Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE2039
2006-12-20 15:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

SPS Confirms Milosevic Legacy

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #2039/01 3541548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201548Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9932
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3616
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1275
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 002039 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: SPS Confirms Milosevic Legacy

REF: A) Belgrade 1960; B) Belgrade 1927; C) Belgrade 1873

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SUMMARY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 002039

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: SPS Confirms Milosevic Legacy

REF: A) Belgrade 1960; B) Belgrade 1927; C) Belgrade 1873

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Milosevic's once-dominant Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)
will probably eke across the five percent threshold in Serbia's
upcoming January 21 parliamentary elections. A party congress
earlier this month revealed continued disarray, with "moderates"
winning a tough fight for the leadership and supporting a campaign
message that blends hardline rhetoric on Kosovo with a pledge to
continue working closely with PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of
Serbia (DSS). Any post-Milosevic soul searching will have to wait
until after the elections. For now, the SPS will have to focus on
revving up its party machinery to ensure it crosses the
participation threshold and remains politically relevant. End
Summary


2. (SBU) In a thirteen-hour marathon session on December 3, the SPS
elected Ivica Dacic, the head of the erstwhile moderate faction in
the party, to be the new head of the SPS. Dacic quickly moved to
shore up party unity ahead of the elections by pandering to the
party's hardline base, including supporting military action in
Kosovo, slamming The Hague Tribunal, and affirming Milosevic's
legacy. Hedging his bets, he also voiced open support for the DSS
and Kostunica, and SPS willingness to continue their cooperation
with the DSS during the next government. The runner up in the
leadership contest, traditional hardliner Milorad Vucelic, a loyal
Milosevic supporter and former vice president of the party, hardly
seemed with the program, revealing links between Dacic and criminal
tycoon Predrag Rankovic, the source of some of the financial support
for the SPS. While leading pollsters suggest that the SPS will
probably cross the threshold, the party will face an uphill battle
to mend internal fences and kick their parliamentary campaign into
high gear.

Socialist Party Congress Maintains Hardline Stance
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) In the run-off vote for the leadership, the over two
thousand Socialist party delegates from throughout Serbia elected
acting president Ivica Dacic as the first--and only other--party
president since the death of Milosevic. In the first round, Dacic
was supported by 1089 delegates while Milorad Vucelic, a staunch

Milosevic loyalist, garnered 633 votes. Former secretary general of
the SPS Zoran Andjelkovic (309) and old guard communist Petar
Skundric (196) rounded out the list. Dacic ultimately defeated
Vucelic in a second round of voting 1287 to 792, but then appointed
Vucelic and his other opponents to the Party's main board.


4. (SBU) With the media speculating heavily about the party's
survivability after Milosevic's death before the long-postponed
Congress, the event largely exploited messages of the past,
including Milosevic's legacy, Kosovo, and the Hague Tribunal. While
there were fewer pictures than in the past, the SPS had a number of
large photos of Milosevic plastered around the convention. The SPS
adopted a Resolution on the Historic Role of Slobodan Milosevic that
states, "Milosevic is a part of history, but also a part of the
present and future. There shall be no discontinuity." Ultimately,
the congress proved to be more of the same, and ensured that the
Socialists will continue to espouse the image and messages of
Milosevic throughout the campaign.


5. (SBU) On Kosovo, Dacic raised the stakes by suggesting the
possibility of war again to defend Kosovo "with all available
means." However, after being pressed about this statement during an
interview on the B92 television program Polygraph, Dacic recanted,
saying "Don't worry. Even if we wanted to go to war we have nothing
to go to war with." The Socialist also added to the anti-Hague
rhetoric, chiming in on the Radical-led campaign in support of
Seselj and arguing that there should be no extraditions to the Hague
because "those that defended the country are heroes, not criminals."
Presiding over a party riddled with contradictions, Dacic appears
content to try to appeal to both party moderates and hardliners in
the campaign, waiting until after the SPS is voted back into
parliament to begin the changes necessary to remold the SPS into a
leftist, social-democratic type of party that can survive on the
Serbian political scene.

...and Supports the DSS
--------------


6. (SBU) In the only surprise of the congress, the SPS underscored
its continued support for Kostunica and his policies. Kostunica gave
the SPS a boost in 2003 by making them the kingmaker for his
government, a role that paid the SPS handsome dividends in the
government's constant "negotiations" to retain SPS support.
Kostunica told the Ambassador privately at one point that, while he

BELGRADE 00002039 002 OF 002


would never join forces with the Radicals, he thought the SPS
offered an acceptable left of center option for the Serbian
electorate -- and that he was not opposed to forming a coalition
with the SPS in the future. SPS leaders have argued that support
for the DSS and Kostunica have allowed the Socialists to keep the
nemesis DS from being in government, a key goal. Dacic additionally
stressed that the new constitution would not have been adopted
without DSS and SPS support, linking the SPS to the "national
project" successes of the Kostunica government, including the
constitution and protecting Kosovo within Serbian borders.

COMMENT: SPS Struggling to Define Itself
--------------


7. (SBU) Already early in his chairmanship of the party, Dacic faces
a number of concerns over party unity, campaign messages and
behind-the-scenes undermining of his leadership by his opponent
Vucelic. Although Dacic tried to distance himself from Milosevic
after the latter was extradited to The Hague and Dacic was made the
party's acting president and head of its main board, Dacic now
appears to be trying to capitalize on the legacy of Milosevic to
unify the party--and the party base--ahead of the elections and a
decision on Kosovo. Dacic is probably unwilling to radically alter
the party platform only weeks away from the election for fear of
losing what little support the party has. Polls currently have the
SPS hovering near the threshold but major pollsters predict they
will make it into parliament given their supporters' high level of
loyalty and discipline. Already losing voters to the extremist
platform of the Radicals, Dacic may try to reform, modernize and
moderate the party after January 21, but for now, he is aiming to
boost momentum for the party heading into the parliamentary
elections primarily by one-upping Radical Party nationalist rhetoric
in an attempt to lure back the hardline base.


8. (SBU) Vucelic, meanwhile, will continue to resist any effort to
moderate the SPS message pre- or post-elections. He is a die-hard
Milosevic loyalist, having worked as the head of RTS, Milosevic's
propaganda machine, in the early 1990's. Vucelic, a vice president
of the party before the congress, believes that Milosevic's name
will still garner votes in Serbia, but he is also probably more
concerned with keeping power, and any money flow, for himself than
moving the party forward. Not long after the party congress ended,
our sources reported that there are now allegations that Dacic was
"heavily financed" by gambling kingpin Predrag Rankovic a.k.a.
Peconi, who owns a number of gambling centers in and around
Belgrade. In an effort to "legalize" his money, Rankovic has been
buying businesses and likely plans to use the SPS to get into
politics by providing them with much needed financial assistance.
Rankovic supposedly provided a great deal of financial aid directly
to Dacic, who used the money to ensure his resounding victory as
head of the SPS. In retaliation for his loss and marginalization
within the party, Vucelic has reportedly leaked the Rankovic story
to the press to undermine the SPS--and Dacic--and prevent the party
from crossing the threshold.


POLT