Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE406
2006-03-15 13:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

Serbia: The Democratic Party's Future Challenge

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000406 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: The Democratic Party's Future Challenge


Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000406

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: The Democratic Party's Future Challenge


Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) A recent Democratic Party (DS) Party Congress in
Belgrade provided further evidence that the DS is not doing
enough to strengthen its party machinery for the next
parliamentary elections. Polling data suggests that the
party has lost support over the last year because of
cautious and often counterproductive tactics. The current
strategy -- built around a promise of early elections and
fears of the radicals coming to power -- does not address
the real problems facing the party in the near future. End
Summary

--------------
Sound and Fury, Signifying?
--------------


2. (SBU) Serbian President Tadic continued to consolidate
his control of the Democratic Party at a splashy DS party
congress on February 18 that did little to address serious
weaknesses in the party's structure and public image.
Party elections -- carefully scripted beforehand -- favored
middling insiders from the party bureaucracy who fended off
a last minute effort by the former privatization minister
to add an independent voice to the party's leadership.


3. (U) Tadic won 1,880 votes out of 1,931 delegates,
amidst thunderous music from "Lord of the Rings," film
clips showing some of his more dramatic public appearances,
and an overall slick, made-for-TV production. Delegates
confirmed an uninspiring slate for the rest of the party
leadership, drawn from status quo insiders that had been
carefully put together before the convention began. Head
of the DS Parliamentary caucus Dusan Petrovic and party
fund raiser Dragan Sutanovac -- the main proponents of the
discredited DS parliamentary boycott -- joined Vojvodina
President Bojan Pajtic (at least in part responsible for
the DS's shocking loss of the Novi Sad Mayoral race in
local elections in 2004),writer Vida Ognjenovic, and
Belgrade Mayor Nenad Bogdanovic as DS Vice Presidents.

--------------
Control?
--------------


4. (SBU) Bogdanovic, Tadic's chief rival in the last party
election almost lost a last minute challenge by former
minister of privatization Alexsander Vlahovic. Tadic
supported Bogdanovic, whose control of the 700 million Euro
Belgrade city budget makes him a critical link in the
party's financing. Bogdanovic's standing in the party has
fallen recently because of persistent rumors of corruption.

Support for Vlahovic -- he gave a rousing address and came
within 400 votes of beating Bogdanovic -- was likely an
effort by the party faithful to insert a more independent
voice in the party leadership. Our sources tell us
Vlahovic and his group of independent technocrat
professionals will likely be punished for their
unauthorized campaign. (Comment:We will meet with them in
the days ahead and look for ways to encourage the party to
use their expertise to help make the DS stronger. End
Comment)


5. (U) The push for centralized control in the DS has
solidified Boris Tadic's hold on the Party leadership but
to the detriment of its numbers. A push by controversial
party activist Ceda Jovanovic, a key figure during the
Djindic years, to promote a more aggressive pro-reform and
less nationalistic platform in 2004 prompted the Party to
eject him and his followers from the party. Jovanovic, who
sees Tony Blair as his role model, was left with no option
but to start his own Liberal Demoractic Party (LDP),which
polls indicate has already garnered four percent support in
the northern region of Vojvodina, a traditional DS strong-
hold.


6. Even after the DS lost control of the second and third
largest cities in local elections in 2004 (Novi Sad to the
Radicals, and Nis to a Socialist/New Serbia anti-American
populist) it did little to reenergize its largest local
chapters. Reputable pollster, Milka Pozugaca (SCAN
agency),told us recently that the DS local chapter in Novi
Sad has simply been "disbanded." The office in Nis is also
in disarray after having botched a recall election against
the Mayor there, an important local initiative that was all
but ignored by party headquarters.

--------------
Strategic Flaw
--------------


7. (SBU) Pozugaca says a trend analysis of the polling data
over the last eighteen months reveals a glaring weakness in
the DS's approach. Co-habitation with the current DSS
government on Kosovo and other issues has been unpopular
with the more progressive voters in the party who question
Kostunica's democratic credentials. As these voters have
dropped out of politics (polls here tend to pick up only
those who intend to vote) DS numbers have gone down and the
Radicals have gotten relatively stronger (their absolute
numbers have actually gone down). The LDP has begun to pick
up the most frustrated of these DS drop-outs and could
stand to pick up more if it begins to win converts.

--------------
Get out the vote, quiet on Coalitions
--------------


8. (SBU) Pozugaca says that the numbers suggest that the DS
will suffer the same fate as G-17 plus (currently in the
government) if it joins in coalition with the DSS before a
new election-- its numbers will dramatically decline. For
that reason she argues that the DS should not enter into
any pre-election agreement with the DSS before national
elections as that will only encourage its progressive
voters to stay home or vote for the LDP. This holds
equally true for the DSS with polls suggesting that up to
fifty percent of its supporters are likely not to show up
for elections. The numbers bear out Tadic's view that he
will benefit the most from an aggressive get out the vote
campaign; unfortunately, they also suggest that DS numbers
will head south quickly if it accepts least common
denominator policies in a coalition government with the
DSS.


9. (SBU) The new DS leadership has told us it will move
quickly to address its lingering problems. Petrovic told
poloff that the election of Pajtic and Ognjenovic represent
specific DS strategies to win the support of Vojvodinians
and women respectively. Petrovic said that the election of
Pajtic, the current premier of Vojvodina, will help the
party attract local voters from the region who seek to
retain and expand their province's autonomy. Petrovic also
noted that the DS has begun to heavily target women voters,
who tend to be less reactionary, and is developing women-
specific policies that the party hopes will attract
undecided female constituents.

--------------
Short on New Ideas
--------------


10. (SBU) Still the DS Congress did not reveal any bold
new thinking. Party insiders have told us that the
leadership has decided to end its parliamentary boycott --
polls show it to be a complete failure -- but are grappling
with how to do it gracefully. Tadic and other speakers at
the party congress focused on the history of the party,
especially during the nineties, and avoided discussion of
the DS' future or potential political strategies. Several
members complained to poloff about this shortcoming and
decried the excessive pageantry of the convention and
publication of the party's voluminous platform (rumored to
be nearly 1000 pages) as a waste of scant party resources
and an ineffective form of communicating with the
electorate. Many members while optimistic about the
party's future were frustrated with the DS's inability to
bring down the current government and deliver on its
promise of early elections.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Overall, the party congress continued to reflect
Tadic's strengths and weaknesses. His speech was full of
passion and energy -- the stuff that inspired voters during
his successful run for the Presidency in 2004. Tadic
challenged Kostunica to stop winking at the radicals and to
adopt the DS-declared strategy seeking to accentuate the
difference between extremist nationalists (SRS and SPS) and
progressive democrats. But Tadic failed to define the
specific policies that would mark the two sides of the
divide and his national unity position on Kosovo suggests
he has no problem joining Kostunica in the grey area in
between. The election of a conservative circle of yes men
to head the party further undermines the effort to promote
the DS as a bold choice for the future -- even party
insiders fear the new leadership will opt to protect their
own interests rather then taking the bold steps needed to
strengthen the party machinery. Not only are Tadic and his
party vice-presidents reluctant to be bolder, they see any
effort to do so as a threat to their leadership. We
continue to believe that the DS is the best promise for
Serbia's future and that Boris Tadic can be the charismatic
leader who can lead the way. In the weeks ahead we will be
working with NDI and IRI on practical ways we can help
Tadic and the DS live up to its potential.
POLT