MLADIC UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELGRADE 000277

SIPDIS

DOJ FOR ALEXANDRE

E.O. 12958: DECL: CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR ICTY
SUBJECT: MLADIC UPDATE

Classified By: CDA Roderick Moore, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite rampant press speculation, the GoS
continues to vehemently deny, both in private and in public,
that it is any closer to apprehending Mladic. Nevertheless,
the degree of scrutiny given to this most recent "Mladic
sighting" indicates a shift in expectations in the Serbian
public and among the political elite about the possibility of
Mladic being captured in the near future. End summary.


2. (u) Local and international media continue to speculate
about the possibility of Mladic,s capture. Since the story
initially broke on the basis of a report from a local Reuters
stringer in Republika Srpska that was carried on a local RS
TV station, press in Serbia have made a wide range of
predictions, all without any apparent factual basis - that
Mladic has been captured, that he is being held on a US
military base near Tuzla, that he has been located, and/or
that he has been surrounded at an undisclosed location.


3. (u) These stories, and similar speculation in the
international media (including most UK and US-based
electronic outlets) have continued for a second day despite
two separate denials from the Serbian government that Mladic
has been found or captured. Most recently, ICTY chief
prosecutor del Ponte released a statement aired on BBC World
denying that Mladic has been captured.


4. (c) We have canvassed a wide array of contacts in the
past 24 hours, including at the ministerial level in the SaM
government, and in the local ICTY office, the analytical
community, and the VBA and BIA. All report the same thing:
that there is no basis in fact for current reporting. Our
government contacts strenuously maintain that there has been
no breakthrough on Mladic, and our community and IO contacts
(and privately, some media contacts) say essentially the same
thing, with a lesser degree of certainty.


5. (c) Similar reports of Mladic,s capture originating
from a RS TV story were floated several months ago, obviously
without merit. While the government is unequivocal in its
public and private remonstrations that Mladic has been or is
close to being captured, the stories have generated follow-on
speculation in the analytical community that the GoS has
something in the works and is using these reports as a trial
balloon to gauge possible public reaction before announcing
the general's capture. One well-connected analyst told us on
February 21 that "there is no story today, but there might be
one in the days to come."


6. (c) COMMENT: While these reports themselves are not
new, they reflect a change in public and private expectations
at all levels of Serbian society that Mladic,s apprehension
is a real possibility, and might be a question of weeks or
months. Latest public opinion polls show majority support
for Mladic,s forcible arrest, and local analysts and
political contacts now seem more ready to believe that the
GoS may come through in the foreseeable future. We continue
to pulse our contacts regularly and will report further
developments as they occur.
MOORE