"Long Live Serbia" -- DSS Plumbing the Depths of

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001927

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: "Long Live Serbia" -- DSS Plumbing the Depths of
Serbian Populism

REF:

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Campaigning under the slogan "Long Live Serbia,"
PM Kostunica's DSS has made it abundantly clear that its
election campaign will revolve around "patriotic" issues,
especially Kosovo. Its coalition with populist mayors from
central Serbia (including a close associate of assassinated
war criminal Arkan) signals an effort to exploit localized,
conservative movements to increase its mandate. However, a
number of these junior coalition partners have dubious
pasts and dubious democratic credentials. The more DSS
provides an umbrella for these local chieftains, and the
more DSS ratchets up nationalist rhetoric on Kosovo as the
central theme of their campaign, the harder it will be for
the democratic bloc parties to form a future government
that will be constructive following a Kosovo final status
settlement.

Kostunica's New Coalition With Questionable Characters
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2. (SBU) Prime Minister Kostunica's DSS announced that it
plans to enter into a pre-election coalition with "New
Serbia" (NS),led by Minister of Capital Investment Velimir
Ilic, as well as United Serbia (JS) and the Serbian
Democratic Renewal Movement (SDPO). The election ticket
will be listed as "DSS-NS Vojislav Kostunica," with their
slogan "Long Live Serbia!" The List for Sadzak, supported
by Suljeman Ugljanin, will run aone in the election but
observers believe Ugljann will receive financial support
from the DSS durng the campaign and will align with the
DSS in te future parliament. The DSS announced that it
will campaign on what it calls the successful record of the
Kostunica government -including adoption of the new
constitution, and keeping Kosovo within Serbian borders.
The DSS coalition plans to complete its election list on
November 24.


3. (SBU) In courting these localized micro-parties, DSS is
betting on its populist coalition allies to add a
significant number of votes in central Serbia to the DSS-
led ticket. The DSS coalition partners include local
leaders who control their own regional fiefdoms by
exploiting frustration over low living standards and
fanning the flame of nationalism. An ancillary benefit to
the DSS is that these depressed regions are fertile
territory for exploiting passions over Kosovo - the main
DSS campaign theme. The ability of DSS to capture these
populists has no doubt been greatly facilitated by the
hasty departure from the political scene of Bogoljub Karic,
whose populist PSS had been polling at some 11-12 percent -
mostly at the expense of DSS and the Radicals. Karic and
his business interests were systematically decimated by the
government, ostensibly for alleged corrupt practices.

Fertile Soil for Populism
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4. (U) Polls consistently show that low living standards,
unemployment, and other economic issues are overwhelmingly
the greatest concerns for Serbs, especially outside of
Belgrade. While about 30 percent have traditionally
embraced extreme nationalism and Radicalism to vent their
frustrations, this trend has not shown growth since the
fall of Milosevic. The remainder of the dispossessed
(known locally as "transitional losers") has grown
frustrated with the democratic parties, which many voters
characterize as corrupt, ineffective, and inclined toward
needless squabbling. Additionally, many democratic leaders
are regularly described as distant and aloof from their
constituencies and rarely make an effort to reach out to
the public outside the confines of Belgrade. In
municipalities throughout central Serbia, populist leaders
have arisen who at least appear to listen to their
constituents and attempt to deliver tangible, if simplistic
and short-term, benefits. Many interlocutors in these
cities told poloff that these local parties/leaders draw
equally from supporters of the Radicals as well as from
established democratic parties.

Snapshot: Local Populist Leaders
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5. (U) Dragan "Palma" Markovic, head of the JS and mayor of

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Jagodina, is perhaps the most controversial member of this
new coalition. Palma was co-founder of the SSJ together
with accused war criminal Zeljko "Arkan" Raznatovic and was
one of the commanders of Arkan's paramilitary group, the
Tigers. After the wars, Palma developed a business empire
which included a transportation company and the populist
television station Palma Plus, which served as his own
propaganda tool. Palma is known for employing various
populist measures at the local level, including providing
free medicine to the elderly, chartering 55 buses for
supporters to attend a music festival, and even building a
small zoo. Palma has also secured lucrative government
contracts for his trucking firm and openly solicits bribes
from local business owners. The undisputed master of
Jagodina, Palma can probably deliver 15,000-20,000 votes to
the coalition. The DSS is defending its coalition with
Palma by arguing that the JS has no ties to the party of
Arkan and is building strong ties at the local level. Palma
highlights the fact that both he and Kostunica are both
from villages in the central Serbian region of Sumadija.


6. (U) In the rust-belt town of Kragujevac, by contrast,
SDPO leader and Mayor Veroslav "Verko" Stefanovic is a
pragmatic politician who stays away from ideological
battles. He was a co-founder of the SPO with Vuk Draskovic,
but split off last year to form the SDPO, taking with him 9
of the original 13 SPO MP positions in the last parliament.
Stefanovic is considered to be a populist who has secured
support from Belgrade for the local Zastava plant, thus
playing to his local base by making a tangible difference
on the ground. Stejanovic is also active in the Standing
Conference for Towns and Municipalities. Estimates are that
Stefanovic could deliver some 30,000 votes for DSS, though
these are likely to be on his personal appeal, not any
affiliation with SPO (which is widely seen as Draskovic's
sole domain).


7. (U) Suljeman Ugljanin, mayor of Novi Pazar and head of
the List for Sandzak (LZS) and the SDA, recently developed
strong ties with Kostunica to support his battle with
regional rival Rasim Ljajic - despite Kostunica having
previously discounted Ugljanin as a Bosniak separatist.
Ugljanin is widely believed to utilize undemocratic methods
to maintain control at the local level. Kostunica's
government undemocratically dissolved the local assembly in
Novi Pazar, the regional capital, after they approved a
recall motion against Ugljanin, while two LZS MPs,
initially on the DS ticket, switched allegiance to DSS.


8. (U) Velimir Ilic, current minister for Capital
Investment and head of the NS, is a larger than life
personality who provides the link between Belgrade and
Kostunica and the mayors at the local level (Ilic is a
former mayor of Cacak). Allegations of corruption have
been leveled against Ilic, and he has also been involved in
public fisticuffs and episodes of harsh verbal abuse with
journalists and other figures. Ilic and the NS' role in
the government have been critical in securing support for
Cacak and central Serbia, which has prospered greatly -
some would say, disproportionately - from government
infrastructure projects.

Comment
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9. (SBU) More cynical analysts believe DSS is showing its
true colors by entering into a coalition with local
powerbrokers in order to play on nationalistic sympathies
over Kosovo and thereby secure a strong mandate after the
parliamentary elections. Many of these leaders, including
Ilic and Palma, are nationalistic and/or corrupt, and will
share the DSS appeal to patriotism and victimization. The
DS has told us that they believe Kostunica's association
with Palma will be a net loss for the DSS, arguing that it
will repel urban DSS supporters. We have seen no evidence
to suggest this is true.

POLT