Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE427
2006-03-17 15:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
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DE RUEHBW #0427/01 0761513
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171513Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8211
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000427 

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL
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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL
COMMISSIONS SELECTED (Corrected Copy)


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Ref: Belgrade 400


1. (SBU) Summary: Both blocs began quiet door-to-door
campaigns, unmarked by the death of Milosevic. The
Parliament selected members of the Referendum (electoral)
Commissions at all levels, the last legal step needed. OSCE
has recommended that 20 long-term observers be deployed
from early April, with 200 on the day of the vote. Minority
support for independence appears to be firming, while PM
Djukanovic has taken the lead in defining the meaning of
the referendum: independence or a unitary state (run from
Belgrade). Meanwhile, a survey showed voters most
interested in learning, from experts not politicians, what
the independence options mean for daily quality of life
issues. End summary.

Electoral Commissions Selected
--------------


2. (U) The Montenegrin Parliament on March 15 appointed
Slovakian diplomat Frantisek Lipka as the President of the
Republic Referendum Commission yesterday, the Montenegrin
press reports. The Parliament also appointed members of the
referendum commissions at both the central and local level,
as well as members of the parliamentary boards for media
monitoring and campaign financing. The commissions are
mixed, with representatives from pro-Independence and pro-
Union blocs. As agreed, Lipka was proposed by the EU
special envoy Miroslav Lajcak. Lipka has a PhD in Slavic
languages and was Ambassador of Czechoslovakia to FRY in
the nineties.

OSCE Releases Needs Assessment for Referendum Monitoring
-------------- --------------


3. (U) The OSCE/ODHIR Needs Assessment Mission recommended
on March 14 that the referendum observation mission should
be deployed before the end of March. The report recommends
that in addition to a core team of experts, the mission
should comprise 20 long-term observers to be deployed
throughout Montenegro in early April. The mission should
be enhanced by some 200 short-term observers for
observation on the referendum day. (Full report e-mailed
to EUR/SCE.)

Albanian Vote
--------------


4. (SBU) Poloff and visiting SaM deskoff met with the
leaders of Montenegro's two parliamentary Albanian parties

on March 16. Mehmet Barthi (Democratic League in
Montenegro - DSCG) said that ethnic Albanians "cannot be
satisfied" with the current situation. He noted that the
DSCG was meeting later that day with PM Djukanovic, to
discuss conditions for Albanians -- "if there is no
movement, the DSCG will not be active participants" in the
referendum campaign. Barthi added however that the DSCG
"did not wish to hamper" the pro-Independence bloc.
Comment: Barthi's threat to call for his voters to boycott
the referendum vote, over conditions for Albanians
(including municipality status for Tuzi, a suburb of
Podgorica),has faded as expected. End comment.


5. (SBU) Ferhat Dinosa (Democratic Union of Albanians -
DUA),who is close to Djukanovic's DPS, expected that "no
Albanian will listen to a call to boycott" the referendum.
For Albanians and other minorities, Dinosa said
independence was the only way to avoid "the disappearance
of Montenegro" and to end "the dream of a greater Serbia."
Consequently, he expects that over 90 percent of the
minority vote will go for independence, and that
independence will get more than the required 55 percent of
the total vote.

Pollster Gives Opinion on Referendum
--------------


6. (SBU) Principal Officer and visiting SaM deskoff met
with Srdjan Darmanovic of the NGO Center for Democracy and
Human Rights on March 16. CEDEM plans to conduct one more
poll before the vote, releasing the results in late April.
He was confident that independence would gain 55 percent of
votes cast, if turnout was at or below the historic high of
82 percent of registered voters. He says his data until
now have shown that Bosniak, Muslim, and Albanian
minorities will vote solidly for independence,
notwithstanding political posturing from Barthi and Serbian

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Sandzak Muslim leader Ugljanin.

Opposition Leader Meets With Solana
--------------


7. (U) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the Socialist People's
Party (SNP) and head of the pro-Union bloc, met with EU HR
Javier Solana in Brussels March 14. (PM Djukanovic and
President Marovic met with Solana last week, ref.) Solana
and Bulatovic agreed that there is no such a thing as a
"gray zone," but only a law which must be implemented
fully. Bulatovic added he believed that the GoS should not
discuss relations between the two republics with the GoM
before the referendum is held, a position with which Solana
disagreed.

State Prosecutor Investigating Alleged Voting Fraud
-------------- --------------


8. (U) The State Prosecutor, Vesna Medenica, has said that
her office will investigate allegations made in the press
and on the floor of Parliament that political parties are
purchasing identification documents or applying pressure to
citizens regarding voting in the referendum. She said that
so far, no prosecutors have informed her of receiving
reports of such pressure. Independent NGO Center for
Democratic Transition (CDT) (a USAID subgrantee through
NDI) confirmed to Consulate media reports that it has also
not received reports of i.d. cards being bought. They added
that such an action would be "senseless," as driver's
licenses and passports can also be used to verify a voter's
identity. Comment: It is commonly believed that the ruling
DPS "rented" i.d. cards from potential opposition voters in
the 2002 elections, to hold down the opposition vote (no
i.d. means no vote). The action was seen as unfair, but not
illegal so long as no attempt was made to use the "rented"
card to vote; as described by prosecutor Medenica, 2003
changes in the law now make such "rental" illegal. End
comment.

Djukanovic Says Vote is For Independence or Unitary State
-------------- --------------


9. (U) PM Djukanovic, speaking with local media March 15,
said that in the forthcoming referendum, citizens would in
fact vote for either independence or a federation, adding
that a federation would soon develop into a unitary state
in which Montenegro "would be a faceless part of the state
of Serbia and would even be left without its name." He
rejected Predrag Bulatovic's (SNP) assertion that a pro-
Union vote would leave the present State Union unchanged.
He noted that the pro-Union People's Party (NS) already
announced that it sought to bring back the dinar, and
stressed that the authorities in Belgrade are unwilling to
discuss the post-referendum relationship between Montenegro
and Serbia.

PM Distances Self from FM on "Grey Zone" Scenario
-------------- --------------

10. (U) At a press conference March 15, PM Milo Djukanovic
distanced himself from statements recently made by
Montenegrin FM Miodrag Vlahovic that Montenegro would
withdraw its representatives from Belgrade if the
referendum result fell within the gray zone of 50 and 55
percent. Calling the withdrawal statement Vlahovic's
"personal position," Djukanovic added that in the case of a
"gray zone" result, the authorities "will consider all
possible solutions." The PM concluded that "in my opinion,
independence is supported by more than 55 per cent."

Citizens Most Concerned about Quality of Life Issues
-------------- --------------


11. (U) A survey released by the Montenegro Media Institute
showed that citizens expect the media to report about basic
quality of life issues during the referendum campaign and
that experts, not politicians, should elaborate on those
issues for the public. The citizens are most interested in
an explanation of what will happen if the referendum
succeeds or fails regarding: access to medical treatment,
living standards, currency, inflation rate, conditions for
favorable credits, employment opportunities, food prices,
pensions, new road construction, tourism development, visas
for foreign travel, and studying in Serbia.

Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Two weeks into the referendum campaign, political

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discourse within Montenegro remains civil, even as both
blocs (with the possible exception of the SNP) make efforts
to draw clear distinctions between the outcomes. The death
of Slobodan Milosevic garnered little notice, after the
initial shock of the announcement. The agreed 80-day
campaign period is perhaps longer than could be seriously
sustained by the blocs, especially the pro-Union bloc, and
the pace, and perhaps the temperature of the discussion, is
expected to increase as May 21 referendum date nears.

POLT