Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE400
2006-03-14 11:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW SR 
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RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0400/01 0731106
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141106Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8175
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000400 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN
BEGINS, QUIETLY


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 322

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000400

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN
BEGINS, QUIETLY


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 322


1. (SBU) Summary: With the rules/law, date, and question
adopted last week (reftel),the campaign proper for
independence or union began. Solana met with MN PM
Djukanovic and SaM President Marovic this week. Both blocs
are reaching out beyond their core supporters -- the
independence bloc to the diaspora, and the pro-Union bloc
to the Radicals (SRS). Planning for international
observation of the referendum has begun. End summary.

PM Djukanovic Meets EU HR Solana
--------------


2. (U) PM Milo Djukanovic met with EU High Representative
Javier Solana in Brussels on March 8. Following the
meeting, Djukanovic stated that he was "completely certain"
that independence would win, and would be supported more
than 55 percent of the turnout. He also stated however that
"besides being convinced of victory in the referendum, he
was also thinking, as a serious and responsible politician"
about the consequences if the result was in the so-called
"grey zone" (between 50 and 55 percent). When Solana was
asked about the "grey zone," he said that the Referendum
Law was completely clear. Solana's envoy Ambassador
Miroslav Lajcak participated in the meeting.

SaM President Marovic Meets EU HR Solana
--------------


3. (U) As part of an official visit to Belgium, SaM
President Svetozar Marovic also met with Solana on March 9.
Marovic is a member of Djukanovic's DPS, and has stated
that while he publicly supports the DPS's call for an
independent Montenegro, he will continue as SaM President
through the referendum.

... and This Week, The Opposition Meets Solana
-------------- -


4. (U) Predrag BULATOVIC, head of the opposition Socialist
People's Party (SNP) and of the pro-Union bloc, will meet
with Solana on March 14.

Reaching Out to: The Diaspora
--------------


5. (U) Branko Lukovac, leader of the Independence Movement,
noted publicly that perhaps 130,000 Montenegrins live in
western Europe. He said another 10 to 20 thousand
Montenegrins, many from the dominantly pro-Independence
region of Plav (SE Montenegro),live in the U.S. (Note: The
2003 census showed only 13,800 persons in the Plav region,

an area that has experienced heavy emigration.) Lukovac
said that many of these Montenegrins have maintained their
legal residence in Montenegro and therefore retain their
voting rights. The minor opposition party, Democratic Serb
Party (DSS),countered that the last official count showed
only some 52,511 registered voters living outside of
Montenegro. The last official voters' registration list has
just over 466,000 names. (Comment: The Montenegrins
"disenfranchised" in Serbia by the Montenegrin electoral
law have not maintained their legal residence in
Montenegro. End comment.)

Reaching Out to: The Radicals (SRS)
--------------


6. (U) Local media reported that the pro-Union Coalition
leader, Predrag BULATOVIC, "expects" the Montenegro wing of
the Radical party to join the pro-State Union coalition in
the referendum campaign. BULATOVIC said the involvement of
any political forces from Serbia is not necessary, but that
he would support "that the voice of our Serbian colleagues
is also heard."


7. (SBU) Meeting with A/PO on March 6, BULATOVIC's deputy
Srda Bozovic said that members of the Radical party in
Montenegro, "as individuals", could support the pro-Union
coalition. He stated that Radicals would have no public
role in the coalition, e.g., would not speak at rallies.
He noted that as the Radicals have a potentially crucial
"five or ten thousand votes" in Montenegro, the pro-Union
bloc would not however shut them out. Bozovic nevertheless
had particularly harsh words for SRS leader Nikolic.

Media to Adopt Code of Conduct for Referendum

BELGRADE 00000400 002 OF 002


--------------


8. (U) The Montenegrin Union of Independent Broadcasting
Media (UNEM) announced March 6 that that it will organize a
round table for March 10, when a code of conduct regulating
the behavior of the Montenegrin media during the referendum
will be signed. UNEM announced that Serbian media
accessible on the territory of Montenegro will also be
invited to sign the document next week. The presidents of
the two Serbian journalist associations stated that Serbian
media should sign and observe the code.

Blocs Debate on Serbian TV
--------------


9. (U) Pro-Independence Montenegrin Parliament Speaker
Ranko Krivokapic (SDP) and leader of pro-Union bloc Predrag
BULATOVIC (SNP) debated Montenegrin independence on Serbian
Public Television (RTS) on March 7. Krivokapic was
confident that independence would be supported by more than
55 percent of votes cast. He rejected stories that
authorities will declare independence even if pro-
independence votes are less than 55 percent. BULATOVIC
stated that the real purpose behind independence was just
to gain immunity for PM Djukanovic, whom he said was under
investigation by the Italian and German courts (for tobacco
smuggling during UN sanctions). RTS was noticeably fair and
balanced in its moderation of the debate.

International Observation Begins
--------------

10.(U) OSCE/ODHIR's preliminary assessment team arrived in
Montenegro March 8. International and local organizations
and NGOs, as well as representatives of foreign countries,
are permitted by Montenegrin law to observe the campaign
and the referendum vote itself. OSCE/ODHIR will likely
issue its first preliminary report after the vote as soon
as noon local time the following day, Monday May 22. The
final report may take up to a month, but would not
contradict the preliminary report of results.


12. (SBU) USAID will provide USD 60,000 to its local
implementer, the National Democratic Institute (NDI),to
support local monitoring. NDI has been in Montenegro since
1999, working with USAID. NDI's local partner is the Center
for Democratic Transition (CDT). CDT has an excellent track
record in monitoring prior campaigns and votes in
Montenegro.


13. (SBU) The Consulate has begun planning for the U.S.
contribution to the monitoring effort on the day of the
referendum. Tentatively, a dozen teams will be deployed
throughout Montenegro, with dual accreditation from the USG
and OSCE. Over 1100 polling stations will open at 8 a.m.
May 21, closing 12 hours later.

POLT