Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE499
2006-03-29 11:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity

Tags:  PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5572
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBW #0499/01 0881156
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 291156Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8273
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000499 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: MAR 28, 2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity
Needed to Overcome Political Brinkmanship

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4
(b,d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000499

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: MAR 28, 2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity
Needed to Overcome Political Brinkmanship

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4
(b,d)

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) The Montenegrin referendum campaign has begun
to heat up and all signs indicate a no-holds barred
campaign with both sides willing to exploit existing
tensions to get their preferred outcome. We are
coordinating closely with EU Special Envoy Lajcak in
the run up to the May 21 vote. The international
community will need to remain united and play an active
role to ensure that the referendum's rules are
followed. End Summary.

Lajcak Expecting Tough Campaign
--------------


2. (SBU) Ambassador Lajcak, the EU's special envoy for
the Montenegrin referendum, told the Ambassador on
March 24 that he expects the campaign will be somewhat
"dirty." Allegations of vote buying have already begun
and "provocations of a larger nature are probable."
Belgrade, Lajcak suggested, clearly wants to have an
open hand on how to manage the news, as seen in the
fact that only four of 21 Serbian media outlets
available in Montenegro signed the media code of
conduct. (Note: As of March 27, eight of 21 outlets
have signed, including the largest, Radio-Television
Serbia. End note.) The questionable details
surrounding the recent allegation of DPS "vote-buying,"
and the sensational and provocative way it played in
the Belgrade press, is a clear example of the kind of
mischief that could be expected in the months ahead.


3. (C) Lajcak said that he and EU representatives have
continued to insist to pro-Independence leaders that
the 55 percent supermajority is inviolate and that
there is no "grey zone" (a pro-independence majority
below 55 percent). While some EU members, namely
Slovenia and Hungary, have indicated they would
recognize Montenegrin independence as long as a
majority approves the referendum, the EU was working to
ensure that all of its members remain faithful to the
EU-brokered arrangement. Lajcak aknowledged the need

for the international community to be prepared to fend
off efforts by Prime Minister Djukanovic to exploit
divisions in the IC in the case of a grey zone result.

Echoes of the Past: The Heavy Hand of Belgrade
-------------- -


4. (SBU) Lajcak said that Prime Minister Kostunica is
coordinating closely with the pro-Union opposition on
ways to affect the May outcome. He officially unveiled
his campaign to counter the pro-Independence movement
this week and, opined Lajcak, Kostunica clearly sees a
potential victory in Montenegro as a way to improve his
position in Serbia. Kostunica and the Montenegrin
opposition view a pro-Union result as the first step in
bringing down Djukanovic in parliamentary elections
scheduled for October 2006.


5. (SBU) Lajcak confirmed his lack of success in
getting Podgorica and Belgrade to begin a dialogue
about their post-referendum relationship, regardless of
the outcome. Kostunica has rejected all dialogue with
Djukanovic on any issue until after May 21, convinced
that Djukanovic would use the discussions between the
two republics to his advantage. In either scenario
Lajcak sees it unlikely that there would be any
productive engagement immediately following the vote.
This is further complicated by the fact that the
opposition does not support Belgrade's goal of creating
a more centralized state dominated by Serbia. If
Djukanovic falls short, Lajcak believes all parties
will focus on the fall parliamentary elections and
leave possible changes in the State Union for the
future.

Sign of Things to Come: Voter Fraud and Secret Services
-------------- --------------


6. (U) On March 23 and 24, Serbian press, primarily
those which the GOS heavily influences, widely covered
an alleged video of members of the ruling Democratic
Party of Socialists (DPS) trying to bribe a citizen in
Montenegro into casting a pro-independence vote. The
two DPS activists claim that Vasilje Mijovic, a pro-
Union activist who played a role in disseminating the
video, set them up. The Montenegrin Interior Ministry

BELGRADE 00000499 002 OF 002


had fired Mijovic 10 days earlier for forging his
college diploma. Mijovic also was one of the founders
of the Red Berets, a notorious Serb paramilitary group
that was responsible for human rights abuses and large
scale organized crime activities during the nineties.
He is rumored to be tied to Serbian secret services.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) With only two months left before the
Montenegrin referendum the rules are set and both sides
are gearing up for the tough race to the finish.
Tensions are high and neither Belgrade nor Podgorica
will hesitate to exploit opportunities -- including
irresponsible press play -- to produce a favorable
outcome in one direction or the other. As the
referendum approaches, we will supplement our presence
on the ground in Montenegro to urge fair play, and to
continue working closely with the EU to encourage all
parties to act responsibly and follow the guidelines
outlined in the new referendum law.
POLT