Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE530
2006-04-05 06:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
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DE RUEHBW #0530/01 0950652
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050652Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8313
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000530 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT
VOTE EXPECTED


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: A) Belgrade 489 B) Belgrade 521

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000530

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT
VOTE EXPECTED


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: A) Belgrade 489 B) Belgrade 521


1. (SBU) Summary: Up to 70 percent of Montenegro's 20,000
ex patria voters are expected to return for the referendum
vote, with twice as many supporting independence as union.
The "Zeta film" of alleged vote buying by the GoM is fading
from attention, despite opposition efforts to keep it in
the limelight. The GoM is consolidating already strong
minority support for independence by promising passage of a
new Law on Minorities by April 30 (details Ref B).
Distribution of campaign moneys has been delayed by a
dispute over the mandate of the finance committee.
Ambassador Polt's call for a fair referendum campaign got
wide coverage. OSCE/ODHIR has started its long-term
observation of the referendum, with plans for regular
briefings of the public and diplomatic corps. End summary.

Return of the Prodigals?
--------------


2. (U) The Union of Montenegrin Associations in Europe
(SCAE) told local press that about 20,000 Montenegrin
voters live abroad, out of a total of 470,000 voters (3000
names were added to the rolls in March). Most of the
expatriates live in Europe and the USA. The pro-
independence bloc calculates on getting 8 to 10 thousand
ex-pat votes, while the pro-Union bloc foresees only 2 to 4
thousand votes from abroad. Ex-pat voters must be
physically present at their place of registration to vote.

"Zeta Film" Fading
--------------


3. (SBU) The pro-Union parties are increasingly dismayed by
the dismissive public reaction to their March 23 release of
a "secret" film which purportedly depicts vote buying by
the Democratic Party of Socialists - DPS (main GoM party).
The opposition complains that more attention has been paid
to how the film was made (by a discharged police officer
who was suspended after allegations that he faked his
university degree),edited, and distributed (by the
opposition to the press),than to the purported vote buying
depicted. Having failed to gain traction with the public,
SNP and two smaller opposition parties (NS and DSS) are
threatening to "withdraw" from the vote, and calling for
the EU to intervene. When the Montenegrin Referendum

Commission predictably deadlocked on the film, commission
head Slovak Ambassador Lipka said he would not use his vote
to break the deadlock. Lipka, the U.S. Consulate and the
head of the new OSCE/ODHIR mission, Jorgen Grunnet, all
said publicly that investigating the "Zeta film" was under
the competence of the relevant Montenegrin authorities,
Lipka and Grunnet specifically citing the State Prosecutor
(Ref A). EU HR Solana's spokesperson had no comment.

Campaign Money Distributed a Month Late
--------------


4. (SBU) Late on April 3, the finance committee finally
agreed on its rules of procedure. The rules were to be
agreed by March 5, three days after adopting the law on
referendum. The distribution of two million Euros in
campaign financing (1 million per bloc) was held up until
the rules were agreed, resulting in the noticeable quiet in
the first 30 days of the 75 day campaign period. The pro-
Union bloc is expected to complain, although the delay was
primarily caused by the opposition's demand that the
finance committee be empowered to look at all financial
expenditures that might affect the vote, such as a recently
declared tax holiday on car transfers, and electricity
bills (see the "Zeta film" allegations, Ref A),and not
just campaign financing as such.

Ambassador Polt Calls for Fair Referendum Campaign
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Ambassador Polt, in a statement given wide coverage
by the Serbian and Montenegro media, called on both sides
in the Montenegrin referendum process to campaign in a fair
and transparent manner, abiding by an ethical code they
agreed upon. The decision on Montenegro's future status is
to be "whatever the Montenegrin people decide," the media
quotes Ambassador Polt.

Growing Support in Serbia for Media Code of Conduct
-------------- --------------


BELGRADE 00000530 002 OF 002



6. (U) Head of the pro-Union bloc, Predrag Bulatovic (SNP)
and the Independent Association of Journalists of Serbia
last week called upon all media in Serbia to sign the
voluntary code of conduct for the referendum. So far, 8 of
21 Serbian media outlets widely available in Montenegro
have signed, including Radio-Television Serbia (RTS).
Ironically, Bulatovic's call to the journalists to sign
occurred at the same time his party became the last hold-
out not to sign a similar code of conduct for political
parties.

OSCE/ODHIR Opens Mission
--------------


7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODHIR monitoring mission has opened its
offices in Podgorica, headed by Jorgen Grunnet (Denmark).
The long-term observation team of 20 members arrives the
week of April 3. In a briefing for the local diplomatic
corps April 3, Grunnet said ODHIR plans two public interim
reports before May 21, and regular private briefings for
the diplomatic corps - we have proposed that the latter be
at least bi-weekly. ODHIR said three parliamentary
delegations are coming to observe the election, plus what
ODHIR said was "a number" from the U.S. Congress. The
organizations plan a joint press conference for Monday May
22 on the referendum results.

The Day After, Continued
--------------


8. (SBU) EU Envoy Lajcak told a local news agency that the
GoS does not want to talk directly to the GoM about
relations after the referendum, and that while they should
find some other way to communicate, he was not the
negotiator between the two republics.

POLT