning" of negative
effects from potential Montenegrin independence - were both
refuted by the USG. The local NGO Center for Democratic
Transition (CDT) noted publicly that the pro-Union bloc had
refused to sign a Code of Conduct. Group for Changes (GZP),
an anti-Djukanovic "proto-party," saw its leadership split
when GZP head Medojevic adamantly refused to allow GZP to
endorse independence (which he personally supports). With
their strategy focusing on GoM corruption astray, the pro-
Union bloc may again be considering a boycott of the
referendum bodies. End summary.

Dead Voters?
--------------


2. (U) Nikola Medojevic (SNS - Serb People's Party) one of
eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum
Commission, was arrested April 24 on suspicion of
falsifying voter registration data in 16 cases - including
seeking the registration of a recently deceased
person. Police are investigating another 2000 voter
registration files. Two others, including a member of the
Main Board of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and a
lawyer for SNP, were arrested in the same case. Prosecution
was approved by the State Prosecutor. While the Prosecutor
was appointed by the GoM, she has a track record of
professionalism and independence, including approving the
prosecution of pro-GoM activists for alleged vote buying in
the "Zeta film" case.


3. (SBU) The Republic Referendum Commission has seventeen
members: eight pro-Independence, eight pro-Union, with an
international (Slovak) chair. The blocs have voted along
strict partisan lines, requiring the chair to break ties.

The Commission met on April 25, but without the presence of
the pro-Union members. The Commission decided not to meet
again until the pro-Union members reappear. Commission
Chair Ambassador Lipka said that the court should have
exercised more discretion in the present case, and that
that there was no need for immediate arrest. Lipka said
that the effect of a pro-Union boycott was still a
hypothetical question, which he did not wish to answer.
Comment: The arrests may yet lead to the threatened pro-
Union boycott of the referendum bodies. End comment.

No Invitation
--------------


4. (U) On April 19, Podgorica anti-government daily "Dan"
headlined a report that the "Alternative Four" had been
invited by Secretary Rice, through EUR A/S Fried, to a
series of meetings with the "most influential people in the
State Department." The four, from groups opposed to PM
Djukanovic, include: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the
Socialist People's Party (SNP) and the pro-union bloc;
Executive Director of the NGO and "proto-party" "Group for
Changes" Nebojsa Medojevic; former Montenegrin Minister of
Interior Andrija Jovicevic; and former FRY Ambassador to
Italy Miodrag Lekic. The purpose of the meetings was
allegedly to discuss the referendum and a post-referendum
Montenegro, causing Dragan Soc, former head of the People's
Party (NS),to proclaim that "the sole fact that, at this
moment, the State Department is inviting these people for
consultations indicates that they estimate that PM
Djukanovic will lose in the referendum and exit the
political scene" and that by doing so, the Department "has
indicated they should now talk to those who will take over
the future leadership of Montenegro."


5. (U) Later on April 19, Consulate Podgorica gave several
statements to Montenegrin media, clarifying that there had
been no invitation by the Department, that the group would
not meet with A/S Fried, and that, at the request of the
SaM embassy in Washington, a meeting at an appropriate
level would be arranged. Refuting Soc publicly, Consulate
reiterated that the USG is strictly neutral on the outcome

BELGRADE 00000655 002 OF 002


of the referendum, that the USG has always met with a wide
variety of interlocutors in Montenegro, and that such
meetings do not imply support of a particular point of
view. Montenegrin media extensively covered and
editorialized on the correction the following day. The
story and corrections (without embellishment) lagged by one
day in the Belgrade press.

No DEA Report
--------------


6. (U) Even before the "invitation" story broke, pro-Union
press in Belgrade and Montenegro reported on a supposed
report from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). The
media, citing "anonymous sources in the Serbian police,"
said the DEA had warned that Montenegrin independence and
Kosovo separation would cause mafia wars in Montenegro and
an increased level of crime. The Consulate and Embassy
confirmed with the DEA country office in Rome that "the DEA
has not published and/or conducted any such 'study'", and
answered press inquiries on April 20 noting that the
Consulate was not aware of any such study.

No Code of Conduct
--------------


7. (U) The local independent NGO, Center for Democratic
Transition (CDT),noted publicly on April 20 that the pro-
Union bloc had refused to sign a Code of Conduct. The same
code has become a tradition in Montenegrin elections since
2001, and the pro-Independence bloc was again willing to
sign. Pro-Union leaders Bulatovic and Popovic told
Consulate they had no problem with the text of the Code and
would sign if anyone else were sponsoring it, but that they
wouldn't sign anything from CDT because it was "biased."
CDT's monitoring efforts are supported by USAID through a
sub-grant to NDI. CDT released a press statement, with
Consulate's permission, that the USG supported adherence by
both blocs to the Code.

No Unity - GZP
--------------


8. (SBU) On April 14, Svetozar Jovicevic resigned as
president of NGO (and "proto-party") Group for Changes
(GZP). Jovicevic had resigned after his call for the GZP
Executive Board to rally the organization's supporters to
vote in favor of Montenegrin independence was rejected. GZP
leader Nebojsa Medojevic, while personally pro-
independence, is unwilling to alienate the sizeable number
of GZP supporters who favor State Union. He has kept GZP
on the fence waiting for a chance to dislodge PM Djukanovic
in post-referendum elections. Jovicevic's departure has
precipitated a split in GZP, as some other leading members
have followed his example.

New Film
--------------


9. (U) These missteps overshadow the release by SNP to the
local pro-Union newspaper "Dan" on April 20 of another film
showing the DPS activist from the "Zeta film" again
allegedly buying votes. Consulate, and ODIHR, had earlier
advised the SNP and the pro-Union bloc that evidence of
alleged criminal violations of the referendum law, such as
vote buying, should be provided to the appropriate
authorities that are empowered to investigate and prosecute
such.

POLT