Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE1873
2006-11-20 06:32:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

Parliamentary Campaigns Begin In Serbia

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1873/01 3240632
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200632Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9752
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3587
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1250
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001873 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: Parliamentary Campaigns Begin In Serbia

REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610;

D) BELGRADE 1590

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001873

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: Parliamentary Campaigns Begin In Serbia

REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610;

D) BELGRADE 1590


1. (SBU) Summary: Serbian parliamentary elections are
scheduled for January 21, 2007. Parties have come out
swinging: aggressively working on their party lists and
possible coalitions and launching their opening salvos for
campaign themes. Kosovo is the predicable headline but
there are democratic parties pushing hard on economic and
quality of life themes as well. End Summary


2. (SBU) With the announcement of January 21 parliamentary
elections, Serbian political parties have wasted no time
beginning their campaigns and jockeying for pre-election
coalitions. The Democratic Party (DS) has already turned in
its official electoral list -- in order to be listed first
on the ballot -- that reflects deals with several smaller
parties, including Rasim Ljajic's Sandzak Democratic Party
(SDP),and is well stocked with women and minorities. Its
small but progressive and aggressive offshoot, the LDP has
lined up with several small but progressive democratic
parties including the Civic Alliance (GSS) the Social
Democratic Union (SDU) and the League of Social Democrats
of Vojvodina (LSV). The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)
is lining up with a collection of rural populist
nationalists, while the G17 plus continues to insist that
it will run alone, rejecting feelers from Draskovic's
Serbian Renewal Party (SPO) for a "technical alliance" that
would get them both over the five percent threshold.
Minority parties in Vojvodina, the Sandzak and southern
Serbia continue to mold their strategies for the election.

Election Commission Announces Regulations for Lists
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The Republic Election Commission (RIK) set January
5 as the deadline for submitting party lists of deputy
candidates with a required 10,000 certified signatures of
voters. RIK will officially announce each party's polling
list by January 10 and the final number of voters on
January 19. In a controversial move, the RIK defied the Law
on the Election of Parliamentary Deputies and announced
that minority parties and minority coalitions only need
3,000 certified signatures to submit their polling lists.

DS Kicks Off the Campaign
--------------


4. (SBU) The DS, led by President Tadic, is focusing its
campaign message on fighting poverty, improving the lives
of Serbian citizens, and moving Serbia closer to
integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. Tadic is
personally raising the stakes, announcing that he will pick
a suitable Prime Minister from the ranks of the DS. Press
is speculating that among the possible candidates are Ivan
Vujacic, current Serbian Ambassador to the United States,
and former ministers in the Djindjic government Gordana
Matkovic (social services and welfare) and Bozidar Djelic
(finance). However, Tadic will likely hold to his
agreement with Kostunica to allow the DSS to retain the
premiership. The parliamentary list for the DS is topped
by Ruzica Djinjic, the widow of former Prime Minister, and
also includes the original founder of DS Micunovic, all the
five DS vice-presidents as well as other former prominent
DS ministers in the Djindjic cabinet.

LDP+ Looking to Make Threshold
--------------


5. (SBU) The LDP+ coalition, including the LSV, GSS and
SDU, is planning a rally on November 18 to officially kick
off their campaign. During a press conference on November
11, Cedomir Jovanovic, head of the LDP, began laying the
groundwork of the campaign by accusing Kostunica of
following a policy of March 12, 2003--the day former Prime
Minister Zoran Djinjic was assassinated--and promising that
the LDP+ would instead follow the policy of October 5,
2000, the day Milosevic was ousted from power. The LDP+, as
the democratic alternative, appears to be banking on the
discontent over the referendum and the constitution, and
the boycott that many members see as positive proof that
many Serbs are unhappy with the democratic forces. Our
sources tell us that internal polls done by the DS have
confirmed Tadic's worst fear, that the LDP+ has already
reached or broken the five percent threshold.

G17 Plus Goes It Alone
--------------


BELGRADE 00001873 002 OF 003



6. (SBU) G17 Plus President Mladjan Dinkic announced on
Monday that his party will not enter into any pre-election
coalition, but will participate in the elections
independently. Their pre-election platform will include
strengthening the economy, increasing the number of jobs,
working towards candidacy in the EU and fighting against
radical chauvinism and corruption. Dinkic has expressed
hope that the G17 Plus can maintain their presence in
parliament after the elections and be an "essential part"
of the democratic bloc. Despite this positive kickoff, the
G17 Plus is taking a huge gamble by going it alone. The
G17 Plus has been close to threshold in recent polls, but
could end up being just short the necessary votes to enter
parliament in January.

