Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE623
2006-04-20 14:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

Bulatovic Threatens Boycott

Tags:  PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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R 201437Z APR 06
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BELGRADE 000623 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: Bulatovic Threatens Boycott

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000623

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SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: Bulatovic Threatens Boycott


1. (SBU) Summary: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the
Socialist People's Party (SNP),has leveled accusations
of impropriety and voter fraud against Montenegrin
Prime Minister Djukanovic in the run-up to the
independence referendum on May 21. He added that he is
concerned over the international community's oversight
of the process and claims to be considering boycotting
the referendum. We doubt he will go that far. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) On April 13, Bulatovic met with the
Ambassador to discuss the Montenegrin referendum. The
SNP leader claimed that Djukanovic was actively
attempting to buy votes in advance of the May
referendum. He said that the SNP had another film (in
addition to the previously released Zeta film),showing
members of Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists
(DPS) bribing pro-Union supporters to abstain. He
further claimed that the DPS had bought 5,000 ID cards
of pro-Union supporters and planned to purchase another
15,000 (at 200 euros a piece),which he insinuated
would prevent them from voting. Bulatovic noted that
he had seen a "bag of ID cards" that came from DPS
headquarters, which he had photographed and planned to
present publicly. Lastly, he accused the government of
removing pro-Union supporters from election lists and
not collecting on past due electric bills.


3. (SBU) Bulatovic said he had no faith in the system
established by the March referendum law and was
reluctant to continue working with the referendum
commission and other established oversight committees.
He said that he would continue to cooperate with the
international community for the now, but that he and
his allies would need to adopt a "strong decision" (a
euphemism for boycott) in response to "all the crimes
committed by Djukanovic." He concluded that he would
probably leave politics if the referendum passes.


4. (SBU) Podgorica Principal Officer followed up with
Bulatovic and People's Party (NS) President Predrag
Popovic on April 17. Bulatovic raised other alleged
violations of the law, pointing to the commingling of
GoM and pro-Independence assets and actions. When
asked what action most placed a democratic referendum
in jeopardy, Bulatovic again stressed allegations that
the DPS is buying ID cards. P.O. urged the bloc
leaders to bring all such evidence of the buying of ID
cards to the appropriate authorities, reminding him
that the international community had neither the
ability nor mandate to investigate such allegations.


5. (SBU) Comment: Instead of making a strong push to
defeat the referendum--which all polls suggest remains
possible--pro-Union forces are looking for a way to
"save face" through protest. Most observers expect
some campaign abuses to occur in the run-up to May 21,
but most of Bulatovic's accusations seem questionable.
For example, ID cards are not needed to vote (several
different forms of identification can be used),so
collecting them would have no impact. Additionally, ID
cards are needed for everyday life--such as collecting
a pension--which would put an arduous burden on those
who supposedly surrendered them. Pro-Union forces
probably hope the international community will
legitimize their allegations against the DPS by
investigating each accusation, which would weaken the
pro-Independence movement. We will continue to
strongly encourage the opposition to participate in the
referendum and speak out against actual campaign
violations, while refusing to be dragged into the
mudslinging between the two sides.
POLT