DSS: Kosovo and the Constitution
--------------


7. (SBU) The DSS, headed by Prime Minister Kostunica, is
running on its success of bringing a new constitution into
force--a key promise of the Kostunica government--and
protecting the territorial integrity of Serbia with Kosovo
as its integral part. The DSS announced that it would base
its campaign on a policy of democratic reform and the
preservation of state unity, i.e. Kosovo, probably in an
effort to exploit the issue and increase turnout for their
party. In an expected move, the DSS chose Kostunica as
their candidate for the premiership. For now, it appears as
though the DSS will confirm a pre-election coalition with
several populist and nationalist rural parties including
Velimir Illic's New Serbia (NS); the United Serbia Party
(JS),a remnant of the Party of Serbia Unity headed by
notorious and now deceased paramilitary leader Arkan; and
the Serbian Democratic Renewal Movement (SDPO),the
renegade offshoot of Draskovic's SPO. Minority leaders
Jozsef Kasza and his Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM)
and Sulejman Ugljanin and his List for Sandzak will likely
run independently in the election, but our sources tell us
that they will both receive campaign support including
finances from the DSS and will likely align with Kostunica
after the election.

SPO: Looking for a Coalition Partner
--------------


8. (SBU) The SPO, led by Vuk Draskovic, appears to be
preparing to run independently in the campaign, but is also
continuing discussions with a number of possible coalition
partners, including the G17 plus. Our sources tell us that
there have been some meetings with Covic's Social
Democratic Party (SDP) and the DSS, but the SPO has
rejected these possibilities.

Minorities Shaping Strategies for the Election
-------------- -


9. (SBU) The Sandzak is poised to be volatile ground during
the campaign and both the DS and DSS are reaching out to
interlocutors in the predominately Muslim region. A recent
bomb attack against Democratic Action Party (SDA) Activist
Mahmut Hajrovic and his wife is yet another example of the
continuing political violence between rivals Sulejman
Ugljanin, head of the SDA and Rasim Ljajic, head of the
Sandzak Democratic Party and now with his minority allies
on the DS list (see below). The recent violence in Sandzak
and Ugljanin's ruthless effort to consolidate his power in
Novi Pazar promises to make the Sandzak a simmering hotspot
on the campaign trail.


10. (SBU) Ljajic's deal with the DS helped insulate him
from any of the fall-out from his home turf struggle with
Ugljanin. He is tenth on the DS list and obtained three
additional guaranteed MP slots with another possible four
depending on the overall DS results. Ugljanin will run
independently but with strong DSS support.


11. (SBU) Riza Halimi's Party for Democratic Action (PVD),
a moderate Albanian party in southern Serbia, meanwhile, is
in favor of participating in the election, but will
formally decide after consulting with and forming a
coalition with all other Albanian political parties.
Halimi may fall short of the natural threshold (turnout
divided by the 250 seats in the parliament, i.e., 13-15,000
votes) if he participates alone which would leave his party
both out of parliament and out of favor with his co-ethnics
in southern Serbia and Kosovo.

SPS and SRS: Party Congress and Unclear Leadership
-------------- --------------

BELGRADE 00001873 003 OF 003




12. (SBU) Because of its upcoming party congress in
December, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has yet to
announce possible names on its ticket or what its messages
will be to the public during the campaign. The party
congress could prove divisive for the SPS as the party
struggles to chose a new leader after the void left by the
death of Milosevic in March. The SRS, meanwhile, remains
distracted by the trial of their formal leader, Vojislav
Seselj, in the Hague and his continuing hunger strike in
protest of what he perceives as unfair treatment. The
Radicals announced that they will fight against crime and
corruption and work on modernizing Serbia in addition to
its constant nationalist drum beating on the Kosovo issue.

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) With campaign season in high gear, it will be
difficult for the parties to focus on little but the
impending parliamentary election. Ahtisaari's decision to
postpone a decision on Kosovo and its prominence as a
campaign theme for the DSS as well as the Radicals and
Socialist, will ensure that Kosovo stays center stage all
during the short campaign season. We will continue to move
forward with our GOTV campaign and democratic roundtables
throughout the country to both support the democratic bloc
in this crucial campaign and encourage high voter
participation. The election will surely be instrumental in
the tone for the Kosovo end-game when it continues after
voters cast their ballots on January 21. It may also be a
crucial moment in Serbia's democratic transition pitting
nationalist themes against hopes for a Euro-Atlantic
future. End Comment
Polt